2021 Big 12 Championship Computer Projections

[Dale]

Hey, y'all. I've done this the past four years, and I'm bringing it back again.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Oklahoma: 61.8% (37.9% 1st, 23.9% 2nd)
Texas: 55.5% (30.7% 1st, 24.8% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 26.7% (11.5% 1st, 15.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 24.4% (9.7% 1st, 14.7% 2nd)
Baylor: 18.8% (7.3% 1st, 11.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.2% (1.3% 1st, 3.9% 2nd)
TCU: 3.5% (0.9% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 2.3% (0.4% 1st, 1.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 1.7% (0.3% 1st, 1.4% 2nd)
Kansas: yeah right

(Texas is ranked 9th in Massey right now, which explains their high odds.)

Here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 2% chance of happening:

Oklahoma/Texas: 28.4%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 11.0%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 10.0%
Iowa St./Texas: 8.9%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 8.1%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 7.3%
Baylor/Texas: 5.6%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 2.9%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 2.7%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 2.4%
Texas/Texas Tech: 2.2%

(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 99.3% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)

And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
3-9: 0.1%
4-8: 1.0%
5-7: 5.8%
6-6: 16.7%
7-5: 28.5%
8-4: 28.9%
9-3: 15.5%
10-2: 3.5%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.6%
8-4: 31.1%
9-3: 90.9%
10-2: 100.0%

 

[JUKEBOX]

good stuff

 

[Cyched]

So, if we end up at 7-2 we still have a good shot at the CCG, depending on who we lose to.

Anything worse, and we can forget about it.

 

[Dale]

Update after the games of October 9th. Big traffic jam for the second spot after the obvious frontrunner.

Oklahoma: 72.7% (51.5% 1st, 21.2% 2nd)
Texas: 33.0% (9.7% 1st, 23.3% 2nd)
Baylor: 29.5% (12.4% 1st, 17.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 28.2% (12.3% 1st, 15.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 25.7% (10.9% 1st, 14.8% 2nd)
TCU: 7.4% (2.5% 1st, 4.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 2.0% (0.3% 1st, 1.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 1.3% (0.3% 1st, 1.0% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.0% (0.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Oklahoma/Texas: 21.5%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 16.1%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 15.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 14.2%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 4.7%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.2%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 3.6%
Oklahoma/TCU: 3.3%
Baylor/Texas: 3.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 3.2%
Iowa St./Texas: 3.1%

ISU record chances:
3-9: 0.1%
4-8: 0.9%
5-7: 5.0%
6-6: 15.7%
7-5: 28.0%
8-4: 29.9%
9-3: 16.7%
10-2: 3.8%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.4%
8-4: 24.4%
9-3: 86.7%
10-2: 100.0%

 

[JM4CY]

We should basically be big OU fans as well. If they hand everyone one loss, we are aided. We really can’t afford to lose to Texas or okie st now either.

 

[AppleCornCy]

Root for ISU and against anybody we lose to. Right now we want Baylor to lose as many as possible.

 

[NorthCyd]

So, if we end up at 7-2 we still have a good shot at the CCG, depending on who we lose to.

Anything worse, and we can forget about it.

Unless I'm missing something, we have 30% at 6-3. Obviously not great odds, but not terrible either for 3 conference losses.

 

[ESciGuy]

Unless I'm missing something, we have 30% at 6-3. Obviously not great odds, but not terrible either for 3 conference losses.

24.4% to make the CCG, 30% chance of ending with that record. We need to go 5-2 in our remaining games to end up at 8-4.

 

[NorthCyd]

24.4% to make the CCG, 30% chance of ending with that record. We need to go 5-2 in our remaining games to end up at 8-4.

My bad, I was looking at the numbers posted on October 3rd.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

Texas is losing another game outside of us, they just are

 

[JM4CY]

Texas is losing another game outside of us, they just are

Hopefully to KU

 

[cycfan1]

Update after the games of October 9th. Big traffic jam for the second spot after the obvious frontrunner.

Oklahoma: 72.7% (51.5% 1st, 21.2% 2nd)
Texas: 33.0% (9.7% 1st, 23.3% 2nd)
Baylor: 29.5% (12.4% 1st, 17.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 28.2% (12.3% 1st, 15.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 25.7% (10.9% 1st, 14.8% 2nd)
TCU: 7.4% (2.5% 1st, 4.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 2.0% (0.3% 1st, 1.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 1.3% (0.3% 1st, 1.0% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.0% (0.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Oklahoma/Texas: 21.5%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 16.1%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 15.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 14.2%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 4.7%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.2%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 3.6%
Oklahoma/TCU: 3.3%
Baylor/Texas: 3.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 3.2%
Iowa St./Texas: 3.1%

ISU record chances:
3-9: 0.1%
4-8: 0.9%
5-7: 5.0%
6-6: 15.7%
7-5: 28.0%
8-4: 29.9%
9-3: 16.7%
10-2: 3.8%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.4%
8-4: 24.4%
9-3: 86.7%
10-2: 100.0%

If its a TX/OU Big12 Championship game, i hope the conference doesn't promote it at all... what a slap in the face, marketing disaster.

 

[jsb]

If its a TX/OU Big12 Championship game, i hope the conference doesn't promote it at all... what a slap in the face, marketing disaster.

I keep saying this but I’m not sure why the conference would allow them in that game. Declare them ineligible and pick the next 2 teams.

 

[Cyclonick182]

I keep saying this but I’m not sure why the conference would allow them in that game. Declare them ineligible and pick the next 2 teams.

Honest question......wouldn't that give these ass hats some leverage to leave early without paying their buyout?

 

[jsb]

Honest question......wouldn't that give these ass hats some leverage to leave early without paying their buyout?

maybe. I have no idea how things are written up. But I would hope that the big 12 looked at this option.

 

[cycfan1]

I keep saying this but I’m not sure why the conference would allow them in that game. Declare them ineligible and pick the next 2 teams.

Seems pretty simple to me. Missouri basketball was a massive embarrassment... imagine that on a bigger stage with two teams.

 

[Dale]

Root for ISU and against anybody we lose to. Right now we want Baylor to lose as many as possible.

Yep -- these are the four most important remaining games for Iowa State that Iowa State isn't playing in:

TCU over Baylor: 5.8% (22.9% to 28.7%)
Kansas St. over Baylor: 5.7% (23.0% to 28.7%)
Texas Tech over Baylor: 5.5% (24.3% to 29.8%)
Texas over Baylor: 4.2% (23.6% to 27.8%)

The most important game ISU is involved in: Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 31.3% (12.3% to 43.6%)

 

[CrossCyed]

maybe. I have no idea how things are written up. But I would hope that the big 12 looked at this option.

I would imagine ESPN would have massive, massive issues with that, and rightfully so, considering they are already paying for a championship game where those two schools are expected to be able to participate. It's a nonstarter.

 

[hoosman]

Could B12 cancel the game for some reason? COVID? Or vote to eliminate it for one year?

 

[Cyched]

I keep saying this but I’m not sure why the conference would allow them in that game. Declare them ineligible and pick the next 2 teams.

I hope this happens too. But, the sad reality is that a CCG with those two will bring in the most money.

Maybe they both have to forfeit some of the revenue from that game? (I have no idea how that works)