Looking at advanced stats (S&P, FEI, FEI+), Toledo was a 100+ level program for 3-4 years before Campbell started there in 2009 as an OL coach and Run Game Coordinator. After that:
Year | Campbell's Position | Toledo Record | Toledo Adv Stat Rank | ISU Adv Stat Rank |
2009 | OL/RGC | 5-7 | 106 | 82 |
2010 | OL/OC | 8-5 | 76 | 75 |
2011 | OL/OC | 9-4 | 17 | 63 |
2012 | HC | 9-4 | 61 | 49 |
2013 | HC | 7-5 | 62 | 78 |
2014 | HC | 9-4 | 59 | 92 |
2015* | HC | 9-1 | 20 | 74 |
* Only through games on Nov 21.
I prefer to use advanced stats over polls because it accounts for SOS and uses play-by-play or drive-by-drive data to objectively grade a team's performance. So it looks like Campbell HAS helped build a program as one of the primary coaches during the original build (2009 - 2011), and then was able to keep the team competitive for a few years before beginning another run this year.
I went back and looked at Campbell relative to the analysis I posted earlier, and he's definitely got history coaching up talent. In both 2011 and 2015, Toledo had a Massey Composite that was significantly higher than what was reflected in their recruiting rankings. In the rest of the seasons they did about what was expected. In general, Toledo's average season was about 10 spots higher than talent alone would have predicted. In 2/7 seasons (29%) they had a breakout year, finishing 40 to 50 spots higher than predicted. In other words, Toledo recruits at a #70 FBS level team on average, but typically performs like a #60 team and, every four years, like a #20 - #30 team.