Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[kcbob79clone]

What should Arizona and ASU do per the Athletic. Makes a good case for Big12 but also covers PAC ACC and B1G options.

What are Arizona and Arizona State's best realignment options?

The Arizona schools are in a difficult spot: Stay loyal to the conference brand or seek a more stable home?

theathletic.com

 

[exCyDing]

They are desperate.

But I think the contradiction is that Cal and Stanford wouldn’t leave to make more money in the Big 12 as a Big 18 or Big 20, because it’s beneath them, yet their top potential additions are Cal St schools, Boise, BYU, Baylor, Houston etc

I really don't see how the PAC raids the Big XII. The numbers just don't make any sense unless the estimates for the next PAC deal are way off on the low end and the estimates for the next Big XII deal are way off on the high end.

The Big XII was estimated to get $10mil per year per school more than the PAC-12. Without UCLA and USC, the Big XII could get about $20mil per year per school more than the PAC. I don't see the logic in BYU, Houston, Baylor or anyone else making that move. I really don't see any combination of Big XII teams that could erase that deficit.

Even a full merger makes little sense unless the sum is worth more than the parts. Otherwise, the Big XII members would likely see a drop of about $10mil per school per year by taking on all 10 remaining PAC members. More importantly, that would drop the Big PAC well behind the ACC's payout.

All those numbers play out similarly for the ACC.

On the other hand, there are definitely some PAC schools that are worth more than $20mil per year and could join the Big XII or ACC without diluting the payout. OR, WA for sure. Probably Stanford, AZ, AZ St and Utah as well. Possibly CO.

 

[Die4Cy]

I really don't see how the PAC raids the Big XII. The numbers just don't make any sense unless the estimates for the next PAC deal are way off on the low end and the estimates for the next Big XII deal are way off on the high end.

The Big XII was estimated to get $10mil per year per school more than the PAC-12. Without UCLA and USC, the Big XII could get about $20mil per year per school more than the PAC. I don't see the logic in BYU, Houston, Baylor or anyone else making that move. I really don't see any combination of Big XII teams that could erase that deficit.

Even a full merger makes little sense unless the sum is worth more than the parts. Otherwise, the Big XII members would likely see a drop of about $10mil per school per year by taking on all 10 remaining PAC members. More importantly, that would drop the Big PAC well behind the ACC's payout.

All those numbers play out similarly for the ACC.

On the other hand, there are definitely some PAC schools that are worth more than $20mil per year and could join the Big XII or ACC without diluting the payout. OR, WA for sure. Probably Stanford, AZ, AZ St and Utah as well. Possibly CO.

No Big 12 team is going to move there. There is no logic to it. I understand why they might wishcast on that, but it isn't happening. That conference is dead the minute UW or Oregon get the P2 call and everybody in their conference knows it.

I still believe the Big 12 should try and get Oregon, Washington, one of the Arizona schools, and Utah and just end this thing. It will be good money and fun as hell over here for everyone playing as equals. Choosing to stay in the PAC, even with some kind of scheduling arrangement with the ACC, is going to be limping along until someone does the humane thing here.

 

[HFCS]

What should Arizona and ASU do per the Athletic. Makes a good case for Big12 but also covers PAC ACC and B1G options.

What are Arizona and Arizona State's best realignment options?

The Arizona schools are in a difficult spot: Stay loyal to the conference brand or seek a more stable home?

theathletic.com

They are more of a geographic island than people realize. USC and UCLA were only realistic drives.

The road to SLC is crazy indirect, I hear there's a little bit of a crater in between.

Lots of 12-18 hour drives in both conferences as the new "close" teams.

Texas Tech is probably their closest possible conference mate going forward unless they stay in Pac and Pac adds UNLV or SDSU.

To some extent a "flight is a flight" but it has to make a difference for hours and fuel. The Big 12 definitely fits their geography at least as well, probably better without socal.

 

[HFCS]

No Big 12 team is going to move there. There is no logic to it. I understand why they might wishcast on that, but it isn't happening. That conference is dead the minute UW or Oregon get the P2 call and everybody in their conference knows it.

I still believe the Big 12 should try and get Oregon, Washington, one of the Arizona schools, and Utah and just end this thing. It will be good money and fun as hell over here for everyone playing as equals. Choosing to stay in the PAC, even with some kind of scheduling arrangement with the ACC, is going to be limping along until someone does the humane thing here.

There is DEFINITELY no logic to it when you see the Big 12 will be in position to add ACC orphans.

 

[isucy86]

I really don't see how the PAC raids the Big XII. The numbers just don't make any sense unless the estimates for the next PAC deal are way off on the low end and the estimates for the next Big XII deal are way off on the high end.

The Big XII was estimated to get $10mil per year per school more than the PAC-12. Without UCLA and USC, the Big XII could get about $20mil per year per school more than the PAC. I don't see the logic in BYU, Houston, Baylor or anyone else making that move. I really don't see any combination of Big XII teams that could erase that deficit.

Even a full merger makes little sense unless the sum is worth more than the parts. Otherwise, the Big XII members would likely see a drop of about $10mil per school per year by taking on all 10 remaining PAC members. More importantly, that would drop the Big PAC well behind the ACC's payout.

All those numbers play out similarly for the ACC.

On the other hand, there are definitely some PAC schools that are worth more than $20mil per year and could join the Big XII or ACC without diluting the payout. OR, WA for sure. Probably Stanford, AZ, AZ St and Utah as well. Possibly CO.

It would be interesting to see a per school media rights value for each Big12 and Pac12 school. My guess is Oregon and Washington are 25% above any of the other 20 teams. But they don't have nearly the pull as USC, UCLA, OU or UT.

With the timing of Pac12 & Big12 TV Rights negotiations, a natural would be joining of the most valuable schools. But to maximize per school revenue, it would mean dropping the bottom 2, 4 or 6 schools.

 

[Die4Cy]

There is DEFINITELY no logic to it when you see the Big 12 will be in position to add ACC orphans.

The great thing about the Big 12 being picked over twice by other conferences is that the rest of us have nowhere to go and are truly committed to having the best possible league going forward.

 

[cyatheart]

The Big 12 after adding the 4 corners will be known as
T (he)
E (astern)
C (entral)
M (ountain)
O (utstanding)

Conference.

This is best post in the history of this website and it's not close.

 

[exCyDing]

The great thing about the Big 12 being picked over twice by other conferences is that the rest of us have nowhere to go and are truly committed to having the best possible league going forward.

The Big XII has one thing the PAC and ACC don’t: stability from inside the conference. The PAC is probably dead as power conference as soon as schools can evaluate the different options and the ACC is probably dead as soon as the buyout for the GOR makes economic sense.

 

[ISUCubswin]

I liked Staples idea.

Big 12 offers Oregon and Washington a spot in the league with a right to leave the minute SEC or Big 10 get calling with no penalty.

That would officially end the PAC, then go grab your 4 corner schools.

By the time SEC or Big 10 take Oregon and Washington, ACC will be getting raided. We take our seconds.

 

[2speedy1]

To some extent a "flight is a flight" but it has to make a difference for hours and fuel. The Big 12 definitely fits their geography at least as well, probably better without socal.

I understand the people that say a "flight is a flight" But as fans a 300 mile road trip is a lot better than a 1500 mile one.

I hate the fact that all of these games are getting less and less drivable. As a fanbase that is notorious for our traveling fans, it is going to get harder and harder the longer these trips get.

I wish we had the luxury of the Big 10 west for how close all of the road games are. Every single opponent in the Big 10 west is closer than our closest in the Big 12.

We will see how the Big 10 changes things moving forward, if they can maintain that regionality as things move forward. We know it is going to at least change some with USCLA.

 

[HFCS]

I understand the people that say a "flight is a flight" But as fans a 300 mile road trip is a lot better than a 1500 mile one.

I hate the fact that all of these games are getting less and less drivable. As a fanbase that is notorious for our traveling fans, it is going to get harder and harder the longer these trips get.

I wish we had the luxury of the Big 10 west for how close all of the road games are. Every single opponent in the Big 10 west is closer than our closest in the Big 12.

We will see how the Big 10 changes things moving forward, if they can maintain that regionality as things move forward. We know it is going to at least change some with USCLA.

Just looking at Arizona schools, they've never had nice road trips. 9-11 hours to socal was their best and that is far with potential for insane traffic entering from far east metro sprawl.

The entire Pac has always had to travel a ton. Each school only had one local rival, then the next two really weren't that close. Utah and CU weren't really close to anybody either when they joined.

Even after being endlessly picked over, ISU/KU/KSU/OKSt is a closer block of schools than any of these Pac schools will every have in any conference.

Driving LA to bay area isn't a picnic because of traffic. I've done it a few times. It's a range of 5-10 hours, that's how wildly different it can be depending on which part you are heading toward.

 

[2speedy1]

Just looking at Arizona schools, they've never had nice road trips. 9-11 hours to socal was their best and that is far with potential for insane traffic entering from far east metro sprawl.

The entire Pac has always had to travel a ton. Each school only had one local rival, then the next two really weren't that close. Utah and CU weren't really close to anybody either when they joined.

Even after being endlessly picked over, ISU/KU/KSU/OKSt is a closer block of schools than any of these Pac schools will every have in any conference.

Driving LA to bay area isn't a picnic because of traffic. I've done it a few times. It's a range of 5-10 hours, that's how wildly different it can be depending on which part you are heading toward.

Yeah, to be fair, the old Big 8 was pretty good. Then the Big 12 started to get worse, then as teams left and joined it just continued to get worse.

I agree with the Pac though not a lot of regionality there.

 

[LLCoolCY]

I liked Staples idea.

Big 12 offers Oregon and Washington a spot in the league with a right to leave the minute SEC or Big 10 get calling with no penalty.

That would officially end the PAC, then go grab your 4 corner schools.

By the time SEC or Big 10 take Oregon and Washington, ACC will be getting raided. We take our seconds.

Cant agree with this. We finally have some sense of stability to become a conference. I don't want to add with two schools positioning themselves to jump at any time. UW and ORE would have voting rights and vote with their future in mind. USC was the driving force in not taking the Big 12 schools last summer. We now know that reason was to keep the door open to move to the Big 10 this year. Either your in or not.
Plus I am pretty confident UA and Colorado are coming barring some miracle parachute by ESPN and they want to be in the B12 with or without UW/ORE.

 

[Clonedogg]

I liked Staples idea.

Big 12 offers Oregon and Washington a spot in the league with a right to leave the minute SEC or Big 10 get calling with no penalty.

That would officially end the PAC, then go grab your 4 corner schools.

By the time SEC or Big 10 take Oregon and Washington, ACC will be getting raided. We take our seconds.

Cant agree with this. We finally have some sense of stability to become a conference. I don't want to add with two schools positioning themselves to jump at any time. UW and ORE would have voting rights and vote with their future in mind. USC was the driving force in not taking the Big 12 schools last summer. We now know that reason was to keep the door open to move to the Big 10 this year. Either your in or not.
Plus I am pretty confident UA and Colorado are coming barring some miracle parachute by ESPN and they want to be in the B12 with or without UW/ORE.

You both make compelling arguments, I agree with you both, lol.

 

[scyclonekid]

The four corners need to wise up and just join already.

 

[isucy86]

I liked Staples idea.

Big 12 offers Oregon and Washington a spot in the league with a right to leave the minute SEC or Big 10 get calling with no penalty.

That would officially end the PAC, then go grab your 4 corner schools.

By the time SEC or Big 10 take Oregon and Washington, ACC will be getting raided. We take our seconds.

What would our media partners say? If Oregon & Washington would have the right to leave, then our media partners would want the right to lower payments or re-open the contract.

I like the idea since it would probably move realignment along, but I would be surprised if AD's would want a situation where they make x dollars one year and the following year make x- dollars.

It could work because losing UW & Oregon may negatively impact rights fees by 15-20% .

 

[Cyclonepride]

Cant agree with this. We finally have some sense of stability to become a conference. I don't want to add with two schools positioning themselves to jump at any time. UW and ORE would have voting rights and vote with their future in mind. USC was the driving force in not taking the Big 12 schools last summer. We now know that reason was to keep the door open to move to the Big 10 this year. Either your in or not.
Plus I am pretty confident UA and Colorado are coming barring some miracle parachute by ESPN and they want to be in the B12 with or without UW/ORE.

I agree. Add UW and Oregon if they want the standard offer that we're willing to give. If not, just take ASU, Arizona, Colorado and Utah..

 

[WhoISthis]

I really don't see how the PAC raids the Big XII. The numbers just don't make any sense unless the estimates for the next PAC deal are way off on the low end and the estimates for the next Big XII deal are way off on the high end.

The Big XII was estimated to get $10mil per year per school more than the PAC-12. Without UCLA and USC, the Big XII could get about $20mil per year per school more than the PAC. I don't see the logic in BYU, Houston, Baylor or anyone else making that move. I really don't see any combination of Big XII teams that could erase that deficit.

Even a full merger makes little sense unless the sum is worth more than the parts. Otherwise, the Big XII members would likely see a drop of about $10mil per school per year by taking on all 10 remaining PAC members. More importantly, that would drop the Big PAC well behind the ACC's payout.

All those numbers play out similarly for the ACC.

On the other hand, there are definitely some PAC schools that are worth more than $20mil per year and could join the Big XII or ACC without diluting the payout. OR, WA for sure. Probably Stanford, AZ, AZ St and Utah as well. Possibly CO.

ESPN is how.

Not necessarily this summer, but say ESPN overpays for Pac10 this summer, then in 3 years doesn’t bid for Big 12. Then a few programs go P10 and other ACC. The leftovers fall for ESPN’s plot, as two middle class conferences allows the P2 to separate faster. P3 is best for leftovers, a P2+2 better for a network wanting a P2 with less competition

ESPN is being a little *****. They’d make more adding top of Pac to Big 12. Call that 16 or 18 schools the PAC if they need to.

I

 

[RustShack]

What would our media partners say? If Oregon & Washington would have the right to leave, then our media partners would want the right to lower payments or re-open the contract.

I like the idea since it would probably move realignment along, but I would be surprised if AD's would want a situation where they make x dollars one year and the following year make x- dollars.

It could work because losing UW & Oregon may negatively impact rights fees by 15-20% .

If they leave, then we get what we would have gotten without them. Why not make more until the ACC is raided which is when they would leave anyways, when we also raid the ACC.