They are desperate.
But I think the contradiction is that Cal and Stanford wouldn’t leave to make more money in the Big 12 as a Big 18 or Big 20, because it’s beneath them, yet their top potential additions are Cal St schools, Boise, BYU, Baylor, Houston etc
I really don't see how the PAC raids the Big XII. The numbers just don't make any sense unless the estimates for the next PAC deal are way off on the low end and the estimates for the next Big XII deal are way off on the high end.
The Big XII was estimated to get $10mil per year per school more than the PAC-12. Without UCLA and USC, the Big XII could get about $20mil per year per school more than the PAC. I don't see the logic in BYU, Houston, Baylor or anyone else making that move. I really don't see any combination of Big XII teams that could erase that deficit.
Even a full merger makes little sense unless the sum is worth more than the parts. Otherwise, the Big XII members would likely see a drop of about $10mil per school per year by taking on all 10 remaining PAC members. More importantly, that would drop the Big PAC well behind the ACC's payout.
All those numbers play out similarly for the ACC.
On the other hand, there are definitely some PAC schools that are worth more than $20mil per year and could join the Big XII or ACC without diluting the payout. OR, WA for sure. Probably Stanford, AZ, AZ St and Utah as well. Possibly CO.