Latest Bracketology
- Thread starter goody2012
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I’ll never forget a couple of years ago when Palm’s bowl projections had K-State in the Alamo Bowl. And they were the last Big 12 team “picked” and ended up in the lowest B12 bowl. He’s terrible.
Palm is ranked #100 on Bracket Matrix. Completely worthless opinion when it comes to making brackets
The best bracketologists have us as the top 6 seed
Latest Bracketology – DelphiBracketology
delphibracketology.com
I'm 90% sure Palm intentionally makes a terrible bracket to troll fanbases. He's so bad at it.
For the record, I love Bracketology. I live on Bracket Matrix in February and March. It's a really good guide that most fans are oblivious to. So many fans think you have to be 21-10 to get in the tourney when 17-14 with the right wins is good enough.
Latest Bracket from Lunardi has Iowa State holding steady as a 7 seed...and I fully realize he's not good at this and it's all fun and games, but would hate the draw he has us.
Palm on the other hand has ISU a 5 seed and if we could get that bracket I'd take it all day every day. Plus he has Iowa an 11 seed and IF they were to beat LSU they'd face Texas Tech. Can you imagine how bad they'd look against Tech? Yeesh.
Palm on the other hand has ISU a 5 seed and if we could get that bracket I'd take it all day every day. Plus he has Iowa an 11 seed and IF they were to beat LSU they'd face Texas Tech. Can you imagine how bad they'd look against Tech? Yeesh.
Does anyone remember a site a few years ago from some college (I think so anyway...maybe some college in Florida) that had some RPI or predictive tourney chances listed out? It basically was just a list of all schools with a % next to each on how likely they were to make the tourney and then listed where the bubble burst and anyone below that line was out? It may not be relevant anymore with the NET but now it's bugging me that I can't remember it or find it.
Torvik has the tourney chance % in its conference standings. I think ISU is still 99%. Iowa has dropped down to 90% now, they were virtually a lock a couple weeks ago.
No. This was literally just a webpage of teams ranked 1-300 or whatever it is. Just a small explanation at the top, no logos, etc. But they were pretty spot on year after year of who would make and miss the tourney
FOUND IT! It was called Dance Card. Looks like they haven't done it in a few years.
Team Rankings only has Iowa as a 70% chance. Iowa State is at 82%
Bit surprised at this, but Palm still has Iowa State as a 5 seed in his latest Bracketology.
We need to start paying attention to other teams and their resumes...and if you do that, despite our atrocious offense, our resume is still a LOT better than many many teams looking to get at large bids. Just need to win a few more.
We also need to realize that our 7 losses, despite the margins, are all to teams that will very likely be NCAA tourney teams. Kansas (2), Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma.
We need to start paying attention to other teams and their resumes...and if you do that, despite our atrocious offense, our resume is still a LOT better than many many teams looking to get at large bids. Just need to win a few more.
We also need to realize that our 7 losses, despite the margins, are all to teams that will very likely be NCAA tourney teams. Kansas (2), Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma.
Interesting. IF ISU gets to 20 wins TR has them at 95.6% odds of in NCAA (65.6% at 19 wins). Iowa has to get to 22 wins to get to 95.4% (80.2% at 21 wins, 42.0% at 20 wins).
So, ISU (16-7) has to win 4 games to be a virtual lock (projected to win 5). If ISU wins 5, they are at 100% in.
Iowa (15-7) has to win 7 games and they are only projected to win 5. If Iowa only wins 5, they are at 42%.
Iowa would have to win 3 out of @MD, @tOSU, @MI, @ILL, MSU at home.
So, our tougher SOS buys us a two game float over Iowa for same probabilities.
So, ISU (16-7) has to win 4 games to be a virtual lock (projected to win 5). If ISU wins 5, they are at 100% in.
Iowa (15-7) has to win 7 games and they are only projected to win 5. If Iowa only wins 5, they are at 42%.
Iowa would have to win 3 out of @MD, @tOSU, @MI, @ILL, MSU at home.
So, our tougher SOS buys us a two game float over Iowa for same probabilities.
Using Torvik's tool called Teamcast, you can change games to wins/losses and see how it affects Tournament seeding/chances. For this scenario, I gave ISU a win in every home game the rest of the way and a loss in every road game. Win one in KC vs. OU before losing to Kansas. This scenario would still have us a 7-seed. 5-11 in Q1, 7-1 in Q2.
Looking at the schedule, every home game from here on out will very likely be a Q2 game while every road game will be a Q1 (these could fluctuate as West Virginia, K-State, and Oklahoma State aren't too far off from the cutoffs). You obviously never want to lose any game, especially a home game, but getting one more Q1 win on the road would fully solidify the resume I'd think.
Here's the link to home wins, road losses scenario.
Looking at the schedule, every home game from here on out will very likely be a Q2 game while every road game will be a Q1 (these could fluctuate as West Virginia, K-State, and Oklahoma State aren't too far off from the cutoffs). You obviously never want to lose any game, especially a home game, but getting one more Q1 win on the road would fully solidify the resume I'd think.
Here's the link to home wins, road losses scenario.
Using that tool, we can win ONLY the K-State and WV games at home and still by 2nd team out. I think we're much closer to a lock than most think. 3 wins and we're in.
I had us being last team winning 2 more home games and the wv game on the road, losing first rd of the conf tourney and we were the last team in...at 5-13 (crazy)
