Here comes the doomsday thread, sorry

[Al_4_State]

They do "share" the money, in a manner of speaking - right now College Football is worth $x billion to TV nets (most of those from ESPN & FOX) - when Super League (or whatever, call it what you want) happens (& it will almost certainly happen), most of $x billions will be spread across two leagues instead of ten (er, nine... RIP P12) - as I said before, the value of B1G & SEC will skyrocket over night, while the value of the rest will plummet - our "share" will decrease dramatically - & you know? most Cyclones fan will still be watching College Football on ESPN & FOX b/c most people that watch football, like to watch football - you can remain on your high horse & swear off watching Super League in principle, but most people just want to watch football, regardless of who is playing

If what you’re saying was true, the minor professional leagues would have all thrived.

 

[Al_4_State]

There are 2 dynamics going on in college sport right now.

One, the student-athletes have the courts giving them more power day-by-day with NIL and immediate transfer eligibility. NIL has quickly evolved into pay-for-play and the richest 30 schools don't care because it benefits them in the short-term. It may not in the long-term if courts keep giving student-athletes more leverage regarding movement and money.

Two, college football playoffs are expanding. The current 4 team model generated around $500M that is distributed to the ten P5 & G5 Conferences. Starting with 2026 season the 12 team playoff is expected to generate between $1.5-$2.0B annually. The incremental money is BIGGER than the recently signed Big10 or SEC TV deals for an entire season. That is what the Big10 and SEC are trying to corner. They want to make sure their teams make up the vast majority of CFP teams. They could increase conference payouts as teams advance in the playoffs. Or maybe Big10/SEC want a payout methodology similar to March Madness where conferences are awarded units based on the # of teams their conference gets into the CFP. So if the Big12 only gets 1 team, it gets 1/12th of the media rights fees. Whereas if the Big10 gets 5 teams, it gets 5/12th of the media rights fees.

So stacking the deck against Big12 and ACC teams, does generate them more money. The key is how do they give fanbases not in the Big10/SEC enough to keep them engaged to watch the CFP?

They’re going to get the lion’s share of the playoff revenue by virtue of having more teams in. Giving the Big 12 and ACC one guaranteed spot each will be enough to keep those fans invested. Which is where we’re at.

The Big 10 and SEC are already on their own tier financially. They get most of the money from the playoffs and the ratings that come from all the other conferences tuning in. Disenfranchising those viewers by shutting them out of the party completely will lead to smaller TV contracts.

 

[Al_4_State]

Do you honestly think big 12/mwc/acc fans boycotting a new league would put a dent in those great ratings?

100%. They’ll still get good ratings, but they won’t get the ratings they have now and they damn sure won’t grow the product.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Do you honestly think big 12/mwc/acc fans boycotting a new league would put a dent in those great ratings?

It’s not boycotting. My kids don’t watch because they have no interest.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Dude you are missing my entire point. I’m not talking about wins and losses. I’m talking about the talent gap between the perceived P2 and the rest of the leagues when they can offer more money if revenue sharing becomes a thing (which it will).

You are missing my entire point. One thing that drives ratings is when two teams that have lofty records play each other. You are not going to have that anymore. It will become NFL-Lite with inferior talent to NFL. So if I want to watch something NFL like, I will watch the one with better talent.

And if ratings drop, you can’t offer more revenue sharing if the total pot falls.

 

[HoopsTournament]

About half of the fans here say they will still watch. About half say they won’t. Now let’s extrapolate that.

 

[Cyched]

Another thing to ponder: if the "super league" with paid players takes off trying to be NFL Lite, what's stopping the NFL from adding Saturday games? They showed Black Friday isn't sacred anymore this year, and they know they'll dominate the ratings if they do.

 

[ClubCy]

You are missing my entire point. One thing that drives ratings is when two teams that have lofty records play each other. You are not going to have that anymore. It will become NFL-Lite with inferior talent to NFL. So if I want to watch something NFL like, I will watch the one with better talent.

And if ratings drop, you can’t offer more revenue sharing if the total pot falls.

So you think there will be parity and majority of the teams will be 7-5 6-6 and that will drive ratings down? Just so I understand.

Ohio state got nearly 5 million views for games against Maryland and Indiana. That ain’t about the matchup.

 

[HoopsTournament]

So you think there will be parity and majority of the teams will be 7-5 6-6 and that will drive ratings down? Just so I understand.

Ohio state got nearly 5 million views for games against Maryland and Indiana. That ain’t about the matchup.

You are still talking about a world where they haven’t broken off and alienated non-P2 fans. And Ohio State has 2-3 non-SEC/B10 games on their schedule every year to help keep their record higher. Many others do too. That keeps fan interest higher when those teams play.

 

[ISU_Guy]

About half of the fans here say they will still watch. About half say they won’t. Now let’s extrapolate that.

I think it will be more of phase out due to lack of being irrelevant over the next 10 years if this happens. not so much everyone just stops at once.

 

[isucy86]

They’re going to get the lion’s share of the playoff revenue by virtue of having more teams in. Giving the Big 12 and ACC one guaranteed spot each will be enough to keep those fans invested. Which is where we’re at.

The Big 10 and SEC are already on their own tier financially. They get most of the money from the playoffs and the ratings that come from all the other conferences tuning in. Disenfranchising those viewers by shutting them out of the party completely will lead to smaller TV contracts.

The highlighted is false. With the current 4 team and upcoming 12 team structure for 2024 & 2025 seasons the money is evenly split. Getting teams into the playoff isn't a financial windfall for the Conference or its schools. Currently CFP schools gets a small payment (around $4M) to cover expenses.

The current 4 team CFP payout structure is roughly 80% of the media rights money is split evenly among the P5 Conferences. The remaining 20% is split evenly among the 60+ G5 schools. So when the Big12 was only 10 teams, Iowa State was getting more playoff money than Iowa in a 14 team Big10.

Supposedly, for the first 2 years of the new 12 team playoff 80% of the money will be split equally among each Big10, SEC, ACC and Big12 school. The remaining 20% will be split evenly among G5 conference schools.

What happens when the 12 team playoff media rights go out to bid starting with the 2026 season and there is $1B-$1.5B of new CFP money? This is what the Big10/SEC posturing is about. The Big10 & SEC want more than an equal share.

Does that mean a unit based distribution like March Madness? Does it mean a percentage is split evenly among P4 schools and a percentage is set aside for CFP invite and advancement? And where do G5 Conferences fit? Will they still get a 20% split.

 

[isucy86]

Another thing to ponder: if the "super league" with paid players takes off trying to be NFL Lite, what's stopping the NFL from adding Saturday games? They showed Black Friday isn't sacred anymore this year, and they know they'll dominate the ratings if they do.

Its sacred because the same networks that televise the NFL also televise college football. So they would be damaging their college football investment by competing against college football.

The reverse is also true. Colleges could play football on Sunday, that would dilute NFL viewership. Currently no incentive for the TV folks to rock the Sat/Sun alignment for college/pro football.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Its sacred because the same networks that televise the NFL also televise college football. So they would be damaging their college football investment by competing against college football.

The reverse is also true. Colleges could play football on Sunday, that would dilute NFL viewership. Currently no incentive for the TV folks to rock the Sat/Sun alignment for college/pro football.

Right now there is a federal law that prevents the NFL from playing games on Friday and Saturday (but they got around it last year for Black Friday). I could see the NFL challenging that in the future if it wanted to play on Saturday.

CBS and Fox would take an NFL game in a heartbeat over most college games. The top rated regular season college game was Michigan/Ohio State and had 19M viewers. NFL regular season games AVERAGE 17.9M viewers. On Black Friday when they were cannibalizing the audience. The top CFB game was Iowa/Nebraska (on OTA btw) which had 4.3M viewers. The crappy Jets/Dolphins game on the same day only available on Amazon Prime had a “disappointing” 9.61M viewers.

The NFL could kill college football if it desired to (and if the law was repealed).

 

[isucy86]

Right now there is a federal law that prevents the NFL from playing games on Friday and Saturday (but they got around it last year for Black Friday). I could see the NFL challenging that in the future if it wanted to play on Saturday.

CBS and Fox would take an NFL game in a heartbeat over most college games. The top rated regular season college game was Michigan/Ohio State and had 19M viewers. NFL regular season games AVERAGE 17.9M viewers. On Black Friday when they were cannibalizing the audience. The top CFB game was Iowa/Nebraska (on OTA btw) which had 4.3M viewers. The crappy Jets/Dolphins game on the same day only available on Amazon Prime had a “disappointing” 9.61M viewers.

The NFL could kill college football if it desired to (and if the law was repealed).

CBS might. But FOX is in bed with the Big10 and owns the BTN. So I would doubt FOX would want the Saturday College & Sunday NFL dynamic to change.

Also, if the NFL moved some games to Saturday, they would never approach their Sunday viewership because a good share of people that watch NFL are bigger college football fans or big fans of their school and have season tickets.

The other dynamic with all but 2 games on Sunday is it allows an NFL team's fans to camp out on Sunday and watch 3 games. Put NFL games on Saturday, maybe some fans find another activity on Sundays. Dilution isn't good for NFL or CFB.

 

[Jer]

But people die and more people are born. Over time those new people will have less of an attachment.

Also just because ratings are high now means nothing 20 years from now. Baseball was the most popular sport until it wasn’t. America Idol was the most popular show on TV until it wasn’t. And the reason is because they changed. And because the demographics of the people watching changed. And thinking that won’t happen here is naive.

While I understand the assumption that new fans might not have the same level attachment, one could also argue that they never knew “the good ole day” to know any better.

 

[HoopsTournament]

I think it will be more of phase out due to lack of being irrelevant over the next 10 years if this happens. not so much everyone just stops at once.

I agree. It is long term, not short term.

 

[HoopsTournament]

While I understand the assumption that new fans might not have the same level attachment, one could also argue that they never knew “the good ole day” to know any better.

You lost me there.

 

[CycloneErik]

Only thing is, in order to form the supper conference, they need a way out. So they will need to drag enough along to help get them out. Plus, they need some punching bags also

Does the supper conference make sure everyone has a seat at the table?

 

[SolterraCyclone]

CBS might. But FOX is in bed with the Big10 and owns the BTN. So I would doubt FOX would want the Saturday College & Sunday NFL dynamic to change.

Also, if the NFL moved some games to Saturday, they would never approach their Sunday viewership because a good share of people that watch NFL are bigger college football fans or big fans of their school and have season tickets.

The other dynamic with all but 2 games on Sunday is it allows an NFL team's fans to camp out on Sunday and watch 3 games. Put NFL games on Saturday, maybe some fans find another activity on Sundays. Dilution isn't good for NFL or CFB.

I partially agree with your first part. Fox is fine with the status quo. But if the NFL wanted to move to Saturday, I’d bet Fox would want to be involved.

I really disagree with your second paragraph. Most CFB fans are NFL fans. But I’d venture to guess maybe 50% of NFL fans are CFB fans. The ratings show this. CFB isn’t a blip for the 20M people in NYC, but you better be sure the NFL is. Same with the 5M in Boston, and 9M in Chicago, and 5M in San Francisco, and 3M in Denver and 2M in Vegas, etc. Ask most people who live in towns with an NFL team and a popular college team: Minneapolis, Denver, Seattle, all of Wisconsin, Miami, shoot even Dallas and maybe even Houston. The NFL rules those towns.


Sorry Birmingham, Columbus, and Knoxville and Ann Arbor and other popular college areas can’t compete with that.

 

[ZorkClone]

I guess if this happens what do you think it will mean for actual games ISU plays? Will you still go to games?

I suppose if we still have 60,000 showing up to Trice and 14,000 at Hilton then does it really matter if we aren’t in the top football league? The thing I worry about is that it will just kill fan support to even go to the games.