Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Gonzo]

You can say that now, but it's funny how schools decide what is best for them in each case. Like I said earlier, the SEC and B10 are not immune to what happened to the B12 and P12. Greed is always there, and the more money that is involved the more greed starts to show up.

This idea that Ohio St would not hurt MSU and EIU because they are "all together in a conference" is laughable at best, the money makers are fine as long as things are going well, but over time they will want more. It's human nature.

Never say never I guess but there's very, very little chance of unequal revenue sharing for full members. B1G has been around for 120+ years, it's going to be the richest conference in college sports, I don't see anyone risking that kind of instability given it's a policy that's already proven to tear conferences apart.

 

[CoKane]

This will be the last step, when the Alabama's and Ohio St. of the world will be telling the weaker conference schools, "we are not funding you any longer, and are out of here."

24 to 32 teams will reform a new league and it will be minor league NFL style of play.

This is when it gets interesting for teams that are decent but not great, like Oky. State, do they want to try and compete week in and week out with the LSU, UT and others schools that have the money and recruiting base to play football at this level.

I don't think it'll be that many teams, which will limit the ability for it to really be minor leagues. How many money teams are left that are not in the SEC or Big 10? Clemson, UNC, Florida State, and UVA are considered locks. Miami, Oregon, and Washington are considered on the bubble. How many money teams exist in the SEC and Big 10? Now move the goalposts from entry to those to entry into this new league. If you take only the most valuable those bubble teams fall off the bubble. The Big 10 its Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC for sure. SEC its Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, and LSU for sure. Clemson, Florida State, and UNC join. For arguements sake throw in Notre Dame too for a clear 12. Michigan State, Wisconsin, Texas A&M can come with for rivalries sake and then add Oregon and Washington to cover more coast to coast. There's your 16 elite teams. Who's the 17th who adds value to that conference? If we're cutting Rutgers and Maryland we're not bringing with anyone else who doesn't add value, that defeats the purpose for those teams to break away and join their own thing in the first place.

My point is that money will win out every single time. If Alabama wants to share money they'll just stay in the SEC. if they get tired of Ole Miss getting money they can call up the rest of the big value teams and go on their own. I dont think theres enough money schools to get the Big 10 and SEC to 24 each now

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Never say never I guess but there's very, very little chance of unequal revenue sharing for full members. B1G has been around for 120+ years, it's going to be the richest conference in college sports, I don't see anyone risking that kind of instability given it's a policy that's already proven to tear conferences apart.

But the schools making the demands do not have anything to risk, only those schools that bring in less money. What is Maryland and Rutgers or even Iowa going to say to Penn. State and Ohio St. when they are told "either give us more money or we are going to leave the conference for this new super league?" The weaker schools in the conference will have no choice but to give into their demands because they are still better off taking less money than if they had to join another conference.

Schools move for the money, does anything really think that Nebraska would have left the B12 and taken less money from the B10? This whole thing is about money and putting your school in the best position to make more money.

Ohio St and other few other schools are fine with sharing the money now, but in the future that could just as easily change, and 120 years of a conference is not going to stop them from doing it.

 

[2speedy1]

Of course you can, it was a once in a lifetime global pandemic that was crushing some of the Midwest states. Every single policy was being made up on the fly and things were constantly being adjusted because again they were making things up as they went.

I thought Iowa fans were the only ones that were clueless on who actually controlled the Big 10, who had all the power, and who where the b!@#hes that were told what to do.

Guess not.

 

[CoKane]

The B1G and SEC are charging toward combining for 44 or more schools post-ACC breakup... maybe 32 of them make the break-away league. Maybe closer to 24, or even 16. And I bet that close to 40 of those fanbases are convinced they'll be in it.

My opinion is is above, but I'll resummerize it. They wont combine, they'll break away from the lucky to be there and the hanger on schools. The top 10-12, take a few rivals with, add a few from the west coast to cover the entire country. The cut line is a lot higher than most of those teams think it is, I do agree there too

 

[BCClone]

Could certainly be possible. ND barely broke 100k viewers on peacock last year. But typically the top drawing or top ranked teams get those slots so it becomes a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy

Does the big ten still share ticket revenue? That was a big deal of theirs just 10 years ago. Assuming with their brotherhood, it still happens.

 

[Gonzo]

I don't think it'll be that many teams, which will limit the ability for it to really be minor leagues. How many money teams are left that are not in the SEC or Big 10? Clemson, UNC, Florida State, and UVA are considered locks. Miami, Oregon, and Washington are considered on the bubble. How many money teams exist in the SEC and Big 10? Now move the goalposts from entry to those to entry into this new league. If you take only the most valuable those bubble teams fall off the bubble. The Big 10 its Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC for sure. SEC its Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, and LSU for sure. Clemson, Florida State, and UNC join. For arguements sake throw in Notre Dame too for a clear 12. Michigan State, Wisconsin, Texas A&M can come with for rivalries sake and then add Oregon and Washington to cover more coast to coast. There's your 16 elite teams. Who's the 17th who adds value to that conference? If we're cutting Rutgers and Maryland we're not bringing with anyone else who doesn't add value, that defeats the purpose for those teams to break away and join their own thing in the first place.

My point is that money will win out every single time. If Alabama wants to share money they'll just stay in the SEC. if they get tired of Ole Miss getting money they can call up the rest of the big value teams and go on their own. I dont think theres enough money schools to get the Big 10 and SEC to 24 each now

The idea that the tOSU's and Bama's and Michigan's and Georgia's are going to bail on their conferences and go off on their own makes zero sense. Unless the plan is to go to a 9-game college football season.

 

[Gonzo]

But the schools making the demands do not have anything to risk, only those schools that bring in less money. What is Maryland and Rutgers or even Iowa going to say to Penn. State and Ohio St. when they are told "either give us more money or we are going to leave the conference for this new super league?" The weaker schools in the conference will have no choice but to give into their demands because they are still better off taking less money than if they had to join another conference.

Schools move for the money, does anything really think that Nebraska would have left the B12 and taken less money from the B10? This whole thing is about money and putting your school in the best position to make more money.

Ohio St and other few other schools are fine with sharing the money now, but in the future that could just as easily change, and 120 years of a conference is not going to stop them from doing it.

Agree to disagree.

New "Super League"? What is that?

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The idea that the tOSU's and Bama's and Michigan's and Georgia's are going to bail on their conferences and go off on their own makes zero sense. Unless the plan is to go to a 9-game college football season.

I don’t think it’s imminent but I think your take is wishful thinking. Every single move in realignment has been about money. The big schools will make more money if they separate and get their own TV deal. I imagine they’ll still play the regular Joes and maybe even give them playoff access to keep their interest. But there is no way you can look at the history of realignment and say that it makes zero sense for Ohio State and Alabama to stop sharing TV money equally with Purdue and Mississippi State.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Their isn’t going to be uneven revenue sharing. That would never pass. I get you lived in an uneven revenue sharing world so it’s much more on the minds of Big12 people but neither the big ten or sec will make that catastrophic mistake.

People seem to forget just how "well" unequal revenue sharing worked in the Big 12 - and it's the schools that insisted it be that way (Texas, A&M, OU, and Nebraska) that are either gone or on their way out.

Besides a really bad TV deal offered by ESPN, one of the things really threatening to collapse the Pac 12 right here and now is Oregon's insistence of implementing an unequal revenue sharing model for any chance at them staying - not that they're going to anyway if that offer from the Big 10 or SEC comes.

And any forced unequal revenue sharing model is going to topple the house of cards faster - especially if the disparity is so great they'd be better off in the Big 12.

 

[CoKane]

Lol the B1G and SEC aren’t breaking off together.

Correct. They'll either try to eat the other one or do the scenerio I dropped a few times in here already

 

[CascadeClone]

The idea that the tOSU's and Bama's and Michigan's and Georgia's are going to bail on their conferences and go off on their own makes zero sense. Unless the plan is to go to a 9-game college football season.

I actually do think this will happen (if ESPN gets its way).

They see 20-24 of the big brand names in a Premier league, with HUGE ratings for every single game. They make their money on the big ratings games, where ad revenue spikes. I suspect they get 80% of their revenue on 20% of games. And they think they can get the 20% of the games and stop paying for the other 80%, by kicking out the Purdue and Miss St types.

Now, will the B1G and SEC push back and not go along with such a thing? Maybe. But sticking together and not going after the money (which leaves you at risk) is kind of unstable. Perhaps they could form some type of Alliance.

 

[Gonzo]

I don’t think it’s imminent but I think your take is wishful thinking. Every single move in realignment has been about money. The big schools will make more money if they separate and get their own TV deal. I imagine they’ll still play the regular Joes and maybe even give them playoff access to keep their interest. But there is no way you can look at the history of realignment and say that it makes zero sense for Ohio State and Alabama to stop sharing TV money equally with Purdue and Mississippi State.

Ah, so they're going to break away from the B1G and SEC, form their own league, all the elites are going to play each other throughout the regular season, maybe mixed in with a few of the have-nots?

 

[Gonzo]

I actually do think this will happen (if ESPN gets its way).

They see 20-24 of the big brand names in a Premier league, with HUGE ratings for every single game. They make their money on the big ratings games, where ad revenue spikes. I suspect they get 80% of their revenue on 20% of games. And they think they can get the 20% of the games and stop paying for the other 80%, by kicking out the Purdue and Miss St types.

Now, will the B1G and SEC push back and not go along with such a thing? Maybe. But sticking together and not going after the money (which leaves you at risk) is kind of unstable. Perhaps they could form some type of Alliance.

So what are those 24 Bama and tOSU level big brand names that are going to comprise the new league?

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Ah, so they're going to break away from the B1G and SEC, form their own league, all the elites are going to play each other throughout the regular season, maybe mixed in with a few of the have-nots?

What would you do if you were president at Michigan or Texas and Fox/ESPN tells you you’ll make another $50 million or whatever if you do this? Especially if you know (or believe) that the league is in motion with or without you?

I think it’s just a matter of time.

 

[CascadeClone]

A conference partner who wants to do unequal revenue sharing is the equivalent of a spouse who wants an open marriage.

Hey it might work and keep things going good. But probably not.

 

[CoKane]

The idea that the tOSU's and Bama's and Michigan's and Georgia's are going to bail on their conferences and go off on their own makes zero sense. Unless the plan is to go to a 9-game college football season.

It wouldn't be that. The money makers bail, offer rivals because rivals=money, then offer teams who cover the rest of the country to go coast to coast and expand the budget. 16 team superultramega conference that may or may not be in the NCAA. The lower money and non competitive schools get dumped like the Big 12 and Pac 12 ones did and the ACC will soon.

If you have all the East, Midwest, and West brands combined into one final super conference that goes coast to coast that's the final form of what's been happening as far as money driving bigger schools to teams up and leave others behind. It's going to keep happening. Someone's gonna realize that if they can boot the entire Big 10 west and replace them with the SEC's teams that even more money can be made as opposed to letting Vanderbilt and Northwestern keep hanging around in the cool kids club taking but not adding money.

 

[Stormin]

Every school isn't Texas. But once Ohio State feels it is at a disadvantage due to revenue inequities with schools outside the Big Ten...Ohio State will get what it asks for to keep that league alive. Why should Northwestern or Purdue get the same dollar amount as Ohio State...unless Ohio State wants it that way?

The other schools have an EQUAL Vote. Tell Ohio State they can leave. They can fight for an at large bid and negotiate their own TV package. And we won’t schedule Ohio State for ANY games.
Good luck ********.

 

[theshadow]

Does the big ten still share ticket revenue? That was a big deal of theirs just 10 years ago. Assuming with their brotherhood, it still happens.

As of a few years ago, the bottom teams were netting around $1.5M each, with the top teams losing around $1M each.

 

[CascadeClone]

So what are those 24 Bama and tOSU level big brand names that are going to comprise the new league?

Best guess?

Bama, LSU, Texas, OU, GA, Fla, TAMU, Auburn, Tenn
OSU, Mich, USC, ND, PSU, UCLA, probably 1 of
Oregon, Clemson, Miami

maybes: FSU, Washington, Arkansas, Ok St, Ole Miss, Mich St, Wisky, Nebby, IA