im ready for the season and for dekkers to basically shut up everyone who doesn't believe he's going to be better than BP.
With Dekkers under helm…
- Thread starter KremitGreens
- Start date
Here are two players:
Accuracy% (looks only at passes where QB was not hit as he was throwing, spiking the ball, throwing it away, or drops by WRs to better evaluate the QB's accuracy vs. completion percentage which is impacted by these issues)
Player A: 77.3%
Player B: 78.7%
Avg QB*: 70.9%
Big Time Throw % (a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value. While the value is easy to see statistically, the difficulty has more to do with passes that have a lower completion percentage)
Player A: 8.3%
Player B: 2.6%
Avg QB*: 4.6%
Interception % (percent of attempts intercepted)
Player A: 3.2%
Player B: 2.0%
Avg QB*: 2.4%
Avg Depth of Target (how far is the pass going down field)
Player A: 11.8
Player B: 7.5
Avg QB*: 9.6
*Avg QB is the Avg QB from 2021 with at least 100 Attempts
I think player A is making bigger plays (+5.7 pts Big Time Throw rate), targeting players further down field (+4.3 yds / Att), and only sacrificing a little accuracy (-1.4 pts); but he is also turning it over more (+1.2 pts INT rate) when compared to player B.
Who would you rather have? I think Player A is more exciting... player B is more consistent. Hard to say who wins you more games but I think CMC would rather have player B.
Who are they?
Player A is Freshman Purdy, Overall PFF Grade 89.3 (highest of his career)
Player B is Senior Purdy, Overall PFF Grade 79.3
I think a lot of the criticism of Purdy is actually more about:
1) the players he was throwing to,
2) the play calling, and
3) what they asked him to do
In 2018 (Purdy's FR season), Hakeem Butler had 104 targets and an average depth of target of 16.5 yds. In 2021 (Purdy's SR season), Hutchinson had 104 targets with an average depth of 7.8 yds. Also, TE combined for 31 targets in 2018 vs. 126 in 2021.
So, it is clear a lot of this is who ISU had to throw to in 2018 v. 2021. It's not clear who he could have thrown it up to after the play broke down in 2021 the way he did with Butler in 2018... not with the same level of success.
I also believe the staff wanted a more controlled offense that operated within their designed scheme. Purdy did his best to accommodate that and in terms of being NFL ready, this was probably best for him too. But I think he played his best when he was running around playing "backyard" style football, pump faking and scrambling... but just my opinion.
Accuracy% (looks only at passes where QB was not hit as he was throwing, spiking the ball, throwing it away, or drops by WRs to better evaluate the QB's accuracy vs. completion percentage which is impacted by these issues)
Player A: 77.3%
Player B: 78.7%
Avg QB*: 70.9%
Big Time Throw % (a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value. While the value is easy to see statistically, the difficulty has more to do with passes that have a lower completion percentage)
Player A: 8.3%
Player B: 2.6%
Avg QB*: 4.6%
Interception % (percent of attempts intercepted)
Player A: 3.2%
Player B: 2.0%
Avg QB*: 2.4%
Avg Depth of Target (how far is the pass going down field)
Player A: 11.8
Player B: 7.5
Avg QB*: 9.6
*Avg QB is the Avg QB from 2021 with at least 100 Attempts
I think player A is making bigger plays (+5.7 pts Big Time Throw rate), targeting players further down field (+4.3 yds / Att), and only sacrificing a little accuracy (-1.4 pts); but he is also turning it over more (+1.2 pts INT rate) when compared to player B.
Who would you rather have? I think Player A is more exciting... player B is more consistent. Hard to say who wins you more games but I think CMC would rather have player B.
Who are they?
Player A is Freshman Purdy, Overall PFF Grade 89.3 (highest of his career)
Player B is Senior Purdy, Overall PFF Grade 79.3
I think a lot of the criticism of Purdy is actually more about:
1) the players he was throwing to,
2) the play calling, and
3) what they asked him to do
In 2018 (Purdy's FR season), Hakeem Butler had 104 targets and an average depth of target of 16.5 yds. In 2021 (Purdy's SR season), Hutchinson had 104 targets with an average depth of 7.8 yds. Also, TE combined for 31 targets in 2018 vs. 126 in 2021.
So, it is clear a lot of this is who ISU had to throw to in 2018 v. 2021. It's not clear who he could have thrown it up to after the play broke down in 2021 the way he did with Butler in 2018... not with the same level of success.
I also believe the staff wanted a more controlled offense that operated within their designed scheme. Purdy did his best to accommodate that and in terms of being NFL ready, this was probably best for him too. But I think he played his best when he was running around playing "backyard" style football, pump faking and scrambling... but just my opinion.
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I was ready last season for Dekkers. Brock was a good QB but he didn't get much more dynamic after his first two years. Great leader and person but I think our ceiling is higher with Hunter.
With limits on contact hours, you have to have a base philosophy that everything else stems from. So you have a base set of plays and then tweak them based on the opponent. You can't just install whole new sets from week to week. There isn't enough time to practice it and get the necessary level of mastery between games.
Maybe you change who you read on a particular RPO. Or switch who blocks the DE/LB on a power. But you don't go from a ball control run first offense to a heavy passing team in a week's time.
Do you have this stat somewhere? Do you also have it for other QBs so we can view his numbers in proper context?
I saw a study of NFL QBs from a couple years ago that found from a win probability standpoint there is an optimal INT rate. If your rate is too high, your team can't overcome it (duh). But if the rate is too low, it means you aren't taking enough chances. Those passes that occasionally get picked can also occasionally turn into game-changing plays for the offense that increase your win probability. As I recall, that optimal rate was around 2.5%.
Interesting way to look at it... I think it's probably better to use a combination of explosive plays, average depth of target, and turn over worthy plays and also INT rate - probably other stats too. Understand the idea... but the reality is, if you can make big plays without turning it over that is good too. Maybe it is luck (dropped INT's etc) maybe it is skill... I guess my point is, INT % may not be the best way to gauge how aggressive a QB / Offense is. If you are by far the most aggressive offense in the league, maybe it's ok if you are not turning it over.. understand there is an element of "if you aren't getting penalized, you need to take more risk". But again, just think there may be better ways to evaluate how aggressive the offense is being.
This statement didn't hold up well. Weak arm? Did you watch his NFL debut? The announcers were saying what a strong arm he had and talked about his arm talent. I just don't get the Purdy bashing on this forum.
Let's see, am I going to believe a random noob on the internet, or some guys who have seen more pro QBs in person in a week than Joe Schmo has in his life. Hmmm, tough choice.
That's it, act confused when you're losing an argument. LOL
