Way too early starting lineup talk for the 23-24 season

[TheDudeAbides]

I like our depth a lot. One think I noticed in NCAA Tournament was a trend among elite teams to not play their studs huge minutes (35+). And in some cases really good guards/wings were playing around 28 minutes. Not sure if this is an extension of minute management we see in the NBA. Instead of having players sit out games, just reduce minutes to maximize guys energy levels in Feb/Mar.

IMO TJ is going to go with the following starting lineup in November:

Williams
Gilbert
Curtis Jones
Biliew
King

I could definitely see Rob Jones starting over Biliew in November, but my guess is TJ made promises to Bilew that he would be given every opportunity to start. I would not surprise me if our 5 guards (starters plus Lipsey & Paveletzke) all average around 25mpg. If a guy is playing well in a game he will get closer to 30 minutes and if not making his shots 20 minutes.

For me the 3 wildcards are Watson, Momcilovic and Ward.

• Watson needs to work hard on his shooting this off-season and develop his 3 from the wings and key area. He was basically a corner 3 jump shooter last season. If he develops, he could be a 20mpg guy. If he doesn't less than 10 mpg.
• Momcilovic. Is his body strength Big12 ready and can he be a 6-8 rpg guy? If yes then he will play 25mpg. If not, I could see him only playing 10-15mpg as a stretch 4.
• Ward might be the biggest unknown. If he has the same offensive skills and team defense awareness as this past season, he will barely hit the floor. If he makes nice strides over the summer, I could see him start and maybe TJ plays bigger with Biliew splitting minutes at 3/4 and King splitting minutes at 4/5. Then there would be a crunch for minutes among the guards.

I know its not a popular idea, but could we see Hamilton and Fish redshirt? Unless they are much better than expected, just don't see more than 5mpg and if that expectation is created up front during fall camp, it might be easier for the players to accept and keep a positive outlook.

You typed up a lot here, but this part ruined it all for me ha.

I'm sorry, but zero chance a guy in RJ (who is better suited on a mid-major team) starts over a McD's AA. Omaha's physicality and versatility is exactly what TJ covets in a player. His play will likely be the biggest determining factor on how the team performs next year. Hopefully he excels early and often!

 

[bawbie]

We’ll just have to wait and see! I think with shooters and playmakers around Tamin he’s going to be so much more effective. He’ll take a step forward in his shooting but it won’t be 36% from 3. I also don’t think Williams will be at that either. I’d say both will be around 31-33%. I really don’t think if Williams shoots it at a little higher percentage that he’ll get the nod.

Lipsey was arguably a top 5 defensive guard and probably the best rebounding PG in the league.

For both Lipsey and Williams, volume will be as important as percentage. if they shoot 30% on 0.5 attempts per game, that's not very useful. They need to take 2-3 a game and be able to make a respectable percentage.

 

[MJ271]

To say those records were because of him, is going a little far. There was a lack of options, and he was the body that was in there at times. Sure he plays hard on the defensive end, but our offense severely struggled when he was on the floor - specifically against better competition.

With the depth, and talent on the roster next year, those kind of minutes out of him simply won't be needed. And if they are - there were probably some injuries, unending foul trouble, or guys didn't live up to their hype(unlikely). Which is where the "BIG trouble" comes from.

I never said the records were because of him; that's why I said it was correlation and not causation. But to me, your comment implied that a team that has Robert Jones playing 20 minutes couldn't be successful (what else would "BIG trouble" mean?). That clearly isn't the case because they were perfectly fine when it happened this past season. Maybe they'll have the talent and depth that he won't have to play 20 minutes. But if he does, I don't think the evidence is there to say they're in "BIG trouble."

 

[cyclonehomer]

I like our depth a lot. One think I noticed in NCAA Tournament was a trend among elite teams to not play their studs huge minutes (35+). And in some cases really good guards/wings were playing around 28 minutes. Not sure if this is an extension of minute management we see in the NBA. Instead of having players sit out games, just reduce minutes to maximize guys energy levels in Feb/Mar.

IMO TJ is going to go with the following starting lineup in November:

Williams
Gilbert
Curtis Jones
Biliew
King

I could definitely see Rob Jones starting over Biliew in November, but my guess is TJ made promises to Bilew that he would be given every opportunity to start. I would not surprise me if our 5 guards (starters plus Lipsey & Paveletzke) all average around 25mpg. If a guy is playing well in a game he will get closer to 30 minutes and if not making his shots 20 minutes.

For me the 3 wildcards are Watson, Momcilovic and Ward.

• Watson needs to work hard on his shooting this off-season and develop his 3 from the wings and key area. He was basically a corner 3 jump shooter last season. If he develops, he could be a 20mpg guy. If he doesn't less than 10 mpg.
• Momcilovic. Is his body strength Big12 ready and can he be a 6-8 rpg guy? If yes then he will play 25mpg. If not, I could see him only playing 10-15mpg as a stretch 4.
• Ward might be the biggest unknown. If he has the same offensive skills and team defense awareness as this past season, he will barely hit the floor. If he makes nice strides over the summer, I could see him start and maybe TJ plays bigger with Biliew splitting minutes at 3/4 and King splitting minutes at 4/5. Then there would be a crunch for minutes among the guards.

I know its not a popular idea, but could we see Hamilton and Fish redshirt? Unless they are much better than expected, just don't see more than 5mpg and if that expectation is created up front during fall camp, it might be easier for the players to accept and keep a positive outlook.

I'd be shocked if Milan is playing only 10-15 minutes a game.

He's being pretty underrated and is likely closer to the starting lineup than he is to being a marginal rotation piece.

 

[cyfan92]

BRE should only be a reserve player..

@JStanz51 you mentioned on your latest pod that BRE is an elite backup Center in the conference. I would have ranked the 2022/23 backup centers like this.. Where would you rank him in this list?

Christian Bishop
Tyreek Smith
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua
Daniel Batcho
Sam Godwin
BRE
Jimmy Bell Jr.
Ernest Udeh Jr.
Abayomi Iyiola
Xavier Cork

What are we missing as you played big man at the college level.

 

[bawbie]

BRE should only be a reserve player..

@JStanz51 you mentioned on your latest pod that BRE is an elite backup Center in the conference. I would have ranked the 2022/23 backup centers like this.. Where would you rank him in this list?

Christian Bishop
Tyreek Smith
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua
Daniel Batcho
Sam Godwin
BRE
Jimmy Bell Jr.
Ernest Udeh Jr.
Abayomi Iyiola
Xavier Cork

What are we missing as you played big man at the college level.

No real issue with that list - except I watched every game last year and I have no idea who Sam Godwin plays for. I don't recognize that name at all

 

[TheDudeAbides]

I never said the records were because of him; that's why I said it was correlation and not causation. But to me, your comment implied that a team that has Robert Jones playing 20 minutes couldn't be successful (what else would "BIG trouble" mean?). That clearly isn't the case because they were perfectly fine when it happened this past season. Maybe they'll have the talent and depth that he won't have to play 20 minutes. But if he does, I don't think the evidence is there to say they're in "BIG trouble."

"Perfectly fine" is certainly not the first thing that comes to my mind when watching that offense at times last year. Specifically the record setting poor performance they displayed in the NCAA tourney...One could say they were in "BIG trouble" that game.

Don't want to keep dumping on him, but to hammer the point home - the offense was extremely handcuffed when he was out there, can't make FT's, and constantly fouled on defense. Don't feel like this is some mind blowing discovery.

Point is Rob is a spot minute guy, and hopefully he lands closer to the 10/game range next season. I think that'll be the case. Excited to see the new pieces fall into place, and produce a much more fluid team offensively & defensively. TJ has this ship heading in the right direction.

 

[cyfan92]

No real issue with that list - except I watched every game last year and I have no idea who Sam Godwin plays for. I don't recognize that name at all

Sam Godwin 2024-25 Stats per Game - NCAAM - ESPN

The 2024-25 NCAAM season stats per game for Sam Godwin of the Oklahoma Sooners on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Godwin through Udeh is really close.. Udeh being at KU, with their history at Center means he'll likely look like an All-Big 12 center in 2023-24

 

[MJ271]

"Perfectly fine" is certainly not the first thing that comes to my mind when watching that offense at times last year. Specifically the record setting poor performance they displayed in the NCAA tourney...One could say they were in "BIG trouble" that game.

Don't want to keep dumping on him, but to hammer the point home - the offense was extremely handcuffed when he was out there, can't make FT's, and constantly fouled on defense. Don't feel like this is some mind blowing discovery.

Point is Rob is a spot minute guy, and hopefully he lands closer to the 10/game range next season. I think that'll be the case. Excited to see the new pieces fall into place, and produce a much more fluid team offensively & defensively. TJ has this ship heading in the right direction.

I find it hard to blame Jones for the Pitt game when they went 2/21 from three, despite many of those attempts being wide-open. (He did go 0/5, but that was with the paint packed with defenders.)

You might be surprised to find out that the offense was actually better with him on the court than with him off the court. Stats are from cbbanalytics.com (log-in required, but you can select one team to see for free).


When it comes to Jones, I think the question should be, "Why is he playing so much if his individual stats are so bad and his eye test is so bad?" The more I dig into it, the more I think it's because of team numbers like these. I have yet to see any evidence that the team was worse when he was playing than when he wasn't playing, and some evidence that they were better when he was playing. It's not crazy to me that he fits in the system such that his impact comes through in the little things that a box score typically doesn't capture.

 

[CyLyte2]

I find it hard to blame Jones for the Pitt game when they went 2/21 from three, despite many of those attempts being wide-open. (He did go 0/5, but that was with the paint packed with defenders.)

You might be surprised to find out that the offense was actually better with him on the court than with him off the court. Stats are from cbbanalytics.com (log-in required, but you can select one team to see for free).
View attachment 112266

When it comes to Jones, I think the question should be, "Why is he playing so much if his individual stats are so bad and his eye test is so bad?" The more I dig into it, the more I think it's because of team numbers like these. I have yet to see any evidence that the team was worse when he was playing than when he wasn't playing, and some evidence that they were better when he was playing. It's not crazy to me that he fits in the system such that his impact comes through in the little things that a box score typically doesn't capture.

By the end of the season I would much rather see Bob out there instead of Osun. You knew you were at least going to get effort and he was much better at switching at the top of the key.

 

[isucy86]

BRE should only be a reserve player..

@JStanz51 you mentioned on your latest pod that BRE is an elite backup Center in the conference. I would have ranked the 2022/23 backup centers like this.. Where would you rank him in this list?

Christian Bishop
Tyreek Smith
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua
Daniel Batcho
Sam Godwin
BRE
Jimmy Bell Jr.
Ernest Udeh Jr.
Abayomi Iyiola
Xavier Cork

What are we missing as you played big man at the college level.

It all depends on how you define center. In the case of Iowa State, Rob Jones was filling the role of a traditional low post player- a big, physical paint defender who can rebound.

In looking at your list, some of the guys above Rob might be more talented, but they aren't the mold of low post player TJ wanted to play the 5 (Osun/Jones/Ward). TJ was looking for an enforcer to compliment Osun.

A guy like Bishop was a solid post for Texas, but if TJ was looking for an ISU player with that skillset, he would have played Tre King a lot more low post minutes. Based on the roster for next year, I expect Rob Jones to play around 15mpg again, because Ward isn't a banger AND I expect Rob will get better.

 

[RustShack]

Williams would have entered the season as the starting PG last year. There’s no denying that. The question is at what point would Lipsey have taken the starting job during the season.

But it doesn’t really matter now, Williams got hurt and Lipsey played great(other than shooting).

 

[TheDudeAbides]

I find it hard to blame Jones for the Pitt game when they went 2/21 from three, despite many of those attempts being wide-open. (He did go 0/5, but that was with the paint packed with defenders.)

You might be surprised to find out that the offense was actually better with him on the court than with him off the court. Stats are from cbbanalytics.com (log-in required, but you can select one team to see for free).
View attachment 112266

When it comes to Jones, I think the question should be, "Why is he playing so much if his individual stats are so bad and his eye test is so bad?" The more I dig into it, the more I think it's because of team numbers like these. I have yet to see any evidence that the team was worse when he was playing than when he wasn't playing, and some evidence that they were better when he was playing. It's not crazy to me that he fits in the system such that his impact comes through in the little things that a box score typically doesn't capture.

Appreciate the stats as that is interesting. Wouldn't have expected that. Still at some point think it can boil down to the eye test too. Out of control way too often. Plus, a fanbase should only be subjected to so many baby hook attempts launched off the backboard. He's a solid enough back up option against bigger lineups. I still stand strong on my original opinion of him only needing around 10 mins/game on next years roster though.

 

[SoleCyclone]

Appreciate the stats as that is interesting. Wouldn't have expected that. Still at some point think it can boil down to the eye test too. Out of control way too often. Plus, a fanbase should only be subjected to so many baby hook attempts launched off the backboard. He's a solid enough back up option against bigger lineups. I still stand strong on my original opinion of him only needing around 10 mins/game on next years roster though.

Agree with this, however for me, I wouldn't mind him out there up to 15-17min. if it's a need to defend a big/crash offensive board. My main issue was the usage of him when he's in. If he gets it in the post, he puts up a shot/try's to. I get 2-3 and see if he can get a few fouls on the opposing big. I feel like my comfort level would be so much higher if he played minutes without the ball in his hands.
Set picks, offensive put backs, dribble drive hand offs to him for wide open dunks.

 

[isucy86]

You typed up a lot here, but this part ruined it all for me ha.

I'm sorry, but zero chance a guy in RJ (who is better suited on a mid-major team) starts over a McD's AA. Omaha's physicality and versatility is exactly what TJ covets in a player. His play will likely be the biggest determining factor on how the team performs next year. Hopefully he excels early and often!

Generally, I agree Biliew is going to start at the 4 and King starts at the 5. Mainly based on ISU signing 3 guards in the portal.

But what if TJ decides to play big? He did his first 2 years at ISU. Last season Osun, Jones and Ward played the 5 almost exclusively. And the prior year the combo of Conditt and Jones played 80% of the low post minutes. Go back and look at his UNLV team, he had a true post. TJ might feel with his trapping halfcourt defense, a rim protector is important.

So it isn't Rob Jones vs. Biliew. Does TJ start Tre King(4) or a portal guard(3) over Biliew in November.

 

[RustShack]

Generally, I agree Biliew is going to start at the 4 and King starts at the 5. Mainly based on ISU signing 3 guards in the portal.

But what if TJ decides to play big? He did his first 2 years at ISU. Last season Osun, Jones and Ward played the 5 almost exclusively. And the prior year the combo of Conditt and Jones played 80% of the low post minutes. Go back and look at his UNLV team, he had a true post. TJ might feel with his trapping halfcourt defense, a rim protector is important.

So it isn't Rob Jones vs. Biliew. Does TJ start Tre King(4) or a portal guard(3) over Biliew in November.

I bet the staff chooses to see them in practice together first, tinker with different lineups, and roll with what works best for the players they have.

 

[VeloClone]

By the time next season starts all of these transfers will have added 10-15 pounds after 7-8 months in our program. So when analyzing these guys currently their weight should have an asterisk. The coaching staff is well aware of their current size and flaws, I’m sure they have a plan in place to get them where they need to be come conference play. Physicality should not be an issue IMO. It’s a process and there is a vision.

Does anyone else find it funny that a guy who goes by @PizzaTheHutt is talking about our players gaining 10-15 pounds by fall?

 

[TheDudeAbides]

Generally, I agree Biliew is going to start at the 4 and King starts at the 5. Mainly based on ISU signing 3 guards in the portal.

But what if TJ decides to play big? He did his first 2 years at ISU. Last season Osun, Jones and Ward played the 5 almost exclusively. And the prior year the combo of Conditt and Jones played 80% of the low post minutes. Go back and look at his UNLV team, he had a true post. TJ might feel with his trapping halfcourt defense, a rim protector is important.

So it isn't Rob Jones vs. Biliew. Does TJ start Tre King(4) or a portal guard(3) over Biliew in November.

I still think that's a no. Biliew has to be in there regardless. Put him at the 4, and figure it out from there. Unfortunately ISU isn't at the level to afford the luxury of having a McD's AA come off the bench.

It seems Tre King can step away from the hoop a bit, but watching last year his game is better suited on the block as an athletic mismatch at the 5.

TJ may have used those traditional bigs simply because his options dictated that. Now he has multiple skilled PF's to utilize. I think you go with your best talent as option 1, regardless of what classic bball lineups 1 through 5 say, then fill in guys as needed off the bench. If that means a starting 5 of 3 guards and 2 PF's then so be it.

 

[SoleCyclone]

From a standpoint of looking at attrition vs who we've added, how can you not be excited talent and skill-set wise for this next year. Not to mention current roster improveing by being in the program for a 2nd/3rd year with the same coaching staff.

Osun < Biliew
Kunc < Momcilovic
Holmes <= C. Jones
(good)Gabe <= Gilbert
Grill < Paveletzke
E. King < Hamilton
open scolly < Fish
empty walkon spot < Kelderman

Obviously, with all due respect to the guys leaving. Definitely an unbelievable overachieving group

 

[Statefan10]

From a standpoint of looking at attrition vs who we've added, how can you not be excited talent and skill-set wise for this next year. Not to mention current roster improveing by being in the program for a 2nd/3rd year with the same coaching staff.

Osun < Biliew
Kunc < Momcilovic
Holmes <= C. Jones
(good)Gabe <= Gilbert
Grill < Paveletzke
E. King < Hamilton
open scolly < Fish
empty walkon spot < Kelderman

Obviously, with all due respect to the guys leaving. Definitely an unbelievable overachieving group

Most talent we've had on the roster since the 2019 team but the deepest roster we've had in I'm not even sure how long. 8/13 scholarship guys have started division 1 basketball. The ones that haven't are the incoming four freshman and then Watson who was just a freshman. We're going to be experienced with also a lot of young talent with lots of potential. Going to be a very fun season and this off season will be awesome to follow!