I get that. I just go back to Jeremy's post earlier in this thread where his inside info stated the folks involved here expect 3* recruits to have a going rate of $50 - $200k.
We'll have to rely on VERY under the radar guys if that is true.
I think the problem will be very evident that the limited money all comes from the same pool. Let’s say we somehow get up to $1mil/yr (I think we will be short of that) and our peers make at least $2mil/yr (many in our tier will vastly outperform that). That money has to go to new recruits and retention across all sports (realistically 95% MBB and FB).
Assuming we get bargain rate projects or 3-start players like today, and can get by with paying QBs 200k/yr, RBs 100K/yr, WRs 100K/yr, all others a total of 150k/yr, you’ve already eaten up 550K on key positions at a cut-rate amount compared to what anybody but maybe K-State will be offering. Even *Kansas* is projected to do around 2mil/yr just on football.
Then you are left with 450k/yr for basketball (less than a lot of peers will pay for one guy). That could get you 2-3 “good” players but no 4-stars… or possibly all-in on one guy like Tyrese or Omaha at still a below-market rate. Again, those rates are only that low until they develop and have breakout years and can demand much more.
I’m not a doomer or pessimist in any way… however, we are really going to be struggling to do more than get 3-star players that we can develop into something more and then hope we can built up enough loyalty that they’ll stick around at the lower rates we can offer. I think our advantage today is we are a developmental school, but that works because we can keep the developed version of those guys, that will be a huge struggle going forward.
I absolutely hate writing these posts because 1) everybody will label me a pessimist which I am definitely not, and 2) I hate what NIL is doing to schools like ISU that today have the ability to develop players and be competitive and make college sports the fun that they are.