Hard to rank Colorado until we know who is actually on their team for 24-25...
2024-25 ISU FB Early Predictions and Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter Jer
- Start date
7-5 should be considered a massive disappointment. On paper were were thing or unproven everywhere and started a RS Frosh QB who didn't know he was starting until the summer.
On paper we return all of our best skill players on the offensive side of the ball. Defenensively, at least at this point on the line, we don't lose anyone of significance. Tampa is a huge loss but there are a lot of guys coming back.
The big question marks are OL and STs. I'd like to think we are turning a corner on STs, but until we do well consistently it should always be a concern.
Anything less than 8 wins, with our schedule, should be considered a disappointment.
I’m sure will let us know and constantly remind us this next year as soon as the first pass is incomplete.
I really don't think 7-5 is a disappointment. We have a long way to go defensively imo, especially given the showing vs Memphis and losing Tampa.
This team is still gonna be very young, and to be honest, I'm expecting OL and ST to be iffy. 7-5 would be status quo or even great, depending on the wins. I see no reason to push expectations further. I'm looking forward to an exciting season.
I think every team feels optimistic during the offseason. I dont fault ISUfans for thinking they're going to win the title next year. I dont think any team goes unbeaten, and 2 or 3 losses may get you in. Should be a lot of parity. There are some very salty qbs in the big 12 next year. houston, cinn, arz state, and baylor may be as close to sure wins as there is.
schedule will play a major part in whether a good team has 2 or 3 losses.
I listened to a WVU podcast the other day where the guy said 10 wins was the floor, and a cfp berth was expected.
Im as much a homer as anyone, but penn state to open, at pitt ooc. 2-0 there is hard.
then wvu gets pretty much every team that's ranked in the preseason, plus Iowa State, who has NB's number.
if i had to put a number on WVU, id say 8-4. just aren't going to win every gsme when you have PSU, @ Pitt, @ arz, @ oklahoma state, @ texas tech, isu, kansas, kstate baylor ucf at home.
schedule will play a major part in whether a good team has 2 or 3 losses.
I listened to a WVU podcast the other day where the guy said 10 wins was the floor, and a cfp berth was expected.
Im as much a homer as anyone, but penn state to open, at pitt ooc. 2-0 there is hard.
then wvu gets pretty much every team that's ranked in the preseason, plus Iowa State, who has NB's number.
if i had to put a number on WVU, id say 8-4. just aren't going to win every gsme when you have PSU, @ Pitt, @ arz, @ oklahoma state, @ texas tech, isu, kansas, kstate baylor ucf at home.
I’m actually shaking my head reading through the posts on this thread reeking of recency bias. All the ones talking about how bad our defense was last season.
Prior to the Mess in Manhattan—where clearly, no one could play defense—and the debacle in Memphis—where we played a vastly more experienced team on their own home turf—we were at the top of the conference on defense.
Number one in total defense, scoring defense and pass defense, iirc.
This wasn’t a bad defense. Sure, the linebackers were green and the safeties injury prone. Well, that’s what experience and an offseason is all about. Nine starters back is a GOOD thing.
The linebackers will be better. I’d like to see Kooper Ebel win the Will spot, but it looks like there are probably four guys who will be candidates.
I saw someone mention that Darien Porter wasn’t used much at corner this year. Hello? There’s a reason for that—he was dinged up a good portion of the season.
And the offense will be what it will be. Coach Scheelhaase gained experience and confidence as the season progressed—and so did Rocco…and everyone else.
And even better, it looks like we patched spots there that we needed to…even with every starter back.
Now, to find a corner good enough to help in the playing rotation. Unless, of course, David Coffey or Khijonn Cummings-Coleman are that good.
We now have a tradition with true freshmen playing to uphold, after all!
24. Iowa State (Previous: 23)
Matt Campbell did not need to load up in the portal because the Cyclones return nearly their entire starting lineup, most notably QB Rocco Becht. RB Abu Sama III (7.3 YPC), top WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel and all five O-line starters return. Army WR Isaiah Alston could help the passing game. The Big 12’s No. 1 defense gets back DE Joey Petersen, LB Caleb Bacon and All-Big 12 safeties Jeremiah Cooper and Beau Freyler.
Should wins:
UND
ASU
Cincy
Likely wins:
Baylor
@Houston
Toss-ups:
@WVU
UCF
Texas Tech
@ KU
Unlikely:
@ Iowa
@ Utah
KSU
Win 4/5 in the first two categories, win 2/4 of the tossups and you're in a bowl. Win 3/4 or 4/4 of the toss-ups and it could be a special season
UND
ASU
Cincy
Likely wins:
Baylor
@Houston
Toss-ups:
@WVU
UCF
Texas Tech
@ KU
Unlikely:
@ Iowa
@ Utah
KSU
Win 4/5 in the first two categories, win 2/4 of the tossups and you're in a bowl. Win 3/4 or 4/4 of the toss-ups and it could be a special season
FIFY:
Should wins:
UND
ASU
Cincy
@Houston
Likely wins:
Baylor
Texas Tech
UCF
Toss-ups:
@WVU
@ KU
KSU
@ Iowa
Unlikely:
@ Utah
I wouldn’t not put Kansas State in the unlikely. Pretty good chance of winning that. Agree with utah and Iowa. I think we end up 9-3.
I'll give you the Houston and KSU adjustments if you want but Iowa is a loss for me at Kinnick until I see otherwise
That's reasonable. However, we did just beat them there in 2022.
Wins: UND, Ark St, Cincy, Baylor, UCF
Losses: at UU, at UI, at WV
Toss-ups: Tech, KSU, at Hou, at KU
So put me down for 7-5.
FWIW, last year I thought 5-7. I think I can be forgiven for that, many were much more pessimistic, and new QB, etc was a major concern.
But worse, 2 of my 3 predicted wins were losses (Ohio & KU), and 3 of 5 predicted losses were wins (BYU, KSU, Baylor). And they won 3 of 4 toss-ups. LOL.
Hopefully I am 2 games too pessimistic this year too!
Losses: at UU, at UI, at WV
Toss-ups: Tech, KSU, at Hou, at KU
So put me down for 7-5.
FWIW, last year I thought 5-7. I think I can be forgiven for that, many were much more pessimistic, and new QB, etc was a major concern.
But worse, 2 of my 3 predicted wins were losses (Ohio & KU), and 3 of 5 predicted losses were wins (BYU, KSU, Baylor). And they won 3 of 4 toss-ups. LOL.
Hopefully I am 2 games too pessimistic this year too!
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
Anywhere from 7-9 seems reasonable. I wouldn't quibble with anything in that range.
I wouldn't even argue that more isn't really possible, but I'd want to see that happen before jumping at that conclusion.
I wouldn't even argue that more isn't really possible, but I'd want to see that happen before jumping at that conclusion.
You mean like the last time we were there?
I think Iowa is going to be a considerably better team in 2024 than they were in 2022. We should be too. But face it, we've won 1 time in like 7 years or whatever. I've just given up expecting a win there.
Okay, the schedule is now out I will somewhat agree with you, primarily because we got "hosed" on the home vs away difficulty.
It's kind of crazy but outside of playing Houston on the road, all of our road games are against our tougher opponents. On paper our toughest opponents are Iowa, WVU, Kansas, Utah, and KSU and of those KSU is the only one we play at home. I think we easily win all of our home games outside of KSU and beat Houston on the road. Our floor should be very high (as we should be fairly good and have a very easy home schedule) while the ceiling could be capped with very tough road games.
The optimist in me says we Win at Kansas and beat KSU at home (new QB for them...on the road). I'd like to think we can beat Iowa but until Campbell quits shatting the bed I pencil it as an auto loss. Utah and WVU will be VERY tough games and given the dynamics (quality of opening, atmosphere, elevation, travel distance, time zone change) I'm pencling those as losses.
I will say low end 6 victories (things go wrong within a reasonably level), likely 7 minimum, with an absolute ceiling of 10 (realistic ceiling of 9). That's a pretty tight compression but that's largely dictated by the schedule. Not sure I can recall such an imbalance in home v away difficulty.
Yes and yes. Winning once, while likely having better teams in at least 3 of those years was a missed opportunity with Brain handicapping their offense. Presumably that handicap is gone now and the wins, assuming a comparable quality in rosters, should be harder to come by.
Great defeated inferior mindset. I’m sure that works well for you in life.
