Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[CoKane]

One year ago the Big 12 was dead. Things change fast.

What's changing right now though? Nobodys value is flying up high enough in the Big 12 right now to be takes for the SEC or BIG soon. The Pac 12 isnt going to pull 50 million more out of their asses than they should get on their next tv deal and the ACC isnt getting their GOR changed because then people can leave

 

[exCyDing]

Bottom 8 teams of the ACC are not the ones you want to hitch your horse to. Below the Big 12 IMO.

Exactly. I’d be surprised if the SEC and Big 10 took all of Clemson, Florida St, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Getting any of those would be a win for the BiG XII, IMO. Pitt and NC State are likely good adds. Duke, GA Tech and Louisville would probably be options as well.

 

[Stormin]

It's not the Big12's goal to end the Pac12. The TV rights marketplace will determine what happens to the Pac12 and Big12 long-term.

This isn't a difficult issue. Both the Big12 and Pac12 TV contracts end by summer 2025. Schools in both conferences have the same goal- maximize revenue per school.

The solution is a Big12/Pac12 consolidation. It's just a matter of whether that includes 12, 14, 16, 18, 20 or 22 schools. There is more money for the top-end schools through consolidation than separate conferences.

The other reality is once the combined school conference reaches 12 schools, the next 2 in each scenario probably isn't significantly dilutive. For example even if WSU & OSU are included in a 22 team conference that might drop per school revenue fron$40M to $37.5M.

The solution is NOT a PAC 12/Big 12 consolidation. Big 12 decides who they want. Absolutely idiotic to merge with PAC 12. Then you are tied to the sinking ship of the PAC 12. Let the ship sink. Scavenge for the remains we want. Let the Mountain West pick up the remnants.

 

[Big Daddy Kang]

siap. gov. newsom apparently not a fan of ucla to b10.

I'm gonna drive and I'm gonna go fast and I'm gonna turn to the left sometimes.

 

[Stormin]

Exactly. I’d be surprised if the SEC and Big 10 took all of Clemson, Florida St, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Getting any of those would be a win for the BiG XII, IMO. Pitt and NC State are likely good adds. Duke, GA Tech and Louisville would probably be options as well.

I wouldn’t be surprised if SEC and B1G add all 5. Conference with Pitt, NC State, Louisville and GaTech is not a football conference anyone would watch. Clemson was a very good team in a terrible conference. ESPN is panicking. FOX totally played them. And Big 12 should actively pursue decent ACC teams. Actively make the Big 12 #3. FOX takes out ACC and then gets the new enlarged Big 12 Conference as the P#3. ESPN ends up with SEC. And the G5 Conferences. Or does ESPN want to join the bidding for the new #3 Conference. Which will have 20-24 teams made up of Big 12 and selected PAC 12 and ACC schools. Big 12 has stumbled into a way for survival.

 

[isucy86]

The solution is NOT a PAC 12/Big 12 consolidation. Big 12 decides who they want. Absolutely idiotic to merge with PAC 12. Then you are tied to the sinking ship of the PAC 12. Let the ship sink. Scavenge for the remains we want. Let the Mountain West pick up the remnants.

That is true if the Pac12 schools are desperate.

But Washington, Oregon, Utah and ASU (or whoever the highest Pac12 rights value schools are) could approach the Big12 with the perspective that there is dead weight in the Big12.

Maybe the highest value Big12 schools are loyal to the new 12. But up to this point, greed has prevailed.

So I think a merger will occur, but the lowest 2, 4 or 6 teams will be excluded from the combined Big12/Pac12.

 

[Al_4_State]

That is relative. I am glad we have those and they are all somewhat decent road trips. When you look at the Big 10 west they dont compare. Every single road trip for Iowa, (or for us) is as close or closer than KU, our closest road trip.

Getting CU back helps a little but it used to be one of our furthest road trips, now we are glad its one of the closest. The loss of Mizzou and Nebby still hurts for road trips.

They’re still the kind of trips where you can leave Friday morning, be in town for happy hour Friday night, and drive home Sunday and be in bed by 8Pm

 

[snowcraig2.0]

All the Big 12 has to do is sick together and it will be the P3. I don't know if that will happen though

 

[WhoISthis]

Three things could force ND into a conference:

1. Falling so far behind financially that they’re not able to compete on the field. Anything less than that and they’re fine with leaving money on the table to stay independent.
2. Losing a place for their non-football sports.
3. Losing access to the playoffs.

The ACC is the real key to getting ND into the Big 10 because it takes away their non-football athletics home and gets us one step closer to an all Big 10/SEC playoff. Not that I think the playoffs will be stated as all-P2, but anyone outside the P2 will have the same level of access as the G5 currently has: go 11-1 and 12-0 and win your conference in successive years and maybe you’ll get the last seed.

I’ve thought ND to a conference would be the last realignment move, but Swarbrick’s comments this spring were rather damming to the ACC if they intend to stay there.

But the SEC can assure nd has a spot in CFP if it means they don’t join BIG, and likely can give them enough money too simply align with sec like they were ACC.

My bigger concern in regards to ND is that instead of moving 6-8 ACC schools to SEC to create a ND friendly non-BIG conference for ND, ESPN instead makes a bi-coastal PAC- ACC conference, which improves ACCN payout, has more football schools, gets ND in most of its desired places and could be a P2.5

 

[2speedy1]

Always thought Lafayette was further than Lawrence and Manhattan.

You are right, back when I originally calculated it. I threw Purdue out of the west as I added them to the East, in a hypothetical scenario that ISU was added to the west, thats why I didnt have them in my calculations. But they are the only one generally farther than Lawrence.

With that Purdue would still be quite a bit closer than most of the Big 12, outside of the Kansas schools.

 

[Stormin]

That is true if the Pac12 schools are desperate.

But Washington, Oregon, Utah and ASU (or whoever the highest Pac12 rights value schools are) could approach the Big12 with the perspective that there is dead weight in the Big12.

Maybe the highest value Big12 schools are loyal to the new 12. But up to this point, greed has prevailed.

So I think a merger will occur, but the lowest 2, 4 or 6 teams will be excluded from the combined Big12/Pac12.

PAC 12 is the league no one wants to be in. Oregon and Washington do not want to be there. USC and UCLA have left.

PAC 12 has Not Won a single Bowl game since 2019. There is a reason why their media rights offers have sucked. PAC 12 calls themselves the Conference of Champions. The PAC 12 perspective is delusional.

 

[CoKane]

Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College. Why would Big 12 teams join up with them? Those are what will be left.

Posted before but the ones I want are VT, Louisville, Pitt, and Miami. I think I'd swap Cuse for Georgia Tech there. Horrendous at both major sports and haven't been good in a long while.

 

[WhoISthis]

Posted before but the ones I want are VT, Louisville, Pitt, and Miami. I think I'd swap Cuse for Georgia Tech there. Horrendous at both major sports and haven't been good in a long while.

VT, Pitt, Louisville, GT, and Miami added to WVU, Cincy, and UCF would make for a nice Big 12 East. If we get 3 of those we'll have done well. I think Miami and VT may be near locks for P2.

The Big 12 being the P3 is best for ISU, but most possible scenarios will have us in the east if they go divisions imo. Hopefully we can force a pod with other R8 schools. Getting Stanford and Cal to BIG would help.

West:
UW, Oregon, Utah, BYU, CU (West pod)
AZ, ASU, TT, TCU, Houston (SW pod)

East:
Baylor, Ok St, KSU, KU, ISU, (central pod)
Cincy, UL, Pitt, WVU, UCF (east pod)

Cuse takes UL's spot if they get a P2 invite.

If Stanford and Cal are in there, CU gets moved to SW pod, and we add Cuse and GT to get to 24 (I think ESPN would roll the ACC Network into the Big 12 network, so Cuse and GT have more value then).

Miami, VT, NC St, are all obvious takes if available, but it seems very unlikely the ACC splits up and they are. In that order imo. If we have Stanford and Cal, which happens first, I think Pitt would be the first cut, say in favor of Miami. If VT is also available, I wonder if we'd would go past 24 given the risk some later leave for P2. I don't see any of the new adds getting kicked out- that's a dangerous path.

 

[kcbob79clone]

UCF to the SEC???

 

[Nolaeer]

Duke and Miami are likely not getting into the SEC or BIG.
small private schools, and if the BIG has UNC it doesnt need Duke. SEC prides itself on large state schools with huge rabid fanbases. Miami, pitt, cuse, bc, and duke have no fans to speak of.

i think VT and nc state are locks for sec. opens up new states and large state schools.

i think UVA and UNC are locks for BIG.

if the sec goes to 20, maybe they add fsu and clemson, but i think theyll lose money to do so.

 

[exCyDing]

I’ve thought ND to a conference would be the last realignment move, but Swarbrick’s comments this spring were rather damming to the ACC if they intend to stay there.

But the SEC can assure nd has a spot in CFP if it means they don’t join BIG, and likely can give them enough money too simply align with sec like they were ACC.

My bigger concern in regards to ND is that instead of moving 6-8 ACC schools to SEC to create a ND friendly non-BIG conference for ND, ESPN instead makes a bi-coastal PAC- ACC conference, which improves ACCN payout, has more football schools, gets ND in most of its desired places and could be a P2.5

I’m not convinced an alliance between the PAC and the ACC (or Big XII) would really change much of anything. If the PAC sticks together, they’ll make $15-$20m less than the Big XII and the ACC. If the Big XII or ACC fully merge with the PAC, their members take a $10m cut. And alliance would be somewhere in between - PAC makes more, but not enough for those with options to stick with the PAC. The ACC is stronger in numbers, but falls behind the Big XII in revenue. Nobody wins except the schools that don’t have other options (WA St, OR St, Cal). I don’t think the PAC teams that could make ACC or Big XII money would stick together for significantly less. I don’t think Big XII or ACC members would vote to dilute their conference payout. I don’t think this solves the ACC’s problem that they’ll be picked over by the Big 10 and SEC in the early 2030s if not sooner.

ND has a long love/hate with the Big 10, but there’s no way in hell they join the SEC no matter who else the SEC takes in. For or better or worse, ND’s commitment to academics matches the Big 10s.

 

[WhoISthis]

I’m not convinced an alliance between the PAC and the ACC (or Big XII) would really change much of anything. If the PAC sticks together, they’ll make $15-$20m less than the Big XII and the ACC. If the Big XII or ACC fully merge with the PAC, their members take a $10m cut. And alliance would be somewhere in between - PAC makes more, but not enough for those with options to stick with the PAC. The ACC is stronger in numbers, but falls behind the Big XII in revenue. Nobody wins except the schools that don’t have other options (WA St, OR St, Cal). I don’t think the PAC teams that could make ACC or Big XII money would stick together for significantly less. I don’t think Big XII or ACC members would vote to dilute their conference payout. I don’t think this solves the ACC’s problem that they’ll be picked over by the Big 10 and SEC in the early 2030s if not sooner.

ND has a long love/hate with the Big 10, but there’s no way in hell they join the SEC no matter who else the SEC takes in. For or better or worse, ND’s commitment to academics matches the Big 10s.

I don't think an alliance does much, but a full out poaching of the PAC by the ACC would.

Imo the real threat is ESPN taking UW, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, and Utah, and adding them as full members of ACC. Although it would be a bait and switch, it would give that conference a legitimate case as the best P3 for the time being. Maybe enough to then pull 5 Big 12 schools, getting to 24.

The 5 remaining PAC and 7 remaining Big 12 would form a conference, adding some Mountain West and AAC

I said aligned with SEC, which they would have no problem doing if the SEC added 7-8 ACC schools. All ND needs from SEC/ESPN is helping them get P2 money and not getting locked out of CFP. SEC would accommodate just to prevent ND going BIG. That is likely what ND is mulling over right now imo.

But even in full membership hypothetical, I've heard that's not necessarily true on ND being "never SEC" due to academics. If the SEC added 7 ACC schools to UT, A&M, Missouri, Vandy, UF its academics are is acceptable to ND. FSU and UGa are climbing, quickly, too. FSU will be AAU and top-25 public school soon due to FL's population and economic growth. The issue with full SEC membership compared to BIG is that SEC would be more prohibitive to making the playoffs for ND.

 

[isucy86]

PAC 12 is the league no one wants to be in. Oregon and Washington do not want to be there. USC and UCLA have left.

PAC 12 has Not Won a single Bowl game since 2019. There is a reason why their media rights offers have sucked. PAC 12 calls themselves the Conference of Champions. The PAC 12 perspective is delusional.

This isn't about a Pac12 or Big12 perspective. This is about the perspective of TV Execs. They will spell out what each school is worth among the 22. Then's its a question how much schools want to compromise obtaining the maximum per school payouts vs. inclusion.

Do the current Big12 or Pac12 conference names have tremendous branding? Both have been around less than a generation.

 

[Stormin]

This isn't about a Pac12 or Big12 perspective. This is about the perspective of TV Execs. They will spell out what each school is worth among the 22. Then's its a question how much schools want to compromise obtaining the maximum per school payouts vs. inclusion.

Do the current Big12 or Pac12 conference names have tremendous branding? Both have been around less than a generation.

We will know soon. Maybe the offer will increase even though USC and UCLA have left.

 

[NWICY]

I think the big 12 should narrow their focus from the four mountain schools and do something like this:

Tell Arizona and Arizona State they have 30 days to accept our offer if they don’t we are going to offer Oregon state & Washington state. The Entire conference is a House of cards… Even defections by their two Least valuable assets could make everything tumble down and bring more schools to the big 12.

Washington State & Oregon State would be stupid not to come if given the opportunity because you tell them if they don’t and others do we’re gonna freeze you out.

That strategy is a little bolder than I prefer. I really would like to add good schools not just schools.