Latest Bracketology

[cyfan92]

Bracketville has ISU now a 6 seed facing the winner of a play-in game between San Fran and Indiana.

Dave’s Bracket

This is where you will find my bracket projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication, the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape currently stands. Bra…

bracketville.wordpress.com

NICE!! A top 10 bracket maker on Bracket Matrix and one of the my top 3 - Bracketville (he's been good for longer than everyone else in the top 10), Delphi (Tied #2) and Heat Check/Lukas Harkins (Tied #2).

 

[ScottyP]

If West Virginia were to somehow climb up just three spots in the net rankings, that would give us another quad 2 win.

 

[dahliaclone]

Side note, Rothstein tweets more than anyone I have ever seen. Good God it’s just non-stop.

And his stupid sayings are just cringey. I hate him.

 

[cyfan92]

Will someone explain to me how ISU is a 7-9 seed while these teams are consistently rated ahead of us?

Iowa State: Q1 wins: 9, Q1+Q2 record: 10-9 with no bad losses

Iowa: Q1 wins: 1, Q1+Q2 record: 7-8 and no bad losses
Ohio St: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 9-8 with one bad loss to Nebby
USC: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 10-4 and one bad loss to Stanford
LSU: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 9-8 with one bad loss to Ole Miss
Mich St: Q1 wins: 4, Q1+Q2: 11-9 with one bad loss to Northwestern

These are all teams we need to actively cheer against.

Should include Marquette as well: Q1 wins: 6, Q1+Q2: 9-10 and no bad losses. No resume games left until the conference tournament.

Iowa has 2 Q1 games remaining. Both on the road. Michigan and Illinois
OSU has Q2 games at home to MSU and Nebby. Ideally go 1-1 this week to avoid giving MSU another Q1 win.
LSU plays @ Arkansas tonight (GO HOGS!) and hosts Bama to finish the season (ROLL TIDE). Both are Q1.
USC is at UCLA on Saturday. Go UCLA!
MSU has 1 Q1 at OSU tomorrow. Then hosts Maryland to close (Q3). Would LOVE to see Izzo loose out.

 

[SolarGarlic]

It doesn't help when CBS's Jon Rothstein is calling us overachievers...

Sports Betting and DFS News with Analysis | FanDuel Research

Get the latest sports betting and DFS news from the experts at FanDuel Research. Join our community of sports enthusiasts and take your game to the next level.

www.fanduel.com

I mean, we are. Rothstein is ranking the teams, not projecting their place in the bracket.

 

[SolarGarlic]

I think some people got burned taking ISU in past tournaments so they want to revel in how painful it has been.

There is an aspect of this, and it annoys me. Nobody realizes that we've actually been good in the 1st round of the tournament because all they remember is UAB and Hampton.

 

[SolarGarlic]

And his stupid sayings are just cringey. I hate him.

I love Rothstein. He knows the sayings are dumb. He's just leaning into the schtick. He's good for college basketball.

 

[twincyties]

If the committee values quality wins and looks at head-to-head there is no way Iowa is seeded higher than us.

I would say same thing with Ohio State. They have some nice wins (Duke the big one, but also teams like Wisonsin), but some really bad losses like Nebraska at home and Maryland.

They also lost to teams like Xavier, Florida, etc in non conference.

Committee should put us ahead of them as well.

 

[cyfan92]

I mean, we are. Rothstein is ranking the teams, not projecting their place in the bracket.

I think it's more perception. Rather than acknowledging the strong resume, like he does to other teams,. A national writer is reducing our accomplishments and dismissing us as relevant.

 

[drmwevr08]

There is an aspect of this, and it annoys me. Nobody realizes that we've actually been good in the 1st round of the tournament because all they remember is UAB and Hampton.

But it only takes a few of those to taint the rest.

 

[SolarGarlic]

But it only takes a few of those to taint the rest.

Right, but it's not accurate to say we always lose in the 1st round. And I have friends who are casual college basketball fans that fully believe this. But as soon as I start explaining that we're actually pretty good in the 1st round, they've already stopped listening.

 

[qwerty]

I think it's more perception. Rather than acknowledging the strong resume, like he does to other teams,. A national writer is reducing our accomplishments and dismissing us as relevant.

NCAA First round: ISU is 11-4 in last 30 years, 6-2 in last 20 years, 5-2 in last 10 years (the 2000s were lean years)

 

[CascadeClone]

It's been mentioned many times before, but apparently seeding is more correlated with SOR than NET.
Our ESPN BPI SOR is 22nd, ie the 2nd 6 seed.

So let's hope SOR trumps efficiency metrics when the set it all up.

 

[cyfan92]

I continue to believe that 1 more win locks us into a 6 seed. A loss tonight, Saturday and next Thursday pushes us to the 7 line.

 

[VeloClone]

NCAA First round: ISU is 11-4 in last 30 years, 6-2 in last 20 years, 5-2 in last 10 years (the 2000s were lean years)

ISU had the better seed in 12 of those in the last 30 years and 6 in the last 20 years. They had the better seed in 6 in the last 10 years as well.

So generally they have first round records in line with their seeding.

 

[Cydkar]

Side note, Rothstein tweets more than anyone I have ever seen. Good God it’s just non-stop.

I'll let you in on a secret, if you want.

 

[Cydkar]

There is an aspect of this, and it annoys me. Nobody realizes that we've actually been good in the 1st round of the tournament because all they remember is UAB and Hampton.

Can't blame them. That's what I remember.

 

[drmwevr08]

Looks like they've been one and done about 1 of 3. Not sure how that stacks up.
lower seed one less time than 1st round loss.

 

[cyclones500]

NCAA First round: ISU is 11-4 in last 30 years, 6-2 in last 20 years, 5-2 in last 10 years (the 2000s were lean years)

That's probably comparable to any programs outside of perennial powers. Also a lot depends on seeding and "expected" performance. That partly explains ISU's big stunners draw attention, losing as a 2 and as a 3 ... albeit almost 15 years apart.

Random ex: Duke has a loss as a 2 and a 3 in past decade, but when you have multiple deep runs interspersed, there's more balance.

(Subject to verification, compiled this quickly) --> ISU has advanced to or above its seed level (in all rounds) each appearane since '85 with 4 exceptions (1993, 2001, 2015, 2019 ... '93 was an 8/9 game). One round above its seed 5 times (1986, 1992, 1997, 2005 [a 9-over-8] and 2013).

So it's mostly par-for-course, although having some seasons with a couple of rounds beyond seed might provide better balance for those 1st-round flameouts.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Can't blame them. That's what I remember.

Really? I remember all of our first round wins because they were fun, and there is nothing like the tournament.

My point is their perception is inaccurate.