Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Gonzo]

No that is not what I am saying at all, I am just pointing out how now, many EIU fans are gloating over the fact that other leagues are losing their best teams, and how they think they are safe, because they are currently a member for the B10.

Alabama and LSU do not need the Vanderbilts of the world to play, they believe they will be fine playing other blue bloods each week and willing to take that chance. The schools that should be worried are those like EIU, that offer very little in terms of TV dollars, and think they are fine, just because they are now a member of the league.

Feel free to revisit my past posts from when OuT announced they were leaving. I've never gloated about the Big 12 losing those programs and being threatened. I have one daughter at ISU now and will have another there after next year, they love football and the older one has loved all the big game atmospheres, and I want the same for the younger daughter. There was talk of the number of jobs that the loss of OuT could cause, which nobody wants. All I'm saying is that all this stuff about unequal revenue sharing and the B1G imploding is complete guessing and for some, hoping so that EIU will share in the pain.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

I don't see the B1G or SEC doing anything to tear themselves apart anytime soon, especially with the media revenue they're going to be generating. If that's being naive, so be it.

Ya just like wasn’t going to happen in the PAC 12. Now Oregon and Washington want unequal revenue sharing. That’s phase 1 of breaking away when you feel more valuable than the schools around you.

 

[Gonzo]

No one is saying its going to happen next year or even in five years, the ACC GOR is what is slowing the whole process down. Once those schools are free from their GOR's, then everything will fall into place for this new league to be formed.

The question today is what is going to happen to the Pac 12, are they going to try to patch things up or are other teams like the 4 corner schools going to leave. ND is going to remain independent for now, how long that lasts, no one can say.

For the next 5 to 7 years the SEC and B10 is going to be making money hand over fist, and the ACC, B12, and P12 schools will try to survive. All hell is going to break loose when the ACC contract is up, and those schools are tired of making little money when they could double or triple their income, that is when all hell will break loose.

That's been my point. Nobody knows what's going to happen in 10 years so saying that conferences are going to go to unequal revenue sharing and will lose their bluebloods is just clueless.

 

[2speedy1]

I don't see the B1G or SEC doing anything to tear themselves apart anytime soon, especially with the media revenue they're going to be generating. If that's being naive, so be it.

The media revenue they are generating today will seem like a drop in the bucket in 10-15 years just like the media revenue from 10-15 years ago looks like a drop in the bucket to what is being talked about today.

The thing is you think we are saying Iowa or Mich St wont be in the final group. I never said that. Some have. I never have. I think they may, or may not. depending on how many get in, and how they do from now until that time. If it happened today, I think they both would get in the top 24. But It may be close depending on politics of these things. Neither are slam dunks like the top ten or so.

But you seem to think that the B1G and SEC are just to Big to fail. And if I was you I would not put any sort of substantial wager on that.

 

[2speedy1]

That's been my point. Nobody knows what's going to happen in 10 years so saying that conferences are going to go to unequal revenue sharing and will lose their bluebloods is just clueless.

No it hasnt you have been a broken record saying the same thing over and over, that it wont happen, and telling everyone to explain how etc

and repeat.

 

[Gonzo]

The media revenue they are generating today will seem like a drop in the bucket in 10-15 years just like the media revenue from 10-15 years ago looks like a drop in the bucket to what is being talked about today.

The thing is you think we are saying Iowa or Mich St wont be in the final group. I never said that. Some have. I never have. I think they may, or may not. depending on how many get in, and how they do from now until that time. If it happened today, I think they both would get in the top 24. But It may be close depending on politics of these things. Neither are slam dunks like the top ten or so.

But you seem to think that the B1G and SEC are just to Big to fail. And if I was you I would not put any sort of substantial wager on that.

I fully realize that if the P2 were drafting programs from scratch for a top 24 or maybe even 32, there's a great chance Iowa wouldn't be in.

 

[2speedy1]

I fully realize that if the P2 were drafting programs from scratch for a top 24 or maybe even 32, there's a great chance Iowa wouldn't be in.

But you think its totally ridiculous that such thing could ever be dreamed up.

All we are saying is this is a possible future outcome. Especially the way things have been going. Especially with the greed.

And if you dont think so, you might want to get ready for an extremely hard gut punch.

 

[Frak]

The media revenue they are generating today will seem like a drop in the bucket in 10-15 years just like the media revenue from 10-15 years ago looks like a drop in the bucket to what is being talked about today.

The thing is you think we are saying Iowa or Mich St wont be in the final group. I never said that. Some have. I never have. I think they may, or may not. depending on how many get in, and how they do from now until that time. If it happened today, I think they both would get in the top 24. But It may be close depending on politics of these things. Neither are slam dunks like the top ten or so.

But you seem to think that the B1G and SEC are just to Big to fail. And if I was you I would not put any sort of substantial wager on that.

Yeah, I've seen plenty of iowa fans personally talk to me about how ISU is going to be in a minor league. My response is be careful what you wish for. To think that iowa is immune is naive. I hate the trajectory we're on. I hate that Washington St and Oregon St may be relegated to the MWC. But if we continue on this path, ISU is going to end up in a minor league and iowa is as well.

 

[Gonzo]

But you think its totally ridiculous that such thing could ever be dreamed up.

All we are saying is this is a possible future outcome. Especially the way things have been going. Especially with the greed.

And if you dont think so, you might want to get ready for an extremely hard gut punch.

Nobody knows what might happen in 20 years. I just don't think the B1G or SEC are going to blow themselves up within that timeframe.

 

[JUKEBOX]

That's been my point. Nobody knows what's going to happen in 10 years so saying that conferences are going to go to unequal revenue sharing and will lose their bluebloods is just clueless.

It's speculation, and I don't think anything will happen for 10+ years to the B1G and SEC (besides adding new teams).

However, I think it's foolish to believe that somehow it could never happen to the B1G or that is has some kind of magical bond between the schools that no other conference has.

Once money becomes an issue (either B1G blue-bloods unable to compete financially with other conferences or an opportunity arises to increase payout significantly while maintaining who they deem as valuable opponents) realignment will occur.

Will it happen soon? I don't think so. However, I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't happen eventually.

 

[theshadow]

Article from 2007 about the revenue sharing in Big 12. 1/2 the money divided equally. 1/2 the money divided based on appearances, or unequal distribution. I believe the Big 8 was similar.

The Big 8 was on a "shares" system.

Non-conference games were split 9 ways -- the participating team got 22%, and the other 7 teams got 11%.

Conference games were split 10 ways, with participating teams getting 20% and the other 6 teams getting 10%.

The biggest problem was the frequency that teams were sanctioned, which then effectively limited the TV revenue pool for everyone in the league. If OU and OSU couldn't be on TV -- and the networks weren't replacing them with other Big 8 teams -- then it trickled down and also hurt the bottom lines at ISU and KSU.

 

[clonehome]

I don't see the B1G or SEC doing anything to tear themselves apart anytime soon, especially with the media revenue they're going to be generating. If that's being naive, so be it.

This has been a lengthy debate between Gonzo, Speedy and others, and a good one. But I’m with Gonzo. The blue bloods will never want a schedule where they only play good teams. They are willing to share revenue with teams like Purdue, Maryland, Iowa and Arkansas. Like my buddy who’s a big EPL soccer fan once said, they want to be able to beat the lesser teams but they want them to care. That makes Iowa and Purdue perfect as long term bottom half teams. The Hawks will trade 8-4 every year against a crap schedule for 4-8 or 6-6 against a schedule with 2, 3 or 4 more power teams on it. OU and Texas would not have left for the SEC if the bottom half of the conference wasn’t there. USC wouldn’t have joined the B1G if they weren’t going to get a steady diet of Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska.

 

[RustShack]

This has been a lengthy debate between Gonzo, Speedy and others, and a good one. But I’m with Gonzo. The blue bloods will never want a schedule where they only play good teams. They are willing to share revenue with teams like Purdue, Maryland, Iowa and Arkansas. Like my buddy who’s a big EPL soccer fan once said, they want to be able to beat the lesser teams but they want them to care. That makes Iowa and Purdue perfect as long term bottom half teams. The Hawks will trade 8-4 every year against a crap schedule for 4-8 or 6-6 against a schedule with 2, 3 or 4 more power teams on it. OU and Texas would not have left for the SEC if the bottom half of the conference wasn’t there. USC wouldn’t have joined the B1G if they weren’t going to get a steady diet of Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska.

It’s funny they think all their school presidents would let them breakaway from the rest of the NCAA. If there’s a breakaway from the NCAA, all P5 schools will be apart of it. Or P3 or P2, whatever it is at the time. It’s not going to be just the best 10-30 schools, which changes regularly. There will be a new powerhouse 10(give or take) years from now.

 

[CloneJD]

This has been a lengthy debate between Gonzo, Speedy and others, and a good one. But I’m with Gonzo. The blue bloods will never want a schedule where they only play good teams. They are willing to share revenue with teams like Purdue, Maryland, Iowa and Arkansas. Like my buddy who’s a big EPL soccer fan once said, they want to be able to beat the lesser teams but they want them to care. That makes Iowa and Purdue perfect as long term bottom half teams. The Hawks will trade 8-4 every year against a crap schedule for 4-8 or 6-6 against a schedule with 2, 3 or 4 more power teams on it. OU and Texas would not have left for the SEC if the bottom half of the conference wasn’t there. USC wouldn’t have joined the B1G if they weren’t going to get a steady diet of Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska.

EPL? You may not be aware that the top EPL teams tried to start a Super League just last year.

https://www.espn.com/soccer/blog-ma...ill-a-court-case-revive-the-idea?platform=amp

 

[CascadeClone]

I remember. The SEC played second fiddle to the Big 10 on ABC. One of the reasons they ultimately moved to CBS AND became what they are. Hell, Alabama was sitting in the 3 hole behind #1 Nebraska and #2 Penn State at the time.

Yeah, CBS and Verne Lundquist (?) really WAS SEC football for a long time. This gives me some hope that with the right network partner (CBS, NBC, Amazon??) The big12 could grow its brand and become a serious contender w the P2.

However, i also know that now there are a hell of a lot more entertainment choices - back then it was like 3 choices for CFB on tv and every timeslot was a great one. Now you can find FCS broadcssts if you want, and there are like 20 broadcasters with 20 timeslots many of which suck. So the power of a CBS to raise up a brand/conference is much much much reduced.

 

[JUKEBOX]

This has been a lengthy debate between Gonzo, Speedy and others, and a good one. But I’m with Gonzo. The blue bloods will never want a schedule where they only play good teams. They are willing to share revenue with teams like Purdue, Maryland, Iowa and Arkansas. Like my buddy who’s a big EPL soccer fan once said, they want to be able to beat the lesser teams but they want them to care. That makes Iowa and Purdue perfect as long term bottom half teams. The Hawks will trade 8-4 every year against a crap schedule for 4-8 or 6-6 against a schedule with 2, 3 or 4 more power teams on it. OU and Texas would not have left for the SEC if the bottom half of the conference wasn’t there. USC wouldn’t have joined the B1G if they weren’t going to get a steady diet of Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska.

This won't happen anytime soon, but let's say at some point in the future the SEC signed a TV contract with Apple 4x the payout what the B1G could get, and they wanted to add Ohio State, Michigan, and any other B1G blue-bloods for their CFB offering.

Let's also say in this hypothetical that the BTN network started a massive decline causing revenue drain for the B1G, and they have a sloppy commissioner at the helm.

Do you think the blue-bloods would leave for the SEC or not?

 

[CascadeClone]

EPL? You may not be aware that the top EPL teams tried to start a Super League just last year.

https://www.espn.com/soccer/blog-ma...ill-a-court-case-revive-the-idea?platform=amp

Yeah, and i TRULY hope that if they try that in CFB it gets the same result. The fact many fans and even a few talking heads are starting to talk about regional appeal etc gives me some hope that the superleague wont happen.

The money will push hard for it, but maybe just maybe wisdom will trump greed.

 

[CloneJD]

ESPN article pushing college football super league stemming from European Soccer Super League.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-football-super-league-look-like?platform=amp

 

[Stormin]

It wasn’t that many years ago that the undefeated SEC Champion Auburn was not in the College Football Championship. PAC 12 Champ USC and Big 12 Champ Texas with Texas winning. Perceptions can change if Big 12 starts winning head to head.

 

[JUKEBOX]

Also I'm not sure if conferences could ever directly trim the fat as it's never been done before.

In the hypothetical that they'd try to remove non-earners from their bottom-line, I don't know if schools would just align directly and start a new conference, or if they would try to introduce subtle, arcane requirements that force out the small schools on their own. Like a minimum salary for players or something that the bottom-feeders can't finance, essentially forcing them out while pretending that the requirements are some kind of social good.

Probably what's most likely is that you'd have a TV rights broadcaster or something announce they're going to start a super league with insane payouts, and then all the blue-bloods would just leave when their contract expired and they got an invite.