I think the time slot thing is a complete cop out. All we heard about the last couple years is "PAC after dark." USC and Oregon didn't play hardly any late night games, and played on good networks. And when comparing games on networks those two didn't perform much differently in those slots as "no value" Iowa State.If the Pac12 believes that UO and UW are staying, they will VERY likely stick together, just like the Big12 did. They will look at it as the least bad option. And I don't think they will have any luck trying to poach any Big12 teams. I know they wanted Houston, but at this point is Pac12 better for Houston than Big12? I don't think so.
FWIW I agree with the Fox guy who said Big12+Pac12 = 22 conference makes sense. It's better visibility for the west coast schools wrt TV slots and market, for sure. I thought that BEFORE USC/UCLA dipped out. Now, its probably even more important. But for the Big12, other than stability via sheer size, I am not sure how much it helps - maybe it's a little more tv revenue per school, idk.
Where it will make a difference in a merger is there is a good chance at least some of the games for the PAC schools that at least one of the two teams playing in the game will have fans that actually give a **** and watch. Tired of hearing the PAC apologists say a merger makes sense because of time zones. No, it makes sense because no one watches your league.
And the big 12's choice is not about boosting revenue or watering it down. Everybody left in the PAC waters down per team revenue except Oregon for sure, Utah and UW probably don't change it much, and the rest probably hurt it. However, the Big 12 can't sit back and look at per team revenues and make decisions simply based on that. It's more about who can you add that gives you enough numbers and geography locked down to help keep access to a playoff. I don't care what anybody says, the networks or P2 aren't going to lock out the states of Washington, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas and Northern CA from the playoff. Not for any altruistic reasons, but I don't think it makes financial sense to do so, especially when you consider what they'd have to pay and risk to try to blow up and destabilize the Big 12 (and ACC).
The way ESPN makes the most money is keeping as many teams a part of the playoff chase while the SEC dominates the berths. Let's say the PAC and ACC dissolve and you end up with 3 main leagues - Big 10, SEC, and Big 12, each with 18-20 teams. Give all three champs an autobid. Then divvy up the remaining at large bids among the SEC and Big 10. Losing that one slot to the Big 12 is small potatoes, and you keep all the current Power conference fan bases engaged in your product.