It looks like they did pretty well on this one. I had read earlier that this particular storm was more difficult to forecast for a variety of reasons, but the models were pretty consistent between runs.
Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter CtownCyclone
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It looks like they did pretty well on this one. I had read earlier that this particular storm was more difficult to forecast for a variety of reasons, but the models were pretty consistent between runs.
The models were very good from what I have seen in the short term (1-2.5) days after that they generally fell apart which is not uncommon.
The very next post he claims he didn't cherry pick, yet that is what he did. That thread has a much better chart showing the improving forecasts for track at least. Now this is a useful graphic. They have roughly cut the error in half, most likely due to increasing computer power and more variables included in the models as well as raw data.
That chart does show that his original claim of 2 miles accuracy was just cherry picking and good luck because the error is 150 miles. I still think that is pretty good and this is the number they should be promoting to the public so that those within a 150 miles know to pay attention.
Yeah, I think this is a case of "better to be lucky than good". There are still a lot of ways storms can veer off course and to think this 2 mile result is a harbinger that some type of corner has been turned is wildly optimistic at best.
Yeah.......that's Mike Sidell. He is notorious for pulling this BS. Wife was commenting on something he did like this last year where he was bracing himself while people 20 feet behind him were jumping up and down trying to get the attention of the camera. He is just one of many lunatics that are employed at TWC. Exactly why one doesn't trust anything/one that clown car rolls out when it comes to the weather.
Also........notice right before they cut to radar how he hesitate's and sort of looks over his left shoulder. Frickin hilarious!!!!!!! Problem is, you have so many out there who suck up this "worse thing ever" BS that channel shovels that it doesn't matter that they know he is faking it.
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I believe that if it re-formed into a tropical system it would not be called Florence again. Kirk is the next name that hasn’t been used.
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Depends on how the NHC views this. Something of a judgement call, usually comes down to if they view this as the primary remanent of Florence. There was a fair amount of debate when it came to reusing Ivan at that time as well.
