Some of the models, mainly the Canadian, Ukmet and on and off the Euro have been showing a possible significant storm for this time frame. The GFS finally has at least partially hopped on board tonight.
What looks likely:
1.Warm Air Advection out ahead of the system tossing light 1-3 inch snowfalls Sunday night into Monday morning.
Beyond that 3 reasonable scenarios present themselves:
1. North stream sheared and fast, south stream slow, no phase whatsoever. Least likely scenario, all models have abandoned this solution and for awhile now.
2. Partial phase - interaction pulls storm north but it moves in a NE pattern, light snows in central Iowa Monday Night-Tuesday moderate in SE Iowa.OK, MO,IL, IN and OH get hit hard. This solution strikes me as most likely. Its just kinda hard to get a good complete phase, when your dealing with placement issues and you also have to worry about timing.
3. Complete Phase of storms- several models have shown this solution and have put out huge amounts. Low bombs out causing it to take more of a NNE path. Huge snow totals somewhere, likely some part of Iowa.
What looks likely:
1.Warm Air Advection out ahead of the system tossing light 1-3 inch snowfalls Sunday night into Monday morning.
Beyond that 3 reasonable scenarios present themselves:
1. North stream sheared and fast, south stream slow, no phase whatsoever. Least likely scenario, all models have abandoned this solution and for awhile now.
2. Partial phase - interaction pulls storm north but it moves in a NE pattern, light snows in central Iowa Monday Night-Tuesday moderate in SE Iowa.OK, MO,IL, IN and OH get hit hard. This solution strikes me as most likely. Its just kinda hard to get a good complete phase, when your dealing with placement issues and you also have to worry about timing.
3. Complete Phase of storms- several models have shown this solution and have put out huge amounts. Low bombs out causing it to take more of a NNE path. Huge snow totals somewhere, likely some part of Iowa.
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