2021 Big 12 Championship Computer Projections

[mred]

If all three teams' other loss was to OU, then it comes down to scoring margin

For anyone looking at how the scoring margin tiebreaker might work out, just keep in mind that it doesn't work how you think it might. Once the total margin in games involving the tied teams is calculated, the team with the worst margin is dropped, and then the tiebreaker is restarted among the remaining teams.

So if there's a tie among ISU, OSU, and Baylor that goes to scoring margin, the only way we win is if Baylor has the worst margin of the three. It didn't matter whether we have a better margin than OSU.

The good news is, since the games among those three teams are already done, we can confirm that Baylor does have the worst margin. +2 over ISU, -10 vs OSU, -8 total. We are +1 total and OSU is +7 total. Therefore, ISU wins the three way tiebreaker if all three teams win out except to OU.

 

[every_yard]

For anyone looking at how the scoring margin tiebreaker might work out, just keep in mind that it doesn't work how you think it might. Once the total margin in games involving the tied teams is calculated, the team with the worst margin is dropped, and then the tiebreaker is restarted among the remaining teams.

So if there's a tie among ISU, OSU, and Baylor that goes to scoring margin, the only way we win is if Baylor has the worst margin of the three. It didn't matter whether we have a better margin than OSU.

The good news is, since the games among those three teams are already done, we can confirm that Baylor does have the worst margin. +2 over ISU, -10 vs OSU, -8 total. We are +1 total and OSU is +7 total. Therefore, ISU wins the three way tiebreaker if all three teams win out except to OU.

Thanks for doing this. I was just going to look at scoring margins in the games with these teams since I knew it's already set.

 

[Die4Cy]

If the football gods are real, OSU-ISU will be the matchup in Dallas and it will be an epic good time. If we each beat OU, it looks pretty likely.

 

[Dale]

If the football gods are real, OSU-ISU will be the matchup in Dallas and it will be an epic good time. If we each beat OU, it looks pretty likely.

If we spot ISU and OSU victories over OU:

Oklahoma St.: 72.6% (34.4% 1st, 38.2% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 68.0% (47.6% 1st, 20.4% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 26.5% (5.6% 1st, 20.9% 2nd)
Baylor: 24.2% (10.2% 1st, 14.0% 2nd)

 

[cyclones500]

A "consolation advantage" of starting slow in conference, if we can continue to pick up steam, is the upward progression of these weekly updates.

 

[Dale]

Only four teams left with more than a 1 percent chance:

Oklahoma: 79.9% (54.9% 1st, 25.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 57.2% (24.2% 1st, 33.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 43.4% (16.8% 1st, 26.6% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 17.7% (4.2% 1st, 13.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.9% (0.0% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.5% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Texas: 0.4% (0.0% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)

Most likely championship games:

Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 41.2%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 27.1%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 12.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 9.9%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 3.8%

 

[Dale]

ISU record chances:
5-7: 1.6%
6-6: 12.8%
7-5: 34.9%
8-4: 37.7%
9-3: 13.1%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.2%
8-4: 15.6%
9-3: 89.5%

 

[cyclones500]

Thanks as always for these updates, @Dale.

Last week's update was more fun to view.

 

[cyinne]

@Dale could you do a scenario where we win the rest of our games because that is the only way we will make the championship game. Thanks.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

@Dale could you do a scenario where we win the rest of our games because that is the only way we will make the championship game. Thanks.

He literally has it in the post. We win out and we have an 89.5% chance to make it.

 

[cyinne]

Yeah…. whoops….

 

[cyclonedave25]

He literally has it in the post. We win out and we have an 89.5% chance to make it.

Im guessing if we win out, the scenario where we wouldn’t make it would be:
OU winning out, minus ISU.
Baylor winning out, minus OU.
OSU losing 2 more games.
That would mean OU makes it with 1 loss. Baylor and ISU tie with 2 losses. And they own the head to head tie breaker.

 

[Dale]

This week's games and how they affect ISU's championship game odds:

• Iowa St. over Texas: 23.3% (3.9% to 27.2%)
• TCU over Baylor: 6.1% (15.3% to 21.4%)
• West Virginia over Oklahoma St.: 5.1% (15.7% to 20.8%)
• Kansas St. over Kansas: 0.1% (17.5% to 17.6%)

Four most important games left for ISU not involving ISU -- see if you can tease out the theme:

• Kansas St. over Baylor: 7.7% (14.2% to 21.9%)
• Texas Tech over Baylor: 6.9% (15.9% to 22.8%)
• TCU over Baylor: 6.1% (15.3% to 21.4%)
• Oklahoma over Baylor: 5.8% (14.5% to 20.3%)

ISU's remaining games ranked on importance:

• Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 33.6% (4.0% to 37.6%)
• Iowa St. over Texas: 23.3% (3.9% to 27.2%)
• Iowa St. over Texas Tech: 18.9% (4.1% to 23.0%)
• Iowa St. over TCU: 18.1% (4.0% to 22.1%)

 

[jctisu]

Calling it now, TCU beats Baylor.

 

[Dale]

Im guessing if we win out, the scenario where we wouldn’t make it would be:
OU winning out, minus ISU.
Baylor winning out, minus OU.
OSU losing 2 more games.
That would mean OU makes it with 1 loss. Baylor and ISU tie with 2 losses. And they own the head to head tie breaker.

That's one of the two big scenarios. The other is:

• ISU wins out.
• OSU wins out.
• Baylor either wins out or loses one game not against OU.

Then either (a) OSU and Baylor tie for first place at 8-1, leaving ISU in third, or (b) OSU is in first at 8-1 and ISU and Baylor are tied for second at 7-2, with Baylor winning the tiebreaker. OU's out at 6-3.

 

[Rogue52]

Calling it now, TCU beats Baylor.

I tend to agree.

 

[CysRage]

Only four teams left with more than a 1 percent chance:

Oklahoma: 79.9% (54.9% 1st, 25.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 57.2% (24.2% 1st, 33.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 43.4% (16.8% 1st, 26.6% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 17.7% (4.2% 1st, 13.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.9% (0.0% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.5% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Texas: 0.4% (0.0% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)

Most likely championship games:

Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 41.2%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 27.1%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 12.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 9.9%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 3.8%

Thanks for posting this. Obviously losing to WVU hurt our chances but if we were to lose one of our last 2 games, it was much better to lose to WVU than OSU. ISU still owns a tiebreaker over OSU which is huge if we can run the table. @OU will be the most difficult but we nearly won there in 2019 and did win in 2017 so anything can happen. There is no room for another loss but there is still a road to make the championship.

 

[cyclonedave25]

Thanks for posting this. Obviously losing to WVU hurt our chances but if we were to lose one of our last 2 games, it was much better to lose to WVU than OSU. ISU still owns a tiebreaker over OSU which is huge if we can run the table. @OU will be the most difficult but we nearly won there in 2019 and did win in 2017 so anything can happen. There is no room for another loss but there is still road to make the championship.

Thats a good point. Concerning tie breakers, its better to lose to bad teams than good teams. It may look worse from the outside, but when you aren’t in playoff contention anymore, a bad loss is better than losing to a 2nd-3rd place team.

 

[Dale]

Most likely scenario where Iowa State makes the championship game at 6-3:

• Iowa State beats OU and Texas, but loses to one of TCU or Tech. (Or alternatively, Texas can be the loss, as long as Texas loses at least once more.)
• OU wins out (other than ISU).
• OSU loses once more (along with the OU loss).
• Baylor loses once more (along with the OU loss).

Then OU wins the conference at 8-1, and Baylor/OSU/ISU are tied for second at 6-3. They are all 1-1 in round-robin, but ISU has the best win (over OU), so they move on to the championship game.

 

[jctisu]

Calling it now, TCU beats Baylor.

I will just pat myself on the back here from last Sunday's call.