Here's my conference realignment predictions from May 2, 2010:
Based on the information published in the papers, here's probably the best and most likely scenario:
1) The Big East stays as-is. Tagliabue and Notre Dame see to that. Everyone is "surprised" except those in the know.
Check.
2) The Big 12 ceases to exist.
Soon a check.
3) The Pac-10 Adds CU and BYU or Utah. Probably Utah. Maybe go for the 16 conference fit also, but probably not right now.
Check and Soon to be a check.
- I'm still not clear who those extra 4 teams will be, but looking like OU, OSU, TT and one more. ISU could fit here. Good crowds and Iowa population base already in AZ could be a factor as well as KU and KSU unwilling to separate assuming they're in the conversation.
4)
The Big 10 Adds NU (check), OU, KU, MU and ISU (for existing IU rivalry and in-state politicking) OR OSU (old Big 8 connections).
- Everyone on this board would talk me out of any B12 teams outside of OU and OSU going to Big 10. I was right on NU, but can see OU looking at West Coast for recruiting and easier schedule more likely. KU, MU and ISU are all better fits due to geography, AAU and culture than any Texas teams. Probably add one East Coast team to get to 16.
5) All the Texas schools that can make the cut go to SEC - TU, TTU, A&M and probably OSU due to close proximity.
Only A&M and maybe MU here will be a check soon.
6) Baylor goes to MWC or goes independent. Maybe even Conference USA.
7) KSU goes probably to MWC, possibly MAC. MWC if they're smart. Big East is a long shot.
8) IF MWC plays this right, they add at least two schools (KSU & BU) that would be good fit to argue for BCS conference status, especially since one BCS conference ceases to exist. Baylor is tough call as it has a higher perception of its academics, but beggars can't be choosers.
All big $ "rivalries" will now exist as non-conference affairs: OU-TU, etc. Non-big earning rivalries either cease to exist or die a slow death over time.
If ACC, SEC and ACC all go 16 team, Big East as a FB conference dies, but stays as a BB conference. ND would be in a tough spot if things go that far, but just like the slow motion implosion of the Big 12, that's probably another year or two down the road, but you never know.
If you notice, I've completely left Texas off of the realignment predictions. Texas will do whatever is the most advantageous at the moment and immediately start looking for greener pastures like they always have. They deserve to be independent and if the Conferences are smart, they won't touch them with a twenty thousand foot pole. They are kryptonite to league stability like no other.