Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[JUKEBOX]

But I could see it play out like this:

* Big 12 takes Arizona, Colorado/Utah
* Pac 12 enters super panic-mode
* B1G adds some combination of Oregon, Washington, Stanford, or Cal at a heavy discount (since at this point they don't really have another option besides joining the B12)
* Big 12 takes leftovers that are available if additive (maybe an Arizona State, Colorado/Utah) at a pretty good discount (because those schools will not have a lot of leverage at this point)

 

[JUKEBOX]

Then eventually ACC blows up and B1G and SEC take heavy hitters and B12 cleans up the scraps. Then we enter the P3 era (P2 + 1 in terms of payouts probably).

I think playoff gets expanded to 12, where each conference gets a certain number of teams in. If Notre Dame stays independent, there's probably a way for them to slide-in to take one of the spots. If they join the B1G, you could probably take 4 teams per-league.

Or it gets expanded to 16, and you have 4 locks for B1G, SEC, and B12. Then 4 at-large spots.

Perhaps BCS bowls get re-purposed as playoff locations. Maybe there are still regular bowl games for teams that don't make it to the playoff.

I'd expect B1G and SEC to win most of these playoffs since they'll have bigger budgets to pay players and coaches, but leaving Cinderella in the playoff doesn't alienate all of those other fans who would probably just stop watching anything outside of their conference.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The SEC would add NC State or Virginia Tech before Louisville.

All your other takes are reasonable.

Yeah, maybe, or it adds a school in a new state like West Virginia, Cincinnati, or even Iowa State. This is all 10+ years away so if one of those programs is very hot by then, it definitely could become an SEC take to be team #20 or #22 or #24.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Perhaps BCS bowls get re-purposed as playoff locations. Maybe there are still regular bowl games for teams that don't make it to the playoff.

I think this is likely. When the playoff goes to 12 or 16 schools, the NY6 bowls will become playoff games, along with other major bowls like the Citrus, Alamo, Holiday.

I think that the bowl postseason for teams that don't make the playoff will start to get even less attention, and will result in even more opt-outs.

 

[madguy30]

I think this is likely. When the playoff goes to 12 or 16 schools, the NY6 bowls will become playoff games, along with other major bowls like the Citrus, Alamo, Holiday.

I think that the bowl postseason for teams that don't make the playoff will start to get even less attention, and will result in even more opt-outs.

The bolded might be about the only way to avoid mass opt outs like the other ones.

Give players some incentive to show out on the big stage in a meaningful game.

 

[20eyes]

Wait, did somebody say the B1G would add FSU? Yeah, that will never happen. Miami absolutely, FSU, nah.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The bolded might be about the only way to avoid mass opt outs like the other ones.

Give players some incentive to show out on the big stage in a meaningful game.

I don't understand what you mean. I think that the "Citrus Bowl" or whatever will be a playoff game, in December, between two playoff teams.

I don't think that there will ever be a problem with opt-outs for teams that make the playoff, whether the playoff games are at bowl sites or on campus.

But there will likely be an increase in player opt-outs for teams that don't make the playoff after the CFP expands, especially when the best bowls outside of the playoff become games like the Outback Bowl or the Liberty Bowl.

 

[madguy30]

I don't understand what you mean. I think that the "Citrus Bowl" or whatever will be a playoff game, in December, between two playoff teams.

I don't think that there will ever be a problem with opt-outs for teams that make the playoff, whether the playoff games are at bowl sites or on campus.

But there will likely be an increase in player opt-outs for teams that don't make the playoff after the CFP expands, especially when the best bowls outside of the playoff become games like the Outback Bowl or the Liberty Bowl.

No, I think you understand, haha.

I'm basically saying what you said (I think). If a team makes the playoffs, I'd think those players are more inclined to stay in the game, and if there's more playoff games (expanded), players stick with it.

After that, yeah, it's practically a wash out with no incentive.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Not exactly sure how reliable of a source Greg Flaguar is but he had a morning thread resulting from the Big10 media days I stumbled on and thought was interesting. Specifically Yormark and Warren look to be partnering and I did notice how complimentary Warren was to our new Comish yesterday. Of course the real driver is ESPN/FOX and the B12 will be the new partner and result in the P3 conference.

https://twitter.com/flugempire/status/1552265355225169920?s=20&t=4XUoA7zbDnhNlXvraoFiUw

https://twitter.com/flugempire/status/1552265789109149707?s=20&t=4XUoA7zbDnhNlXvraoFiUw

https://twitter.com/flugempire/status/1552266339598979073?s=20&t=4XUoA7zbDnhNlXvraoFiUw

 

[Al_4_State]

Warren has proven to be a snake, so I wouldn't get super thrilled about him seeming to buddy up with Yormark. He'll shank us as fast as he shanked the Pac 12.

 

[SCNCY]

Warren has proven to be a snake, so I wouldn't get super thrilled about him seeming to buddy up with Yormark. He'll shank us as fast as he shanked the Pac 12.

Probably wants to gather allies to counter the SEC. Especially for CFP voting and decisions.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If we end up with three superconferences of 20-24 teams each, and a few P5 schools demoted to G5 from the Pac-12 and ACC (Wazzu, Oregon St, BC, Wake), that is bad for college football but still a relatively good outcome for Iowa State. I would sign up for it right now, because some of the alternatives are far worse.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Not exactly sure how reliable of a source Greg Flaguar is but he had a morning thread resulting from the Big10 media days I stumbled on and thought was interesting. Specifically Yormark and Warren look to be partnering and I did notice how complimentary Warren was to our new Comish yesterday. Of course the real driver is ESPN/FOX and the B12 will be the new partner and result in the P3 conference.

https://twitter.com/flugempire/status/1552265355225169920?s=20&t=4XUoA7zbDnhNlXvraoFiUw

https://twitter.com/flugempire/status/1552265789109149707?s=20&t=4XUoA7zbDnhNlXvraoFiUw

https://twitter.com/flugempire/status/1552266339598979073?s=20&t=4XUoA7zbDnhNlXvraoFiUw

Normally I think this guy is full of ****, but I like what he is saying here so now I think he is a really smart guy.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

If we end up with three superconferences of 20-24 teams each, and a few P5 schools demoted to G5 from the Pac-12 and ACC (Wazzu, Oregon St, BC, Wake), that is bad for college football but still a relatively good outcome for Iowa State. I would sign up for it right now, because some of the alternatives are far worse.

I don't see 24 happening without the Big 12 losing teams. I would assume AAU or not if the B1G goes to 24 ISU would have a good shot at that, or even the SEC.

 

[Al_4_State]

Normally I think this guy is full of ****, but I like what he is saying here so now I think he is a really smart guy.

Yeah, I didn't like this guy when he was saying OU and Texas were going to the Big 10, but I'd be pretty pumped about the outcome he's describing.

 

[Al_4_State]

Probably wants to gather allies to counter the SEC. Especially for CFP voting and decisions.

Well, he's in the process of eliminating a potential ally, so...

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I don't see 24 happening without the Big 12 losing teams. I would assume AAU or not if the B1G goes to 24 ISU would have a good shot at that, or even the SEC.

I think one of the B1G or SEC can get to 24. The B1G could add four more Pac-12 schools plus four ACC schools (or three plus Notre Dame). The SEC could add four ACC schools and stop at 20. The Big 12 would be in position to add four Pac-12 corner schools plus potentially four ACC leftovers to also get to 20.

This would be a total of 64 schools; there are 69 P5 programs counting the Big 12 additions. So we are looking at probably 2 demotions from the Pac (WSU, OSU) and three from the ACC (Wake, BC, and one more…) Duke getting demoted would really be evidence of how much football drives the bus. They would get in the Big East immediately though and be fine.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

I think one of the B1G or SEC can get to 24. The B1G could add four more Pac-12 schools plus four ACC schools (or three plus Notre Dame). The SEC could add four SEC schools and stop at 20. The Big 12 would be in position to add four Pac-12 corner schools plus potentially four ACC leftovers to also get to 20.

I do hope it works out that Wazzou and OrST can get in the Big 12, meaning that TV will pay for it. I hate the idea of existing p5 schools getting left out.

 

[BryceC]

I don't see 24 happening without the Big 12 losing teams. I would assume AAU or not if the B1G goes to 24 ISU would have a good shot at that, or even the SEC.

We gotta stop this. No, I disagree heartily.

 

[JUKEBOX]

We gotta stop this. No, I disagree heartily.

Yes I don't think we're joining any other conference anytime soon.

Maybe if the P3 happens (with the B12 consuming parts of the Pac 12 + ACC), and we dominate that league for 20 years and expand our stadium to like 70-90k, we have a shot at the SEC.

But at that point, maybe the B12 can grow enough to have more competitive payouts. Who knows what the environment looks like that far into the future.