MLB: ***2024 Minnesota Twins***

[clone52]

I was really hoping they could get one at home. At least this game was more exciting than yesterday. Team needs some more hitting.

I think they need more mature hitting.

I'd love to see an analysis of their 40 man roster and Rule 5 eligible players. They currently have 46 players on the 40 man (6 guys on the 60 day IL), so they'll have to get rid of 6 to start. I think the 60 day DL does not count for rule 5 purposes. You won't have Gallo and Kuechel for sure. Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Solano, Taylor, Pagan are all free agents and hypothetically, you might not sign them until after the Rule V draft, so that gets you down to 36.
De Leon, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, Ortega, Luplow, Gordon are all guys you might take off the 40 man roster and risk losing, so it'd be pretty easy to get down to 30 players if you needed to. Lets assume you either resign free agents or keep some from the group I mention and get your roster to 34 players. 6 spots for Rule V protection.


Going through their top prospects, there aren't a lot of guys who are shoe ins for needing to be protected. Lots of the best guys are not eligible this year. Yunior Severino has to be protected 100%. He likely debuts next year. Guessing he ends up a 1B, but he's been playing mostly 3B, 2B and DH so far, so there are options.
Blaine Enlow you probably don't protect.
Cody Laweryson (RP) you probably need to protect.
I think you need to protect Catchers Jair Camargo and Chris Williams. How about AA C David Benuelos or Alex Isola who had a great years? By the way, I wonder if the Twins have ever had a year where only 2 guys played C all season. Amazing that neither Jeffers or Vasquez got banged up at all.
Gotta protect DaShawn Kiersey Jr.
They protected 4 last year. I think its Severino, Kiersey, Laweryson and 2 catchers for sure. Maybe 1 more.

Look out at the 2024 and 2025 trade deadlines. I think the Twins have a lot of really good prospects that would become Rule V eligible in 2024 and 2025 and their 40 man roster might not have a ton of guys you want to get rid of on it.
2024 has: David Festa, Noah Miller, Noah Cardenas
2025 has: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jose Salas, Kala'i Rosario, Ricardo Olivar,
All of those guys could be hot trade chips, or make some of the current players hot trade chips and the Twins wouldn't be handcuffing their depth by trading any of them really.

Here would be my offseason plans.
Exercise the options on Kepler and Polanco. They are still worth that money and depth is never bad. You might still consider trades, but no way to you let them just walk.
Re-sign Michael Taylor. Unless you decide you are rolling with young guys in CF. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Deshawn Kiersey are all possible options. I'd go Kiersey to start.
Try to re-sign Solano. I imagine he's not going to get more than $5M and he's worth that for depth.
Keep Castro
Keep Farmer (although not 100% sold on this).
Keep Stevenson
QA offer to Gray and try to sign him to a contract (but you probably lose him)
Try to sign Maeda, but don't break the bank (and you probably lose him)
Try to sign Mahle on a sweetheart Make-good deal.
Assuming you lose both Gray and Maeda, sign a SP in the $10-$15M range on a short term deal.
Let Gallo walk (duh)
Let Pagan walk (unless you can sign him for a 1 year, cheap contract, like $3M or less)
Other spots are going to depend on the Rule V stuff. Guys like Winder, Luplow, Gordon, Sands are cheap, but if you need roster space, they aren't horrible losses.
You actually have a nice foundation for a bullpen. I think Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart and Funderburk are a really nice start.

 

[clone52]

Putting Buxton in the 9th to bat was plain stupid. He hasn't seen a major league pitch in 3 months. Either start him in the 1st inning, or sit him. Pinch hitting is tough.... with the game on the line and zero at bats for half the season, he was not the right batter.

He has seen live major league hitting in the last week or so, just not in front of fans. I know they had some of their pitchers that aren't on the roster going all out to get him out.

I sure hope he was hitting them well. If he was struggling against them, then it was a bad choice. If he was crushing that live pitching, then I like the move. Taylor was 2 for 12 with 5 K's and no walks in the post season, Could have tried Wallner, but he was 0-8 with 5 K's and 3 BB in the post season. Maybe you try Andrew Stevenson if he's a good bunter, but Houston would have played the corners way in. Kyle Farmer might have been the play there, but his only hit was against a lefty. However, the Twins were 3-0 when Farmer played and 0-3 when he didn't.

Honestly, the Twins hitters were just so brutal all series. 52K's in 4 games is insane. They were almost as bad against the Blue Jays. They needed a spark so I'm not to upset by that.

I said when the 9th started, the Twins would either win the game or get 3 strikeouts to end it. There was going to be no middle ground.

 

[cytor]

Yep, 6 hits in the last 2 games will not get it done. They were outmatched.

 

[cyclones122]

Fun season overall. Great to get the young guys that playoff experience. Pretty obvious (and has been said here already) but priority #1 must be getting a couple reliable bats. Don't need to break the bank, just have to get guys that consistently put the ball in play and get on base. Just way, way to many strike outs all season long. If they can address that, no reason they can't be right back here next season and win and advance.

 

[JM4CY]

Putting Buxton in the 9th to bat was plain stupid. He hasn't seen a major league pitch in 3 months. Either start him in the 1st inning, or sit him. Pinch hitting is tough.... with the game on the line and zero at bats for half the season, he was not the right batter.

None of them had hit consistently outside of Lewis and Correa, and most of them not at all, all playoffs. It was a long shot for sure but it had to be tried.

 

[cytor]

Honestly, I am kinda done with Buxton. High upside, but can NEVER stay healthy. I would rather get a more everyday player that can hit somewhat consistently. This team strikes out WAY TOO MUCH.

I'm not at all concerned by trading Buxton and him becoming the next David Ortiz.

 

[Nococy]

I think they need more mature hitting.

I'd love to see an analysis of their 40 man roster and Rule 5 eligible players. They currently have 46 players on the 40 man (6 guys on the 60 day IL), so they'll have to get rid of 6 to start. I think the 60 day DL does not count for rule 5 purposes. You won't have Gallo and Kuechel for sure. Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Solano, Taylor, Pagan are all free agents and hypothetically, you might not sign them until after the Rule V draft, so that gets you down to 36.
De Leon, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, Ortega, Luplow, Gordon are all guys you might take off the 40 man roster and risk losing, so it'd be pretty easy to get down to 30 players if you needed to. Lets assume you either resign free agents or keep some from the group I mention and get your roster to 34 players. 6 spots for Rule V protection.


Going through their top prospects, there aren't a lot of guys who are shoe ins for needing to be protected. Lots of the best guys are not eligible this year. Yunior Severino has to be protected 100%. He likely debuts next year. Guessing he ends up a 1B, but he's been playing mostly 3B, 2B and DH so far, so there are options.
Blaine Enlow you probably don't protect.
Cody Laweryson (RP) you probably need to protect.
I think you need to protect Catchers Jair Camargo and Chris Williams. How about AA C David Benuelos or Alex Isola who had a great years? By the way, I wonder if the Twins have ever had a year where only 2 guys played C all season. Amazing that neither Jeffers or Vasquez got banged up at all.
Gotta protect DaShawn Kiersey Jr.
They protected 4 last year. I think its Severino, Kiersey, Laweryson and 2 catchers for sure. Maybe 1 more.

Look out at the 2024 and 2025 trade deadlines. I think the Twins have a lot of really good prospects that would become Rule V eligible in 2024 and 2025 and their 40 man roster might not have a ton of guys you want to get rid of on it.
2024 has: David Festa, Noah Miller, Noah Cardenas
2025 has: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jose Salas, Kala'i Rosario, Ricardo Olivar,
All of those guys could be hot trade chips, or make some of the current players hot trade chips and the Twins wouldn't be handcuffing their depth by trading any of them really.

Here would be my offseason plans.
Exercise the options on Kepler and Polanco. They are still worth that money and depth is never bad. You might still consider trades, but no way to you let them just walk.
Re-sign Michael Taylor. Unless you decide you are rolling with young guys in CF. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Deshawn Kiersey are all possible options. I'd go Kiersey to start.
Try to re-sign Solano. I imagine he's not going to get more than $5M and he's worth that for depth.
Keep Castro
Keep Farmer (although not 100% sold on this).
Keep Stevenson
QA offer to Gray and try to sign him to a contract (but you probably lose him)
Try to sign Maeda, but don't break the bank (and you probably lose him)
Try to sign Mahle on a sweetheart Make-good deal.
Assuming you lose both Gray and Maeda, sign a SP in the $10-$15M range on a short term deal.
Let Gallo walk (duh)
Let Pagan walk (unless you can sign him for a 1 year, cheap contract, like $3M or less)
Other spots are going to depend on the Rule V stuff. Guys like Winder, Luplow, Gordon, Sands are cheap, but if you need roster space, they aren't horrible losses.
You actually have a nice foundation for a bullpen. I think Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart and Funderburk are a really nice start.

remember we might have chris paddack back as a starter after missing most of the year due to tommy john surgery

 

[JM4CY]

Honestly, I am kinda done with Buxton. High upside, but can NEVER stay healthy. I would rather get a more everyday player that can hit somewhat consistently. This team strikes out WAY TOO MUCH.

I'm not at all concerned by trading Buxton and him becoming the next David Ortiz.

No one is going to pay for him to not play.

 

[JM4CY]

I think they need more mature hitting.

I'd love to see an analysis of their 40 man roster and Rule 5 eligible players. They currently have 46 players on the 40 man (6 guys on the 60 day IL), so they'll have to get rid of 6 to start. I think the 60 day DL does not count for rule 5 purposes. You won't have Gallo and Kuechel for sure. Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Solano, Taylor, Pagan are all free agents and hypothetically, you might not sign them until after the Rule V draft, so that gets you down to 36.
De Leon, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, Ortega, Luplow, Gordon are all guys you might take off the 40 man roster and risk losing, so it'd be pretty easy to get down to 30 players if you needed to. Lets assume you either resign free agents or keep some from the group I mention and get your roster to 34 players. 6 spots for Rule V protection.


Going through their top prospects, there aren't a lot of guys who are shoe ins for needing to be protected. Lots of the best guys are not eligible this year. Yunior Severino has to be protected 100%. He likely debuts next year. Guessing he ends up a 1B, but he's been playing mostly 3B, 2B and DH so far, so there are options.
Blaine Enlow you probably don't protect.
Cody Laweryson (RP) you probably need to protect.
I think you need to protect Catchers Jair Camargo and Chris Williams. How about AA C David Benuelos or Alex Isola who had a great years? By the way, I wonder if the Twins have ever had a year where only 2 guys played C all season. Amazing that neither Jeffers or Vasquez got banged up at all.
Gotta protect DaShawn Kiersey Jr.
They protected 4 last year. I think its Severino, Kiersey, Laweryson and 2 catchers for sure. Maybe 1 more.

Look out at the 2024 and 2025 trade deadlines. I think the Twins have a lot of really good prospects that would become Rule V eligible in 2024 and 2025 and their 40 man roster might not have a ton of guys you want to get rid of on it.
2024 has: David Festa, Noah Miller, Noah Cardenas
2025 has: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jose Salas, Kala'i Rosario, Ricardo Olivar,
All of those guys could be hot trade chips, or make some of the current players hot trade chips and the Twins wouldn't be handcuffing their depth by trading any of them really.

Here would be my offseason plans.
Exercise the options on Kepler and Polanco. They are still worth that money and depth is never bad. You might still consider trades, but no way to you let them just walk.
Re-sign Michael Taylor. Unless you decide you are rolling with young guys in CF. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Deshawn Kiersey are all possible options. I'd go Kiersey to start.
Try to re-sign Solano. I imagine he's not going to get more than $5M and he's worth that for depth.
Keep Castro
Keep Farmer (although not 100% sold on this).
Keep Stevenson
QA offer to Gray and try to sign him to a contract (but you probably lose him)
Try to sign Maeda, but don't break the bank (and you probably lose him)
Try to sign Mahle on a sweetheart Make-good deal.
Assuming you lose both Gray and Maeda, sign a SP in the $10-$15M range on a short term deal.
Let Gallo walk (duh)
Let Pagan walk (unless you can sign him for a 1 year, cheap contract, like $3M or less)
Other spots are going to depend on the Rule V stuff. Guys like Winder, Luplow, Gordon, Sands are cheap, but if you need roster space, they aren't horrible losses.
You actually have a nice foundation for a bullpen. I think Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart and Funderburk are a really nice start.

Pablo, Ryan, Ober, (sign someone or resign Gray somehow if its not insanely expensive, eventually his age will show), and then Paddock or another signing. Maeda will probably cost to much and I don't think he's worth it.

I think you keep Varland in the pen.

One of Duran, Jax, CT, or Stewart is going to poop the bed and not be good. That seems to be the way the bullpen is. It's a fickle beast. I'd like to see more out of Winder but I think you go get another LH RP if you can. I need to see more out of Funderburk before I count on him.

I'd keep Castro or Taylor to play CF but I don't think either will hit as well as they did this year again.

It'd be great if some idiot team would be willing to trade for Vasquez. That signing was just horrible and not worth the money at all. Maybe you salary dump him for beans and recoup some dollars to sign Gray.

 

[Iastfan112]

Pablo, Ryan, Ober, (sign someone or resign Gray somehow if its not insanely expensive, eventually his age will show), and then Paddock or another signing. Maeda will probably cost to much and I don't think he's worth it.

I think you keep Varland in the pen.

One of Duran, Jax, CT, or Stewart is going to poop the bed and not be good. That seems to be the way the bullpen is. It's a fickle beast. I'd like to see more out of Winder but I think you go get another LH RP if you can. I need to see more out of Funderburk before I count on him.

I'd keep Castro or Taylor to play CF but I don't think either will hit as well as they did this year again.

It'd be great if some idiot team would be willing to trade for Vasquez. That signing was just horrible and not worth the money at all. Maybe you salary dump him for beans and recoup some dollars to sign Gray.

Gray just had a borderline Cy Young type season, he's going to be expensive. Varland absolutely should get another chance to start. He's been passable in that role and you need at least two decent starting pitchers in addition to the 4 you named. Starting pitching is expensive and the Twins upper minors are fairly thin on it at this point so you don't switch starters to relief without them failing in the former role first.

 

[JM4CY]

Gray just had a borderline Cy Young type season, he's going to be expensive. Varland absolutely should get another chance to start. He's been passable in that role and you need at least two decent starting pitchers in addition to the 4 you named. Starting pitching is expensive and the Twins upper minors are fairly thin on it at this point so you don't switch starters to relief without them failing in the former role first.

Varland's sample size is still small. He was fine in may but terrible in June. I'm not a proponent of pissing around and enduring a starter with a plus 5 era when they can sign someone else who can be better and when the same guy has shown to be lights out in the pen. Use him where you setting him up to succeed. Try him again as a starter if you want but it should be a mildly quick hook to back to a setup guy.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Honestly, I am kinda done with Buxton. High upside, but can NEVER stay healthy. I would rather get a more everyday player that can hit somewhat consistently. This team strikes out WAY TOO MUCH.

I'm not at all concerned by trading Buxton and him becoming the next David Ortiz.

He's 29, almost 30. How much upside could he possibly have at this point? A guy who is going to strike out a ton, bat around .220 with ok but not great power. Good defensively, but can never stay healthy. Idk, seems like the luster is pretty much gone at this point.

 

[Marcelason78]

Pablo, Ryan, Ober, (sign someone or resign Gray somehow if its not insanely expensive, eventually his age will show), and then Paddock or another signing. Maeda will probably cost to much and I don't think he's worth it.

I think you keep Varland in the pen.

One of Duran, Jax, CT, or Stewart is going to poop the bed and not be good. That seems to be the way the bullpen is. It's a fickle beast. I'd like to see more out of Winder but I think you go get another LH RP if you can. I need to see more out of Funderburk before I count on him.

I'd keep Castro or Taylor to play CF but I don't think either will hit as well as they did this year again.

It'd be great if some idiot team would be willing to trade for Vasquez. That signing was just horrible and not worth the money at all. Maybe you salary dump him for beans and recoup some dollars to sign Gray.

I don’t think the Twins will give Gray the big money.
I’m most interested to see what they do with Lee and where he plays. The only spots I see the Twins cemented at are SS, Third, and Catcher. How the Twins handle Kepler, Polanco, and Buxton/Taylor with the young core performing well will be curious.
Agree on the need for a lefty in pen. I’m sure the off-season trades and FA will address this.

 

[AuH2O]

remember we might have chris paddack back as a starter after missing most of the year due to tommy john surgery

I'm excited about this. I think Paddack has IT.

 

[clone52]

He's 29, almost 30. How much upside could he possibly have at this point? A guy who is going to strike out a ton, bat around .220 with ok but not great power. Good defensively, but can never stay healthy. Idk, seems like the luster is pretty much gone at this point.

The health is really the factor here. If he can get relatively healthy, he's not a .220 hitter with okay but not great power. He's a borderline MVP type player on a incredibly reasonable contract.

Its a moot point, though. He's not going anywhere. Twins aren't going to trade him. If they wanted to trade him, no other team is going to give them enough to make it worth it. If they wanted to trade him and they got a good deal, Buxton has a no trade clause.

The good news is that the Twins are only paying him $15M a year, when he probably could have earned much more and been a much bigger albatross if he can't stay healthy.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

The health is really the factor here. If he can get relatively healthy, he's not a .220 hitter with okay but not great power. He's a borderline MVP type player on a incredibly reasonable contract.

Its a moot point, though. He's not going anywhere. Twins aren't going to trade him. If they wanted to trade him, no other team is going to give them enough to make it worth it. If they wanted to trade him and they got a good deal, Buxton has a no trade clause.

The good news is that the Twins are only paying him $15M a year, when he probably could have earned much more and been a much bigger albatross if he can't stay healthy.

.220 might be a little bit lowball estimate, but he is only at .239 for his career. I just think his best days are behind him already, which is sad, because he was a guy who was kind of supposed to be the center piece for a lengthy period of time at one point.

 

[AuH2O]

Fun season overall. Great to get the young guys that playoff experience. Pretty obvious (and has been said here already) but priority #1 must be getting a couple reliable bats. Don't need to break the bank, just have to get guys that consistently put the ball in play and get on base. Just way, way to many strike outs all season long. If they can address that, no reason they can't be right back here next season and win and advance.

Even if they break the bank, this is what this team needs if they are going to go far in the postseason.

This is the balance you have to figure out in baseball, which I think is kind of a cool thing. And it's also not a shock to see strange outcomes in the playoffs. In other sports people talk about style of play changing. That's true to an extent, but in baseball it is a very different game and building a roster to win 100 games is not necessarily one that wins you a lot of postseason games.

The Twins' bats were largely high slugging, high strikeout mistake hitters. Half your games in the regular season are going to be against #4s, #5s, and the lesser #3 starters. That style works to pile up stats and wins in the regular season. That approach gets you beat 3-1 in a DS. Now Urquidy and Javier were not great this season, in fact you could probably say Urquidy was fairly bad this year. But, to their credit, they did have really good clutch starts at the end of the regular season for whatever reason. So you could say both were coming into the postseason pitching their best. And not to oversimlify it, but they were throwing breaking balls for strikes. Maybe not even hitting spots. Against the Twins throwing breaking balls for strikes or around the zone is enough to shut them down.

I don't know what the last few years have said, but I remember their being a stretch of 5 years in a row according to Alex Rodriguez where the world series champ was #1 in contact rate. Contact is king in the postseason.

The difference in the Astros and Twins and how well their lineups are built for postseason success to me was shown in a couple examples. Maldonado, who hasn't hit for crap, was battling, fouling off good pitches, on his way to striking out on 9 pitches. The Twins had guys in the heart of the order whiffing at breaking balls and weren't even close. Another is the Astros #6 hitter gets a thigh high fastball and barrels it and it's a homerun. Twins' #6 hitter gets a thigh high fastball and he whiffs. Based on season stats you'd think they are similar hitters, but the difference in pitch recognition and bat to ball skills is massive between Brantley and Jeffers.

The front office and Rocco need to figure this out. I look at the Twins lineup as having a lot of swings that can feast off bad pitching and slug, but when they face good pitching, much of that lineup has little to no shot of doing damage. Julien and Correa put together consistent good at bats this postseason. Royce of course had some great moments but also had some terrible at bats too.

The rest of the offense didn't really look like one you are going to be able to be successful with in the postseason. I'm not saying get rid of everyone else, but they have to add or develop the young guys into at least two more guys that can consistently put together good ABs against really good pitching.

 

[Marcelason78]

The health is really the factor here. If he can get relatively healthy, he's not a .220 hitter with okay but not great power. He's a borderline MVP type player on a incredibly reasonable contract.

Its a moot point, though. He's not going anywhere. Twins aren't going to trade him. If they wanted to trade him, no other team is going to give them enough to make it worth it. If they wanted to trade him and they got a good deal, Buxton has a no trade clause.

The good news is that the Twins are only paying him $15M a year, when he probably could have earned much more and been a much bigger albatross if he can't stay healthy.

I see Pat Reusse’s take is that the Twins might trade Polanco for what he says is their greatest need- a LH starter.

 

[JM4CY]

I'm excited about this. I think Paddack has IT.

I think when we got him he had some Pagan like freezer burn to him. I love what I saw last night. But I think I need to manage expectations.

 

[JM4CY]

I see Pat Reusse’s take is that the Twins might trade Polanco for what he says is their greatest need- a LH starter.

That’d be stupid IMO