His back isn't "injured", just sore. He'll play tomorrow. I didn't mean he would drop in the draft because of it; I meant that he feels he isn't going to be physically READY because of how the last few weeks have gone. He sees that he needs more work in the weight room to be ready to bang in unlimited amounts of practice and 82-100 games a year.
I get what you're saying, but I think you're approaching this the wrong way. If he comes back, it's gunna be because he enjoys college, likes the team, and wants to win a NC. Not because he wants to prove he's durable, improve his draft stock, or develop his game.
Now days NBA drafts on potential, and Embiid has a **** ton. I honestly think NBA teams would rather have him developing his game while on their roster, rather than in college. Even if he isn't playing much that first year.
And honestly, how much is he gunna improve, from a draft stock point of view? From 3-5 this year to #1 next year? Not much difference, and lots has to go his way in order to be that #1 pick next year.