Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[State2015]

I do hope it works out that Wazzou and OrST can get in the Big 12, meaning that TV will pay for it. I hate the idea of existing p5 schools getting left out.

Agree. And I know it sounds bad, but if P5 schools get left behind, I'd rather it be BC, Wake Forest, Cuse, some of those smaller east coast schools that have near-zero fan support. OR St. and Wazzu seem to have small but passionate fans

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Did we get paid for away games on the LHN?? Same deal. Home team gets the dough.

BS that ut got paid too! Unbelievable, yet totally believable.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

We gotta stop this. No, I disagree heartily.

I should clarify, if both the SEC and B1G go to 24.

 

[heitclone]

Agree. And I know it sounds bad, but if P5 schools get left behind, I'd rather it be BC, Wake Forest, Cuse, some of those smaller east coast schools that have near-zero fan support. OR St. and Wazzu seem to have small but passionate fans

Syracuse has a huge fanbase, they are arguably the most popular nyc school. Espn is basically an alumni chapter. They won't go anywhere.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If the B1G is at 20, SEC 16, Big 12 16 when the ACC gets picked apart:

These schools will get in the B1G/SEC without much doubt:
Miami
Florida State
North Carolina
Virginia
Clemson
Notre Dame

These schools would get in the Big 12 at worst, and probably 2 of them are getting in the SEC or B1G:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse

These schools might get in somewhere but might get demoted:
Duke
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest

If you give 4 of these schools to each of the 3 conferences, you’re left with 3 to demote.

 

[Cloneon]

I think one of the B1G or SEC can get to 24. The B1G could add four more Pac-12 schools plus four ACC schools (or three plus Notre Dame). The SEC could add four ACC schools and stop at 20. The Big 12 would be in position to add four Pac-12 corner schools plus potentially four ACC leftovers to also get to 20.

This would be a total of 64 schools; there are 69 P5 programs counting the Big 12 additions. So we are looking at probably 2 demotions from the Pac (WSU, OSU) and three from the ACC (Wake, BC, and one more…) Duke getting demoted would really be evidence of how much football drives the bus. They would get in the Big East immediately though and be fine.

Something tells me ND and the rumor of Yormark spinning deals with them is the wild card with the B1G. If Yormark works an NBC media deal with ND and then counters with a competition deal with the B1G, things would begin to make sense of the Warren / Yormark relationship.

 

[EnkAMania]

They’re counting western Nebraska for their mountain time representation. Because I’m sure there’s a lot of viewership numbers in western Nebraska.

Ole's Big Game Lounge in Paxton Nebraska is usually packed.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Yes I don't think we're joining any other conference anytime soon.

Maybe if the P3 happens (with the B12 consuming parts of the Pac 12 + ACC), and we dominate that league for 20 years and expand our stadium to like 70-90k, we have a shot at the SEC.

But at that point, maybe the B12 can grow enough to have more competitive payouts. Who knows what the environment looks like that far into the future.

I always thought the end game was 60-70 schools breaking away from the NCAA and forming THE conference. Once they get 64 they can perform their own March Madness and would guess that'll align with CBS current tourney contract with the NCAA. The key even the first conference missile crisis was to build ISU to be 1 of the 64 to be viable. The past 10 years improvements would have us in but not a total lock. If the B12 becomes the P3 conference there will be more of a case to break with B10 and SEC when that final 60-70 are set and should be our goal. Granted being #3 is still going to be 50 mil less than the P2 payouts but it is possible a 3rd net work (CBS/NBC) pays up for the only other college content and closes the gap.

 

[Rods79]

Normally I think this guy is full of ****, but I like what he is saying here so now I think he is a really smart guy.

Still full of it...dude hates the Big12 like everyone else...days before he was heavily questioning our ability to take any PAC teams and more-or-less siding the Wilner/Canzano/Mandel PAC Hydra. Now he is sing-songin' along.

Amazing how bad his opinion was in a matter of hours. Typically these guys would even out the intensity of how wrong they were over time.

 

[Rods79]

Warren has proven to be a snake, so I wouldn't get super thrilled about him seeming to buddy up with Yormark. He'll shank us as fast as he shanked the Pac 12.

If shanks are involved, I'm glad we have Yormark and not that casulty-of-war, Kliavkoff.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Something tells me ND and the rumor of Yormark spinning deals with them is the wild card with the B1G. If Yormark works an NBC media deal with ND and then counters with a competition deal with the B1G, things would begin to make sense of the Warren / Yormark relationship.

Those two things are in tension though. If we work with ND to try to get NBC deals together and keep their independence tenable, the B1G is not going to be inclined to team up with us and bolster our league when its strength now means ND’s independence is also strong. The B1G would wanna push us down, make NBC drop us after one contract, and give ND no other place to go.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Still full of it...dude hates the Big12 like everyone else...days before he was heavily questioning our ability to take any PAC teams and more-or-less siding the Wilner/Canzano/Mandel PAC Hydra. Now he is sing-songin' along.

Amazing how bad his opinion was in a matter of hours. Typically these guys would even out the intensity of how wrong they were over time.

Agreed, but the fact that even he, a Big 12 hater, is saying the Big 12 is the P3 is a pretty good sign IMO.

 

[Cloneon]

Those two things are in tension though. If we work with ND to try to get NBC deals together and keep their independence tenable, the B1G is not going to be inclined to team up with us and bolster our league when its strength now means ND’s independence is also strong. The B1G would wanna push us down, make NBC drop us after one contract, and give ND no other place to go.

It's all a matter of perspective. If ND's message to the B1G is clear and NBC meets ND's expectations, the B1G would be foolish to tarnish any reputation with ND.

 

[isucy86]

I don't see 24 happening without the Big 12 losing teams. I would assume AAU or not if the B1G goes to 24 ISU would have a good shot at that, or even the SEC.

Money is driving realignment. Doesn't seem like there is much incremental $ for Big10 to add Iowa State when they already have Iowa. IMO we have a small chance at the SEC if they have an eye on new westward markets.

But I think the SEC's main westward targets would be high DMA's like Phoenix (#11), Denver (#16), Portland (#21), Salt Lake (#30) or Kansas City (#34). And then eastward: NC (#10 Charlotte & Raleigh), Miami (#18). Throw in a GA Tech & Clemson for good measure and the SEC can easily get to 24. As we have seen in realignment, having solid sports programs is secondary to eyeballs (carriage fees) for BTN & SECN.

 

[Rods79]

Agreed, but the fact that even he, a Big 12 hater, is saying the Big 12 is the P3 is a pretty good sign IMO.

Also agreed. Although I think Yormark knows how to play this game and if the B1G is using us to open the ACC, we aren’t going to be stuck with all the also-rans. There has got to be some meat on the bone for the Big12…maybe that is ORWA.

 

[HawaiiClone]

Agree. And I know it sounds bad, but if P5 schools get left behind, I'd rather it be BC, Wake Forest, Cuse, some of those smaller east coast schools that have near-zero fan support. OR St. and Wazzu seem to have small but passionate fans

Was curious to see what kind of crowds BC got at their games last year and saw that they mostly outdrew Ore St with the same sized stadium. I, too, would like to see OSU stay at the P5 level, but their crowds at least are below P5 average which doesn't help. Throwing Iowa State into this discussion, with the crowds we get it would seem average Joe college football fan would want us to be in the mix with the best teams in college football.

2021 Boston College Eagles football team - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2021 Oregon State Beavers football team - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Trice]

Still full of it...dude hates the Big12 like everyone else...days before he was heavily questioning our ability to take any PAC teams and more-or-less siding the Wilner/Canzano/Mandel PAC Hydra. Now he is sing-songin' along.

Amazing how bad his opinion was in a matter of hours. Typically these guys would even out the intensity of how wrong they were over time.

With the caveat, as always, that this guy or his source could be full of sht...he's pretty clearly laid out why the thinking has changed. Seems weird that people think they should pick a side and ride with it until the bitter end.

Ten years ago, the Big 12 nearly ceased to exist. Was someone who reported on that in real time wrong when it ultimately held together? Of course not - the facts changed.

There have been numerous shifts this time around. First, it looked like the Pac was doomed. Then it looked like it might hold. Warren's comments may have shaken things up again. It's fluid and people can change their thinking.

 

[JohnnyFive]

Syracuse has a huge fanbase, they are arguably the most popular nyc school. Espn is basically an alumni chapter. They won't go anywhere.

Agree. ESPN literally told Syracuse to get out of the Big East before they torched it

 

[CascadeClone]

I always thought the end game was 60-70 schools breaking away from the NCAA and forming THE conference. Once they get 64 they can perform their own March Madness and would guess that'll align with CBS current tourney contract with the NCAA. The key even the first conference missile crisis was to build ISU to be 1 of the 64 to be viable. The past 10 years improvements would have us in but not a total lock. If the B12 becomes the P3 conference there will be more of a case to break with B10 and SEC when that final 60-70 are set and should be our goal. Granted being #3 is still going to be 50 mil less than the P2 payouts but it is possible a 3rd net work (CBS/NBC) pays up for the only other college content and closes the gap.

That's the penultimate end game.

After that step, comes the Premier League rapture. 20-24 of the biggest brands dip out to the Premier league. But there will easily be enough teams and interest to continue for the left behinds.

 

[JohnnyFive]

With the caveat, as always, that this guy or his source could be full of sht...he's pretty clearly laid out why the thinking has changed. Seems weird that people think they should pick a side and ride with it until the bitter end.

Ten years ago, the Big 12 nearly ceased to exist. Was someone who reported on that in real time wrong when it ultimately held together? Of course not - the facts changed.

There have been numerous shifts this time around. First, it looked like the Pac was doomed. Then it looked like it might hold. Warren's comments may have shaken things up again. It's fluid and people can change the thinking.

The Big 12 has a good product, and fans that care. Also, its centralized, so it works to add east and/or west. It has potential to be a nationwide league/any time zone.