Is this years' team better than we thought?

PizzaTheHutt

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It's a huge game to be sure, but we could lose that one and then win out. Each team is built a little different, and you just never know.
True that. I suppose I just feel like our odds getting to 10 would be that much better winning that one in that scenario vs losing it.

Can’t wait to see what we look like playing Houston tomorrow.
 
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Tre4ISU

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I think under the hood the numbers are a lot more positive for the offensive line.

Game On Paper has a lot of great stats, but they have a couple of run game stats that I think are useful for OL play evaluation. They have "Stuff Rate," which is percentage of runs for zero or fewer yards, and "Offensive Line Yards," which uses a formula that basically gives the offensive line varying levels of credit for various lengths of runs. For example, the OL is given no extra credit once a running back gets beyond 10 yards, because it's assumed that OL helped get them to 10 yards, but probably didn't do much to turn it from a 10 yard run into a 50 yard run. It's not a perfect formula, but it's useful.

So far this season, Iowa State's run game has been stuffed in 11.6% of carries, vs. last season's first three games at 24% (and 25% for all of 2023). For offensive line yards, Iowa State is at 2 OL yards per carry this season, vs. 1.4 for last season's first three games (1.51 for all of 2023).

In terms of percentiles, the offensive stuff rate is in the 78th percentile so far this year vs. 1st percentile for all of last season, while offensive line yards are in the 74th percentile vs. 6th percentile for all of last season.

It seems like there's progress with the offensive line. It's just been that the running backs haven't really been able to turn the 2-4 yard runs into 7-15 yard runs much this season. Though they did a better job with that against Arkansas State.
I was going to look those up when I had some time so thanks. That’s as much improvement as a person could reasonably hope for in a year and confirms their improvement. Those bigger ones will crack or we will continue to see that consistency. My assumption would be we’re seeing a few more safeties sitting back because of the passing threat we pose.
 

Tre4ISU

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I think under the hood the numbers are a lot more positive for the offensive line.

Game On Paper has a lot of great stats, but they have a couple of run game stats that I think are useful for OL play evaluation. They have "Stuff Rate," which is percentage of runs for zero or fewer yards, and "Offensive Line Yards," which uses a formula that basically gives the offensive line varying levels of credit for various lengths of runs. For example, the OL is given no extra credit once a running back gets beyond 10 yards, because it's assumed that OL helped get them to 10 yards, but probably didn't do much to turn it from a 10 yard run into a 50 yard run. It's not a perfect formula, but it's useful.

So far this season, Iowa State's run game has been stuffed in 11.6% of carries, vs. last season's first three games at 24% (and 25% for all of 2023). For offensive line yards, Iowa State is at 2 OL yards per carry this season, vs. 1.4 for last season's first three games (1.51 for all of 2023).

In terms of percentiles, the offensive stuff rate is in the 78th percentile so far this year vs. 1st percentile for all of last season, while offensive line yards are in the 74th percentile vs. 6th percentile for all of last season.

It seems like there's progress with the offensive line. It's just been that the running backs haven't really been able to turn the 2-4 yard runs into 7-15 yard runs much this season. Though they did a better job with that against Arkansas State.
We are also up 80 spots in success rate rushing. I think that used to be any run of 4 yards or more or runs that resulted in a first down or TD when the to-go distance was less than that.

I’d urge people to click that link. The difference in offensive profile is astounding.
 

demoncore1031

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4-0 feels pretty damn good, but there are A LOT of things to fix and fast. So far we haven't played anyone tough. North Dakota is a good FCS team, but they're an FCS team. Iowa is not bad, but not all that good either. Arkansas State and Houston suck big time. We could end up getting spanked by a few teams that have looked much better than us.

Our pass defense has been impressive, allowing just 102.5 yards per game with 1 TD and 7 INTs. Our opponents are completing less than 50% of their passes (!) and are averaging just over 8 yards per completion. Per COMPLETION, not per attempt. Again, we haven't played anyone tough, and the teams we have played all have a terrible passing game, but still... those defensive numbers are insane!

The defense overall is giving up 7.25 points per game, 255.3 total yards per game, and has allowed only 3 TDs. They have 10 takeaways and 9 sacks.

Offense is more concerning. The o-line has been average at best. Take away that long run by Sama and he really hasn't looked good this year. Rocco has struggled with accuracy in every game. Play calling has been less than impressive as well, but that's nothing new.

Special teams has been average. Our punters kinda suck.
 

t-noah

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4-0 feels pretty damn good, but there are A LOT of things to fix and fast. So far we haven't played anyone tough. North Dakota is a good FCS team, but they're an FCS team. Iowa is not bad, but not all that good either. Arkansas State and Houston suck big time. We could end up getting spanked by a few teams that have looked much better than us.

Our pass defense has been impressive, allowing just 102.5 yards per game with 1 TD and 7 INTs. Our opponents are completing less than 50% of their passes (!) and are averaging just over 8 yards per completion. Per COMPLETION, not per attempt. Again, we haven't played anyone tough, and the teams we have played all have a terrible passing game, but still... those defensive numbers are insane!

The defense overall is giving up 7.25 points per game, 255.3 total yards per game, and has allowed only 3 TDs. They have 10 takeaways and 9 sacks.

Offense is more concerning. The o-line has been average at best. Take away that long run by Sama and he really hasn't looked good this year. Rocco has struggled with accuracy in every game. Play calling has been less than impressive as well, but that's nothing new.

Special teams has been average. Our punters kinda suck.
Usually a team like us is never as great as our last very good game. And we probably aren't as bad as our last game, today's game. We had some very good moments, yes, but most of us were expecting a bit more today.

It's going to be a challenge every week, no cake-walks. I hope we can play better, and to our potential, even if us fans make that potential too high. We can still have a special year. First Big 12 game is a win, so here we go.
 
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mjhavlo76

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A win is a win. The whole game was well managed and conservatively done.

Not sure Houston's style of alternating quarterbacks during series was as effective as one would have thought. I would think as a coach you stay with one that has the hot hand. Neither one showed that.

Baylor gave BYU all they could handle. The Bears are definitely a team that is better than what their 2-3 record indicates. Don't think we'll shut them out. Our future schedule is looking favorable... It's easy to look in a crystal ball and look at teams and say we have a legitimate chance, but a lot can happen between now and then.

One game at a time.
 
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I-stateTheTruth

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I don't feel like we have the data to know how good we are. We haven't faced one above-average quarterback yet (the last two weeks, we've faced FOUR below-average QBs). None of these games leading up to Utah is going to be automatic.

I'd feel better if Rocco were throwing the ball more consistently; like others, I wonder if something is up with his shoulder. I think he's seeing the field well and has also used his legs effectively.

It's going to be a fun season although maybe hard on our mental health.
 

cayin

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I'm very concerned about the O-line. They seem stiff or unathletic. Overall their pad level looked high yesterday and they were whiffing on blocks or couldn't sustain blocks.
 

Cyhig

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4-0 feels pretty damn good, but there are A LOT of things to fix and fast. So far we haven't played anyone tough. North Dakota is a good FCS team, but they're an FCS team. Iowa is not bad, but not all that good either. Arkansas State and Houston suck big time. We could end up getting spanked by a few teams that have looked much better than us.

Our pass defense has been impressive, allowing just 102.5 yards per game with 1 TD and 7 INTs. Our opponents are completing less than 50% of their passes (!) and are averaging just over 8 yards per completion. Per COMPLETION, not per attempt. Again, we haven't played anyone tough, and the teams we have played all have a terrible passing game, but still... those defensive numbers are insane!

The defense overall is giving up 7.25 points per game, 255.3 total yards per game, and has allowed only 3 TDs. They have 10 takeaways and 9 sacks.

Offense is more concerning. The o-line has been average at best. Take away that long run by Sama and he really hasn't looked good this year. Rocco has struggled with accuracy in every game. Play calling has been less than impressive as well, but that's nothing new.

Special teams has been average. Our punters kinda suck.
I thought the play calling was very good yesterday; the execution wasn’t there in the first half. Rocco missed some passes he normally makes.

But some previous ISU teams wouldn’t be able to overcome missed opportunities. This team played far from great football and still won a conference road game by 20

I really didn’t take much away from this game other than the team didn’t play great football, yet the team found a way to still win by 20 points. On to Baylor
 

Clonehomer

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I have no idea how good we are. I do know the Big12 is not as good as I thought it was. We are in a position to take advantage of that and get a trip to Dallas if we can find an offense in the first half of games. The defense certainly appears to be CCG level.
 

cydnote

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A lot of season left and it may mean nothing but Chip Patterson (CBS) has us moving up to 16 in the top 25 and the highest rated in the Big 12. What's that say about at-large chances for our conference? Seems everybody in the 12 is standing on thin ice, and we're on the thickest of it right now. Many contenders for the conference have a bad mark already, do we have one to give? Let's keep this thing rolling and hope we clean up some of our weakness's.
 
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mjhavlo76

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I don't feel like we have the data to know how good we are. We haven't faced one above-average quarterback yet (the last two weeks, we've faced FOUR below-average QBs). None of these games leading up to Utah is going to be automatic.

I'd feel better if Rocco were throwing the ball more consistently; like others, I wonder if something is up with his shoulder. I think he's seeing the field well and has also used his legs effectively.

It's going to be a fun season although maybe hard on our mental health.

Agree. There are passes that Rocco throws that are on a rope like Dan Marino.once thrown, and then others that are sailing high like a kite. Our running game at times goes through doldrums too.

On a different note, anyone seen how Noel is doing? Was it just cramps, dehydration???
 

mjhavlo76

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A lot of season left and it may mean nothing but Chip Patterson (CBS) has us moving up to 16 in the top 25 and the highest rated in the Big 12. What's that say about at-large chances for our conference? Seems everybody in the 12 is standing on thin ice, and we're on the thickest of it right now. Many contenders for the conference have a bad mark already, do we have one to give? Let's keep this thing rolling and hope we clean up some of our weakness's.

All facets of the game including defense can be worked upon I think. But we can say we shut the Cougs out!!! Penalties killed both this game, but the Cougs had some massive ones that cost them!
 
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Big_Sill

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Our schedule is looking pretty favorable. No clue yet how good we are.

Houston is terrible.

We’ve played bad in 3 games and won, that won’t continue much longer, even with a pretty blah schedule.
 
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clonedude

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Everyone is excited about being 4-0, and I am too, but I don’t think any of us know how good this team is?

Seriously.. we haven’t beat anyone (and yes that includes Iowa). Have we beaten a QB that even has a pulse yet? North Dakota’s QB was maybe the only one?

I think we definitely have the potential of being good, and even winning the Big 12, but I don’t know how anyone can know at this point? The OL looks very average again IMO, and I’m concerned about Rocco…. I hope he’s healthy.

I do know we have to step our game up though in the next week or two…. things are going to get tougher for sure.
 

madguy30

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I think ISU's pretty good. There's some speed there.

I'll stick with 8-9 wins on the season (had 7-8 figuring a loss to Iowa).
 

mjhavlo76

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Our schedule is looking pretty favorable. No clue yet how good we are.

Houston is terrible.

We’ve played bad in 3 games and won, that won’t continue much longer, even with a pretty blah schedule.

Coach Fritz is certainly acclaimed to be a good coach, but I saw a lot of dysfunction amongst coaches on the sideline.

Houston may be bottom of the barrel bad in our conference. So a shut-out may not really show much in the grand scheme of things. I honestly didn't think they were that bad.