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    2023 Big 12 Championship Game Chances

    Hey, y'all. I've done this the past several years, and I'm bringing it back again. My original plan (after seeing ISU's non-conference) was to skip it this year, since I needed to make some revisions to get it to handle the bigger Big 12 (as well as some revisions to handle changes with my data...
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    ISU #6 in Massey Computer Rankings

    Can't say I would put them that high, but an interesting data point.
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    2021 Big 12 Championship Computer Projections

    Hey, y'all. I've done this the past four years, and I'm bringing it back again. Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game. Here are the chances for each team to...
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    2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    Hey, y'all. I've done this the past three years, and we're far enough into the season (and Iowa State's doing well enough!) that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again. Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Projection

    Hey, y'all. I've done this the past two years, and we're far enough into the season that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again. Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for...
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    Big 12 Champion Computer Projection

    As maybe a few of you have seen, I post something akin to this in football every year on CF. This year I decided to adapt my football Python program to work with Big 12 basketball as well. Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 basketball season in Python...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    I did this last year, and we're finally far enough into the season that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again. Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    I’ve done something similar to this the past couple years in basketball, but never before in football because, frankly, it’s less interesting when your team’s on its way to a 3-9 season. Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python...
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    Big 12 Final Standings Computer Projection

    The past couple years around this time, I've run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on the remainder of the Big 12 season, using Massey's rankings/win percentages. I've done it again this year, and here are all the scenarios with at least a 1% chance of happening: Kansas outright: 55% Baylor...
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    Big 12 standings computer projections

    I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on the remainder of the Big 12 season, using Massey's rankings/win percentages. Here are all the scenarios with at least a 1% chance of happening: Kansas outright: 35% West Virginia outright: 26% KU/WV tie: 18% Three-way (or more) tie: 6% KU/OU tie: 5%...
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    Blind reranking of the AP top 10

    I've seen talk here of ISU being ranked too low at no. 5, and I've seen talk of them not being deserving of the top 10. So I decided to quickly put this together. It's the AP top 10 teams, randomized and blinded, with only their wins over top 100 opponents and their losses. Rankings are via one...
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    Bad Sign: Pacific losing to Miami (2 seed)

    Can't say this bodes well for the Big West's chances in the tournament.
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    log5 (sort of) for Spokane Regional

    I'm a big fan of KenPom's log5 odds for the men's NCAA tournament, so I decided to quickly put together a sheet for the women's Spokane Bracket based on Sagarin's Predictor ratings. This isn't technically a log5 — you can see why (and what I'm doing) here — but the results are the same format as...
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    Jared Barnett for Heisman!

    Jared Barnett against KSU: 16-36, 166 yds., 2 TDs, 1 int., 96.0 rating Geno Smith against KSU: 20-31, 144 yds., 0 TDs, 2 int., 89.5 rating
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    A slight bit of optimism, if that's not too inappropriate

    Here's the games so far between the teams we've already played in the Big 12 and the teams we've yet to play. TT over WV TCU over Baylor TCU over Kansas OSU over Kansas KSU over Oklahoma KSU over Kansas KSU over WV (almost certainly) Oklahoma over TT Texas over OSU In short: The teams we've...
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    11-1 Tulsa?

    It's very possible. Their remaining schedule is extremely favorable after beating a good non-BCS team in Fresno State. As long as they keep winning, they'll be favored in every remaining Conference USA game (helped by playing UCF at home). They did have one almost-certain-to-be-a-loss entering...
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