2025 Bracketologies

Cyhig

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Nov 29, 2017
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This has a potential matchup with Drake in the 2nd round? Hmmm...
NCAA loves to have those kinds of matchups. I remember when Kansas/Wichita State played each other in the second round (which WSU won)
 

Chitowncy

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Jan 14, 2009
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Ames
Do they? I think they're usually just coincidence...
They did it last year to us. I think the committee does sometimes want a little of that storyline intrigue in match-ups. Last year if Wazzu would have lost, we would have played Drake in the second round.
 

goody2012

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They did it last year to us. I think the committee does sometimes want a little of that storyline intrigue in match-ups. Last year if Wazzu would have lost, we would have played Drake in the second round.
They try to keep teams close(ish) to home, those type of match-ups are going to happen organically, it doesn't take them gaming the bracket.
 

VeloClone

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Jan 19, 2010
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Brooklyn Park, MN

VeloClone

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Jan 19, 2010
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Brooklyn Park, MN
They did it last year to us. I think the committee does sometimes want a little of that storyline intrigue in match-ups. Last year if Wazzu would have lost, we would have played Drake in the second round.
The committee has such a big job with selecting the 68 teams, ranking them on the S curve and then placing them in the bracket honoring all of the seeding rules that they have very little time or inclination to set up cutesy matchups despite what many talking heads will tell you.
 
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Cyhig

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Do they? I think they're usually just coincidence...
Maybe so. I just seem to recall Kansas and Wichita State were refusing to play each other as a scheduled game back then, and this was a way to force the two teams to play each other

My memory could be off though
 

NiceMarmot

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Oct 25, 2017
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My updated bracket headed into tonight's Tuesday slate of games.

1740520490218.png

ISU and other random notes:
  • Keep rooting against Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M. Wouldn't be bad if St. John's took one more loss either if you want to be a 2-seed.
  • It's going to be more and more difficult to keep same conference teams that are seeded 1 through 4 out of the same region with these mega-conferences, but my guess is the committee will definitely try to do that in the case of 1 and 2-seeds. Because of that, if Houston rises to a 1 and if ISU stays a 2, it'll just increase the chances that ISU is the 2-seed in Auburn or Duke's region. If that's something you don't want to see, root for Houston to drop a game or two down the stretch to ensure they're a 2-seed.
  • Nebraska and Drake hovering around that 10/11 line. There's a possibility either could be placed in ISU's pod if we want some potential juicy local storylines in round 2.
  • I think there's a non-zero chance (maybe 15-30%?) that we get an SEC rematch in Dayton. Would need 3 of the 4 Last 4 In to be from the SEC.
 

dahliaclone

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Mar 4, 2007
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Minneapolis
As we know, Palm is not good at this. But his Big Ten love is laughable in his latest bracket today. He has Iowa State (NET #9, 6 Q1 wins, #11 KenPom) as a 4. But he has Purdue (#16 NET, 8 Q1 wins, #14 KenPom) as a 3 seed after they've lost 4 of 5. He has four Big Ten teams as 2 seeds and 2 3 seeds.

Iowa State a 4 is whatever. We are probably on that 3/4 line. But Texas Tech as a 4 while a team like Purdue is a 3 makes zero sense.

 

CoachHines3

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As we know, Palm is not good at this. But his Big Ten love is laughable in his latest bracket today. He has Iowa State (NET #9, 6 Q1 wins, #11 KenPom) as a 4. But he has Purdue (#16 NET, 8 Q1 wins, #14 KenPom) as a 3 seed after they've lost 4 of 5. He has four Big Ten teams as 2 seeds and 2 3 seeds.

Iowa State a 4 is whatever. We are probably on that 3/4 line. But Texas Tech as a 4 while a team like Purdue is a 3 makes zero sense.

Updated BracketMatrix has us as the last #3. But yeah, Palm is ranked 164th out of 179 brackets on there lol. Lunardi isn’t much better, he’s 118th
 
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NiceMarmot

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Oct 25, 2017
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My bracket and resume comparison link after the weekend's games.

1741038058392.png

Some bracket notes:
  • The top 6 has separated itself at this stage. Would be really surprised if seeding order isn't Auburn, Duke, Houston or SEC 2 for the 3rd 1-seed, the other for the 4th, and then SEC 3/SEC 4 for the top two 2-seeds. SEC 2 through 4 are Tennessee, Alabama, Florida to be clear.
  • Michigan State has kind of separated itself as spot 7 and the 3rd 2-seed to me.
  • After that, St. John's, Wisconsin, Iowa State, and Texas Tech seem to be battling for the final 2-seed. Outside chance of Purdue. So there are your "root against" teams if you're interested.
  • If Houston stays at #3 overall, we likely won't be placed in the Midwest. If they fall to #4, we wouldn't be placed in the West. So be prepared to be placed in Auburn, Duke, or SEC 2's region.
  • After listening to the pod, for @brentblum, enjoy this resource which I use frequently. Bauertology's Tournament Site Distances. Type in any school and see where 1st weekend sites and regional sites rank as far as proximity to each school.
 

SolterraCyclone

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Jul 26, 2021
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My bracket and resume comparison link after the weekend's games.

View attachment 144394

Some bracket notes:
  • The top 6 has separated itself at this stage. Would be really surprised if seeding order isn't Auburn, Duke, Houston or SEC 2 for the 3rd 1-seed, the other for the 4th, and then SEC 3/SEC 4 for the top two 2-seeds. SEC 2 through 4 are Tennessee, Alabama, Florida to be clear.
  • Michigan State has kind of separated itself as spot 7 and the 3rd 2-seed to me.
  • After that, St. John's, Wisconsin, Iowa State, and Texas Tech seem to be battling for the final 2-seed. Outside chance of Purdue. So there are your "root against" teams if you're interested.
  • If Houston stays at #3 overall, we likely won't be placed in the Midwest. If they fall to #4, we wouldn't be placed in the West. So be prepared to be placed in Auburn, Duke, or SEC 2's region.
  • After listening to the pod, for @brentblum, enjoy this resource which I use frequently. Bauertology's Tournament Site Distances. Type in any school and see where 1st weekend sites and regional sites rank as far as proximity to each school.
You think we’re locked in for a Milwaukee first-round site?

Still seems to me the only 3 threats to bump us are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Purdue (Michigan State’s 1st choice destination is Cleveland). So we just need to finish higher on the seed line than 2 of the 3, and I think we are safely ahead of all 3 right now.