Wish we had Maryland's luck in close games. We'd be talking about a three seed now.
Bubble Watch
- Thread starter vcl3
- Start date
I didn't realize Turtles had so many 1-point wins (also have a 1-point loss, so there's a little balance).
Late to the party, but going back to the RPI convo from Friday....I think the true round robin is bad for the Big 12 RPI-wise. In a typical year, when TCU sucks, it hurts ISU playing them twice and hurts ISU's conf opponents ALL playing them twice too. Since RPI factors in your opponent's opponents, TCU would hurt us over and over again. Granted, this year there isn't a "bad" team in the Big 12, but there is still a last place team. And that team's negative influence is greatly magnified in a true round robin where everyone plays everyone twice.
Stick a fork in this thread or rename it to "Seeding discussion"
The bubble watch is over.
The bubble watch is over.
I said last week that if we went 2-0 against TCU and K-State this week we would clinch a bid and the 4th seed in the Big 12 tourney. Im standing by those statements.
You are right. But my comment was more aimed at all4cy or whatever his name is that said
"I suppose (on the outside) I agree with you. But why on the inside do I still feel like we need that 1 win, yet, to be 10-8 at least? 1 day off for tough road game at desperate Tech, Baylor is Baylor, Okie State might be playing the best in the league, and at Virginia. Where does our 1 win come from???"
He goes crazy at a person who predicts/says Iowa State can win the remaining 4 games, but yet doesn't seem to think we can or will win 1 of the 4 remaining games. Both predictions are unrealistic.
Isu metrics are and have been his stuck lately..that loss at TX stings..had we won one of Zags, Cinnci, Baylor we would be in low 30's RPI wise right now and prob a solid 6 seed..but we didn't..
Honesty we could still get a 5 seed right now or end up an 8. We could win last 4 games and get to CC title and that would put our RPI in he 20's..
Honesty we could still get a 5 seed right now or end up an 8. We could win last 4 games and get to CC title and that would put our RPI in he 20's..
I don't see TCU sucking while Dixon is there. It'll be interesting to see who the new big 12 bottom feeder will end up being, my bet is on Kstate. They have to be kicking themselves for not pulling the trigger on Weber and getting Underwood.
I was on the train that said we needed to get to 10-8 to lock in a bid. I thought one or two of the lower bubble teams would get hot and emerge from the pack, and that if we went 9-9, we would be hoping for the First Four. That would only put us at 17 wins, which just didn't seem like enough and usually isn't. I'm taking that back - we are IN now even if we go 0-5 down the stretch. That would probably put us in Dayton, but our resume would still be stronger than a lot of our competition and we don't have any more chances for bad losses. We're pretty much locked in to nothing lower than a 6-seed in KC, and all of the teams that would be options to play in the first round there will have RPIs of better than 60 and in the KenPom top 40.
The bubble is just so bad and no one is separating themselves, to our benefit - in fact, a ton more bubble teams are trying to play themselves out of contention rather than the opposite (see TCU, K-State, Michigan St, Rhode Island, and about half of the ACC). Do I think we're going to finish 0-5? Not a chance. I actually see us getting at least 3 more wins between regular season and B12 Tourney.
I've started keeping my own "bracketology" of sorts this year to try and be better informed. Right now, it looks like we are right on the 7-8 line, and getting 3 more wins down the stretch could very easily put us as a 6. I'm not convinced the committee would put St. Mary's ahead of us if it came down to it, and other teams like Maryland, NW, Dayton, and Xavier have resumes that are pretty weak. If they take some bad losses, we could definitely get up to the 6-line, although a 5-seed is asking a lot.
The bubble is just so bad and no one is separating themselves, to our benefit - in fact, a ton more bubble teams are trying to play themselves out of contention rather than the opposite (see TCU, K-State, Michigan St, Rhode Island, and about half of the ACC). Do I think we're going to finish 0-5? Not a chance. I actually see us getting at least 3 more wins between regular season and B12 Tourney.
I've started keeping my own "bracketology" of sorts this year to try and be better informed. Right now, it looks like we are right on the 7-8 line, and getting 3 more wins down the stretch could very easily put us as a 6. I'm not convinced the committee would put St. Mary's ahead of us if it came down to it, and other teams like Maryland, NW, Dayton, and Xavier have resumes that are pretty weak. If they take some bad losses, we could definitely get up to the 6-line, although a 5-seed is asking a lot.
I copied EXACTLY what you wrote. You said you didn't see where one more win would come from.
I don't think it will be 1 team at the bottom most years, but Kansas State would be my guess next year. Who knows though, thought that this year and wasn't close to true. Maybe it will be Tech? I don't really know their situation other than they have a lot of seniors.
Yeah, but the same thing happens with the good teams. Your theory holds true if the conference overall was poor, but with such strong teams top to bottom the smaller pool of teams and round robin schedule is a benefit to the rpi. The Big XII has consistently had strong RPI's.
Yes, you better read again. It said..."where does that one more win come from???" It had a question mark behind it, dude. 3 question marks to be EXACT. Of the four games, they are all tough. Said I inside felt we needed that 1 win yet in response to the poster who claims we're in at 9-9 regardless. No where did I say we would go 0-4.
I feel like we say this every year about Maryland, why don't they play anybody?
I guess they play in the Big 10, which sucks, and the ACC hates them for leaving. Should be able to schedule the Big East though.
I think we need one more win to assure ourselves a place in March.
A win in Kansas City counts, too.
After that, it is all seeding.
Take care of TTU in Lubbock today, and I think we punched our ticket. Winning in Hilton against Baylor or OSU, one a very good team all year and another one "on the rise" to sweep them for the season, and almost certainly. WVU is hopefully house money by then.
I want nothing more than to see these seniors -- this generation -- to go out with a win at their last game in Hilton, too, so hopefully it will be for seeding by then.
For those of you looking at the Team Rankings projections that I sometimes post -- remember, they are not "chance to make it if selection Sunday were today," they are "project to the end of the season given various metrics of team performance such as KenPom, SRS, Sagarin, and BPI, and, then, at the end of those hypothetical, simulated seasons where the remaining games had played and, given the history of how the committee selects teams, roughly speaking what are the chances?" is more how it works -- prospective, not "if held today."
The CV of an "in" versus an "out" team usually is not too controversial. Yes, there are always going to be some teams on the line and fights for seeding, but not all that many really. They are pretty good and experienced at predicting that come the last Sunday.
The more complicated part is predicting how a team is going to finish a season in terms of wins, losses, and credentials. After their system comes up with 10,000 or something potential ends to the season based on those models, it judges you from there.
A win in Kansas City counts, too.
After that, it is all seeding.
Take care of TTU in Lubbock today, and I think we punched our ticket. Winning in Hilton against Baylor or OSU, one a very good team all year and another one "on the rise" to sweep them for the season, and almost certainly. WVU is hopefully house money by then.
I want nothing more than to see these seniors -- this generation -- to go out with a win at their last game in Hilton, too, so hopefully it will be for seeding by then.
For those of you looking at the Team Rankings projections that I sometimes post -- remember, they are not "chance to make it if selection Sunday were today," they are "project to the end of the season given various metrics of team performance such as KenPom, SRS, Sagarin, and BPI, and, then, at the end of those hypothetical, simulated seasons where the remaining games had played and, given the history of how the committee selects teams, roughly speaking what are the chances?" is more how it works -- prospective, not "if held today."
The CV of an "in" versus an "out" team usually is not too controversial. Yes, there are always going to be some teams on the line and fights for seeding, but not all that many really. They are pretty good and experienced at predicting that come the last Sunday.
The more complicated part is predicting how a team is going to finish a season in terms of wins, losses, and credentials. After their system comes up with 10,000 or something potential ends to the season based on those models, it judges you from there.
Been vocal in saying ISU was in period, but pretty nice to not find out what happens with 8-9 big 12 wins.
