One final scouting-type report on this game. Sorry if this gets too long, it's cathartic.
Nevada only plays 6 guys:
PG: Lindsay Drew (6'4" 180# Soph). Led the Mountain West in assists at around 5/game, doesn't look to score much, but did shoot 43% from 3 this year after shooting 29% as a freshman. Takes care of the ball well (for mortal PGs) at ~2.5a-to. Good rebounding guard at 5/game. Really bad hair. Monte will probably guard him to start.
SG: Marcus Marshall (6'3" 190# RS Sr) Led the Mountain West in scoring at 19.8. Grad transfer from Missouri St, originally from St Paul, MN. Made 113 3s this year, 20 more than Naz, while shooting 38%. Gets to the line a ton too, far more than any ISU player. Monte compared him to Isaiah Taylor from Texas, I think he plays like Devonte Graham from KU. He'll play off the ball for most of the game, then switch with Drew to be the primary ball handler later in the game. Runs pick-and-roll/pop with Oliver late in games. Will take and make the big shots. I'm guessing Naz starts on him, but Naz, Monte, Jackson and NWB will all get their turn. Plays Monte-type minutes, has played all 40 3 of the last 7 games.
SF: DJ Fenner (6'6" 205# Sr) 4th option on offense, but still scores over 14ppg. Was a career 27% 3pt shooter on 250 shots in his first three years, but shot 43% from 3 this year. I was surprised to see he took more 2pt shots than 3pt shots, watching the games he looks like a spot up shooter. Like all 5 positions for Nevada, he can shoot, drive and pass. I'd guess Matt starts on him.
PF: Jordan Caroline (6'7" 235# RS Soph) Son of NFL all-pro DE Simeon Rice, played one year at Southern Illinois before transferring and sitting out last year. Looks a bit smaller on the court than his listed size, he looks like Weiler-Babb sized. But is really scrappy and energetic and makes them go. Doesn't shoot the 3 as often as the other starters, but still makes 1/game and shoots 34%. Gets to the foul line a ton, top 10 in the nation. He shot 58% from the FT line this year, and still made 30+ more than any ISU player took (Marshall made more). Great offensive rebounder, he does most of his damage driving from the top and drawing a foul, or getting an offensive board and drawing a foul. Scores 15ppg and gets 9.2 boards. Has managed to stay out of foul trouble most games while playing 35+ minutes. Burton will get the initial assignment. He's got to be diligent in boxing out not fouling.
C: Cameron Oliver (6'8" 225# Soph) Physical specimen and athletic freak with NBA aspirations. He reminds me of Deonte Burton stretched up 3-4" and 20lbs lighter. Loves the highlight dunk and shooting threes. Doesn't do much in between. Shot 38% from 3 on the season, taking almost 5/game. Good rebounder at 8.7/game, but not as good as Caroline on the offensive glass. Blocks a lot of shots, almost 3/game. Can be prone to foul trouble. Quick and strong, he can jump out of the gym, but isn't going to post you up. Has a crazy weird leg kick on his 3pt shot that I have to imagine draws a foul now and then. Young will match his size, and Bowie his quickness, but I have to imagine against this team we'll go small and put Burton on him at some point, if fouls play a factor.
Bench: John Hall (6'6" 190# Fr) 3.6 pts and 2.6 boards. Shot 38% from 3 but didn't take many. Didn't stand out much on the games I saw. Only sub off the bench, so if Oliver comes out, they get a lot smaller.
Offense: All 5 guys had shoot the 3, handle the ball and drive. When their offense is flowing well, they drive-kick, drive-kick, until they get a lay-up or a wide open 3. When their offense isn't flowing well, they stand around and end up shooting a contested 3 or a mid-range jumper. As I mentioned above, they run some pick-and-roll later in games, but mostly it seems to be iso-drives.
Keys to stopping their offense are:
- Defend without fouling. They live at the FT line, have to keep them off
- Close-out and recover on the 3 point line. Need to chase them off the 3.
- Limit them to one shot. have to rebound the ball well.
Defense: Mostly man-to-man with some half court trap (don't do that against us). They don't seem to be very attentive to the defensive end, can be slow at help-side D and poor closing out or rotating to 3pt shooters (although their opponents didn't shoot very well from 3 on the season). From the games I watched they also tend to give up open 3 looks in transition. Oliver picks his spots to block shots, but when he's out, or pulled away from the basket, drives can get to the rim without contest. They tend to defend without fouling.
Keys to attacking their defense:
- Get the ball into the paint, it will lead to layups and threes
- Pick and roll. Monte does it like no one else in college, they can't defend it.
- Go small and pull Oliver out of the lane.
Overall, while Nevada and ISU are similar teams this year, I think they are most similar to earlier Hoiberg teams, especially the ones where Georges played the '5'. They have very similar offensive philosophies and defensive inefficiencies. Playing all starters 32+ minutes means they have to rest on D and they have to conserve fouls.
We win if we play our game, are locked in, focused and not ice-cold from 3.
They win if we are lax on defensive rotations and they get on fire from 3-pt land.
Prediction: The first half is a game of offsetting runs and a pretty close half-time score. But we go on a big run in the second half and win comfortably 87-74.
