I think the Big Ten's plan is probably going to twenty teams in the relatively short-term, adding six teams with a combination of solid athletics and AAU academics that ideally add television markets. I think in that situation they'll end up just scheduling round-robin with each team getting three protected cross-overs. I used to be a huge advocate for a pod-style scheduling system, but I think it unnecessarily limits recruiting opportunities, especially with a conference bigger than 16 teams.
Four of the six teams to me are very clear. Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia are obvious choices. All are AAU members with decent athletics, decent brands, and add new television markets. It also become far and away the best college basketball conference with Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, etc.
I know people will doubt the ACC raid, but I think the Alliance was more of a means to an end for the Big Ten to loosen the ESPN-SEC death-grip than some kind of long-term partnership. The ACC is pretty weak right now with Virginia Tech, Florida State, Louisville, and Syracuse all letting their athletic programs kind of slip recently. Clemson also has lost a lot of its luster in the past couple months with their down football season. I would imagine the Big Ten will attempt to capitalize on that.
The Pac-12 is a much tougher raid and why I think the Big Ten will stay away for now. They have a really strong core of universities, both from an academic and athletic perspective (UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Utah, Washington) and I think if the Big Ten is going to land any of those teams, it's going to have to be a package in a potential merger situation.
That leaves two spots for three candidates, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Iowa State. They're the only other AAU schools that have legitimate P5 athletics that aren't already tied to the Pac-12 or SEC. Each have their own pros and cons. Pitt gives the Big Ten another mega-market (but one that probably is already captured by Penn State) and gives Penn State a natural rival. Pitt also seems to be a pretty good fit culturally. Iowa State brings a good program, a fantastic existing rivalry with Iowa, and could help continue to capture the markets in the Midwest that I don't think the Big Ten does as well in (Kansas City and St. Louis). They also are seemingly a tremendous fit culturally, with Campbell bucking Big 12 trends in recent years by playing defense. Georgia Tech brings a great media market, but one where they're often overshadowed by the SEC. I don't think they're a very good fit culturally, but it could make it easier for the Big Ten to recruit the deep south.
If you twisted my arm, I think I'd say the two schools in that group that make the most sense for the Big Ten are Pitt and Iowa State. It also soften the blow of the ACC raid by not taking Georgia Tech as well, effectively destroying that conference by leaving it with nine teams. I also think that if the Big Ten starts to expand, the SEC will do the same and Georgia Tech and Florida State would seemingly be prime candidates.
I understand the doubt that Iowa would approve of Iowa State joining the Big Ten and it's the same situation with Penn State and Pitt, but we're in a very different landscape. We are rapidly approaching CFB "end-times" and I think schools are more worried about securing their own future and the future of their conference than small in-state recruiting advantages. When the initial round of expansions happened, everyone was saying that Oklahoma would never leave the Big 12 without Oklahoma State. Partnerships like that are going to be relatively thin going forward.
The situation with Iowa and Matt Campbell does provide a bit of CyHawk spice, though. Campbell is obviously very talented and a beast of a coach for Iowa State. Would Iowa temporarily attempt to hold an Iowa State-Big Ten invitation if they thought that Campbell would jump ship with Iowa State "stuck" in the new Big 12? I am not sure.
If Iowa State did score an invite, their football schedule would look something like Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas (the protected games), six round-robin games against the rest of the Big Ten, one "Alliance" game (the Pac 12 and the ACC now combine for 22 teams, so the Big Ten member will be guaranteed one of those games with two Pac-12/ACC teams sitting out each year), and two non-conference, home, paid, tune-up games against low-level FBS teams.
Long-term, I think the end-goal is to force some kind of merger with the Pac-12, at least in terms of television rights and other shared resources, then to pick up any quality programs left from non-SEC conferences. They could even have a shared conference championship game at the Rose Bowl. Selling the football television rights for 40+ teams with several premiere programs from coast-to-coast so you can provide a full slate of games with a Thursday night game, a Friday night game, and games from 10:00 AM on Saturday Morning to 1:00 AM early Sunday morning is a pretty big hammer to be swinging around. The basketball with a conference like that essentially becomes the premiere basketball league in the country, rivaling even the NBA in terms of entertainment value and actually could go a long ways towards getting some of the dormant college basketball programs (UCLA, for example) back on the map.
Four of the six teams to me are very clear. Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia are obvious choices. All are AAU members with decent athletics, decent brands, and add new television markets. It also become far and away the best college basketball conference with Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, etc.
I know people will doubt the ACC raid, but I think the Alliance was more of a means to an end for the Big Ten to loosen the ESPN-SEC death-grip than some kind of long-term partnership. The ACC is pretty weak right now with Virginia Tech, Florida State, Louisville, and Syracuse all letting their athletic programs kind of slip recently. Clemson also has lost a lot of its luster in the past couple months with their down football season. I would imagine the Big Ten will attempt to capitalize on that.
The Pac-12 is a much tougher raid and why I think the Big Ten will stay away for now. They have a really strong core of universities, both from an academic and athletic perspective (UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Utah, Washington) and I think if the Big Ten is going to land any of those teams, it's going to have to be a package in a potential merger situation.
That leaves two spots for three candidates, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Iowa State. They're the only other AAU schools that have legitimate P5 athletics that aren't already tied to the Pac-12 or SEC. Each have their own pros and cons. Pitt gives the Big Ten another mega-market (but one that probably is already captured by Penn State) and gives Penn State a natural rival. Pitt also seems to be a pretty good fit culturally. Iowa State brings a good program, a fantastic existing rivalry with Iowa, and could help continue to capture the markets in the Midwest that I don't think the Big Ten does as well in (Kansas City and St. Louis). They also are seemingly a tremendous fit culturally, with Campbell bucking Big 12 trends in recent years by playing defense. Georgia Tech brings a great media market, but one where they're often overshadowed by the SEC. I don't think they're a very good fit culturally, but it could make it easier for the Big Ten to recruit the deep south.
If you twisted my arm, I think I'd say the two schools in that group that make the most sense for the Big Ten are Pitt and Iowa State. It also soften the blow of the ACC raid by not taking Georgia Tech as well, effectively destroying that conference by leaving it with nine teams. I also think that if the Big Ten starts to expand, the SEC will do the same and Georgia Tech and Florida State would seemingly be prime candidates.
I understand the doubt that Iowa would approve of Iowa State joining the Big Ten and it's the same situation with Penn State and Pitt, but we're in a very different landscape. We are rapidly approaching CFB "end-times" and I think schools are more worried about securing their own future and the future of their conference than small in-state recruiting advantages. When the initial round of expansions happened, everyone was saying that Oklahoma would never leave the Big 12 without Oklahoma State. Partnerships like that are going to be relatively thin going forward.
The situation with Iowa and Matt Campbell does provide a bit of CyHawk spice, though. Campbell is obviously very talented and a beast of a coach for Iowa State. Would Iowa temporarily attempt to hold an Iowa State-Big Ten invitation if they thought that Campbell would jump ship with Iowa State "stuck" in the new Big 12? I am not sure.
If Iowa State did score an invite, their football schedule would look something like Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas (the protected games), six round-robin games against the rest of the Big Ten, one "Alliance" game (the Pac 12 and the ACC now combine for 22 teams, so the Big Ten member will be guaranteed one of those games with two Pac-12/ACC teams sitting out each year), and two non-conference, home, paid, tune-up games against low-level FBS teams.
Long-term, I think the end-goal is to force some kind of merger with the Pac-12, at least in terms of television rights and other shared resources, then to pick up any quality programs left from non-SEC conferences. They could even have a shared conference championship game at the Rose Bowl. Selling the football television rights for 40+ teams with several premiere programs from coast-to-coast so you can provide a full slate of games with a Thursday night game, a Friday night game, and games from 10:00 AM on Saturday Morning to 1:00 AM early Sunday morning is a pretty big hammer to be swinging around. The basketball with a conference like that essentially becomes the premiere basketball league in the country, rivaling even the NBA in terms of entertainment value and actually could go a long ways towards getting some of the dormant college basketball programs (UCLA, for example) back on the map.
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