From an OrangeBloods respected forum poster:
This is guy has a legit inside big money contacts. One of the very top posters on O'bloods.
I read some of the posts on this, but frankly not all of them. I am going to give my view on what happened to start this, why did UT behave the way it did, and what happened. As a number of people have a hardon for u of h, I will address that too
I. Background: The big 12 lost some teams, doesn't have a conference game, and is not as strong as it once was. Leaving Baylor or tcu out of the playoffs two years ago was painful. Therefore, the question as to if the big12 should "do something" is totally legitimate. Adding teams is a rational way to do something. At worst, you create a conference championship game that is on at the same time as the others, and it sways voters on a key day.
With all that said, it's very unlikely that a team that is not Baylor would be left out with either zero or one losses. Really really hard to leave out OU or UT. Baylor is obviously it's own worst enemy, not only because the school has been exposed as corrupt, but because of an awful out-of-conference schedule. So, here, UT and OU don't have a big problem. Baylor's problem is baylor's problem, not UT or OU.
II. What happened? As far as we can tell, a lot of the noise started in the state of Oklahoma. It's almost like Boren woke up on the wrong side of the bed one day, starting making public statements, and eventually got to Gundy to make some. We all know the substance of his non-economic argument, and he is not wrong. See my second paragraph. The interesting thing is that Boren was making an economic argument that adding teams was accretive. So, the president of OU is saying that if the big 12 adds some teams, every single big 12 member will get millions more.
From everyone in the big 12's perspective (including UT), this is totally out of left field. So, everyone crunches their own numbers, which they have done before, and start calling around to figure out what the hell Boren is talking about. It turns out Boren won't listen to anyone, he doesn't even have any numbers. so people start demanding to see the numbers
It turns out, Boren had dinner with somebody talking about TV deals, and he had too much wine (figuratively). At this dinner, two critical errors were made. First, Boren thought that the pac12 network was worth 10mm a team per year. It turns out it's just a few million per year, as TV is generally saturated at this point, and the whole cable model is melting down. So, he is off by say 7mm on point 1. Second, Boren forgot that he sells OU 3rd tier rights for about 5mm per year (I forgot the exact amount). OU has a quasi local network where it sells its ****** games and basketball and baseball, just like the LHN. So Boren is running around with a memo written on his Commodore 64 saying adding teams is like 10mm a year accretive, when the reality is that adding teams is about 2mm dilutive for OU (math is add pac12channel economics of 3mm, lose tier 3 deal of 5mm, for a net of negative 2). The numbers are actually better for other big 12 members (other than UT) because only ut and OU have significant 3rd tier deals.
So, basically, nobody knows what Boren is talking about. Everyone calls OU's athletic and media department and it turns out that OU's athletic department doesn't know either. But, UT (and bowlsby) have figured out the pac12 deal which was forecast at 10ishmm a couple of years ago is a dud, and it's coming in at 3 mm, but At this point, Boren is so far in front of this, he has Boone and Gundy spooled up, he is planting stories in papers and whatnot.
Bowlsby can't talk any sense into Boren, so OF COURSE the big 12 has to study it. So, the studying stArts. By this time, people have boren's Commodore 64 report, which is immediately ripped to shreds by every single school (but it's all done privately....so you GUYS NEVER HEAR ABOUT IT). Well, Boren thinks everyone is lying to him. So, a couple of regents who are friends with OU regents call them, and provide the real numbers that refute the Commodore 64 report. They haul the AD/lawyers/media experts in and realize Boren is just wrong, and they are ultimately forced to ***** slap him publicly, as he is still tweeting wrong stuff.
At this point, the studying has started, and they do in fact study it. It's a media circus. We have schools In far off states issuing press releases. I have no idea how people expect blwsby to manage this circus.
One major thing that we all "discovered" was that we could ram more teams into the main TV deal according to the contract...and they need to gross up to keep each big 12 team at par. Initially, I guessed that ramming BYU in was something the networks could live with, as they have actual viewers...so the networks were sorta chilling and waiting. But, when the narrative changed to adding awful schools, the networks realized they stood to loose tens of millions (on a NPv basis, probably over 100mm), they threatened to go nuclear and just not pay anything incremental.
So, there ended up being no economic argument for a deal. All of the adds were dilutive. And maybe a new team could have agreed to take a lower amount, but I surmise the numbers just didn't work (I don't actually know)
III. UT's perspective
UT realizes that the conference is not optimal, but there is no serious proposal on the table on how to fix it. Playoffs, expansion of playoffs to 8 teams, LHN, over the top subscribing to TV, cable problems, all make this complicated....today and in 5 years. The grant of rights is a show stopper. UT is just in wait and see mode. Plus, our team sucks, so it's no time to go rocking the boat.
UT is stuck until the GOR is a few years away. I am not sure we care about adding teams in The interim. UT has two rules: 1. Adding a team should be accretive, and it sure as hell cannot be dilutive. 2. If you want us to blow up the LHN, you need to make us whole and more.
UT does not give two ***** about byu or Houston or whatever. Sure, maybe somebody here or there has a hardon because of BYUs weirdo beliefs or wants UofH. But the other teams under consideration were hilarious. From UT's perspective, if we play for 5 years in Cincy or whatever, it doesn't upset anything long term. It just doesn't matter. Pay us and we fly to Cincy, but there is no way we are paying for a 5 way chilimac in Ohio when Texas Chili Parlour is just down the street on Lavaca.
By the way, we have a great relationship with OU. Boren stoked up all this acrimony over UT, but OU's regents effectively apologized via the public ***** slap. Boren is a politician, and will get over it, just like any politician recovers. I know I am supposed to hate OU, but I love having them in the conference, I love playing them. Whatever we do in 5 years, it would be a tragedy if it doesn't include them, and my prediction is that we use our muscle to bring them with us (if it's an academically superior conference). UT and OU are good...zero worries.
IV. Houston
UH was a commuter school with open enrollement, and now it's trying to be big time. Good for them. They have a long way to go. I wish them luck, and frankly the state should give them money to accomplish this. They need to copy UTD and build near elite science, math, engineering and business degrees. They also need more elite alumni to step up and give big gifts. It would be an enormous boost to the city and state to make a competitor school to UT and A&M. Right now, I have my money onUTD, but it's a race UH should have won years ago. The good news is both can be in the winners circle.
I don't see anything special about Houston. I don't see how the governer pressuring UT to let Houston it mattered when all the other schools could obviously block Houston. The networks did not want to pay tens of millions for them, because nobody nationally cares about UofH. Nobody in the big 12 has either fiduciary or moral duty to UH, and there was no leverage to ram them in.
Had adding teams been accretive, then maybe we would have gotten to Houston, but because it wasn't accretive, I am not sure Houston was ever even considered. Nor was south north eastern Florida or whatever that community college in Florida is called.
V. For the record, this is what happens when people lead with their mouth, and don't do their work.
People like to make fun of UT for hiring consultants, lawyers, IMG, but the upside is that we generally show up to a meeting knowing what we are talking about, and people listen carefully to every word we say. We don't issue public statements to embarrass people. Our mouth does not write a check that our ass can't cash.
I think bowlsby has a tough hand, but is doing a fine job. He is very smart and well spoken. Boren simply went bananas. Could you imagine being Ryan right now, with Donald Trump going crazy? What can you actually do other than let it play out? Bowlsby is a professional and took it like a man.
