MLB: Trevor Bauer Exonerated?

[Didley]

Can some Jets fan decide to accuse Aaron Rodgers of rape so that the Jets can suspend him without pay? That way the Jets dont have to pay him the money and once his contract is up, the charges can be dropped.

Maybe my issue is that teams shouldnt be allowed to suspend players without pay. They should maybe be able to withhold pay until the outcome is determined. And if guilty they keep the money. If innocent, then they owe them all backpay

 

[FriendlySpartan]

MLB also certainly has much more detail than we have just listening to one side of the story for one accuser. A lot of people oddly eager to jump back on a weird, weird bandwagon here. The Dodger clubhouse jumped at the opportunity to not have to deal with this guy again.

I don’t know for sure how much detail MLB has. Remember the Ray Rice stuff? NFL claimed they did a through investigation and then immediately TMZ dropped a ton of footage and reports that the NFL claimed they never saw.

After watching Michigans background check firm fail completely earlier this year im not convinced any of these groups have more information then what is presented.

 

[Drew0311]

Why did an insurance company pay the girl 300k. Guess I didn’t see why she deserved to get any money from anyone

 

[ClonesFTW]

Trevor Bauer is a d-bag but he certainly got ****** in this situation; that woman deserves serious jail time.

 

[WooBadger18]

If they came forward with near identical accounts as the initial claim, yes,,, one can easily be more skeptical of their claims

Edit: why wouldn't anyone be more skeptical? Again, not saying their claims are also false, but if they all had a similar story to an initial case that turned out to be false, why wouldn't people stop and ask themselves if the other cases have validity or not?

Well, I guess first, which is it? Nearly identical or similar? Because those are two different things. But even if you have “near identical claims,” what’s the claim? Because a lot of sexual assaults are probably going to have a similar fact pattern.

Plus, the chance that all of the women are lying is low. Brown University says that rates of false accusations are low and about in line with other crimes (2%-10%). We’ll use 10% because you’re skeptical. The probability that all of the other women are lying is .1% So I don’t think it’s really logical or productive to say “I should be more skeptical of those other claims” because the chances that those other women are making it up is low.

To be clear, I understand why someone would be more skeptical. I just don’t think they should be more skeptical

 

[carvers4math]

Well, I guess first, which is it? Nearly identical or similar? Because those are two different things. But even if you have “near identical claims,” what’s the claim? Because a lot of sexual assaults are probably going to have a similar fact pattern.

Plus, the chance that all of the women are lying is low. Brown University says that rates of false accusations are low and about in line with other crimes (2%-10%). We’ll use 10% because you’re skeptical. The probability that all of the other women are lying is .1% So I don’t think it’s really logical or productive to say “I should be more skeptical of those other claims” because the chances that those other women are making it up is low.

To be clear, I understand why someone would be more skeptical. I just don’t think they should be more skeptical

Not only are false accusations low but unreported sexual assaults are very high.

 

[Cyhig]

Well, I guess first, which is it? Nearly identical or similar? Because those are two different things. But even if you have “near identical claims,” what’s the claim? Because a lot of sexual assaults are probably going to have a similar fact pattern.

Plus, the chance that all of the women are lying is low. Brown University says that rates of false accusations are low and about in line with other crimes (2%-10%). We’ll use 10% because you’re skeptical. The probability that all of the other women are lying is .1% So I don’t think it’s really logical or productive to say “I should be more skeptical of those other claims” because the chances that those other women are making it up is low.

To be clear, I understand why someone would be more skeptical. I just don’t think they should be more skeptical

Not every single instance is "identical". Usually a serial criminalist will have similar traits from one crime to another, but each crime is different in some regard. So, if these similar traits are accused from one potential crime to others, but the first crime was found to be fictitious, one has to at least question the validity of the other crimes.

Again, nobody here is saying he is innocent or guilty in any of the other cases.

Edit: conversely, if he was found guilty, one would then think the accusations from the other people would have merit

 

[Drew0311]

Well, I guess first, which is it? Nearly identical or similar? Because those are two different things. But even if you have “near identical claims,” what’s the claim? Because a lot of sexual assaults are probably going to have a similar fact pattern.

Plus, the chance that all of the women are lying is low. Brown University says that rates of false accusations are low and about in line with other crimes (2%-10%). We’ll use 10% because you’re skeptical. The probability that all of the other women are lying is .1% So I don’t think it’s really logical or productive to say “I should be more skeptical of those other claims” because the chances that those other women are making it up is low.

To be clear, I understand why someone would be more skeptical. I just don’t think they should be more skeptical

I would be curious to see the results of these claims being false compared to the money that could get paid out. Seems to me that the false claims toward rich and famous people would be a lot higher than false claims toward people with no pot to piss In.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Why is it that just the best, most standup guys you know all get accused of sexual assault? Totally unfair.

 

[Clonefan32]

I would be curious to see the results of these claims being false compared to the money that could get paid out. Seems to me that the false claims toward rich and famous people would be a lot higher than false claims toward people with no pot to piss In.

Michael Irvin is another example of this. I don't mean this, in any way, to minimize the severity or incidence of sexual assaults. But I don't think there's any doubting there are people out there who view false claims as a way to make money and that their actions should be punishable by law and are extremely harmful to victims of actual assault.

 

[Drew0311]

Michael Irvin is another example of this. I don't mean this, in any way, to minimize the severity or incidence of sexual assaults. But I don't think there's any doubting there are people out there who view false claims as a way to make money and that their actions should be punishable by law and are extremely harmful to victims of actual assault.

Yeah that one was bad. Luckily they had video camera's showing the whole incident. I hate that we can't even discuss this without giving a disclaimer. Obviously you are not trying to minimize the incident.

 

[Bigman38]

Why is everyone sure she is lying? Honest question, I haven't followed this at all since it happened until today, and from what I've seen they both just agreed to drop their lawsuits against each other.

 

[Drew0311]

Why is everyone sure she is lying? Honest question, I haven't followed this at all since it happened until today, and from what I've seen they both just agreed to drop their lawsuits against each other.

The text messages she sent to her friends and stuff show she was trying to get money. She was taking videos the morning after the encounter showing her laying in bed smiling with Bauer sleeping. If you read the text messages between her and her friends, she basically plotted the whole thing.

 

[amishclone]

The reporter from the Athletic who reported a skull fracture while possessing medical records showing that was false should also face jail time

 

[BillyClone]

Well, I guess first, which is it? Nearly identical or similar? Because those are two different things. But even if you have “near identical claims,” what’s the claim? Because a lot of sexual assaults are probably going to have a similar fact pattern.

Plus, the chance that all of the women are lying is low. Brown University says that rates of false accusations are low and about in line with other crimes (2%-10%). We’ll use 10% because you’re skeptical. The probability that all of the other women are lying is .1% So I don’t think it’s really logical or productive to say “I should be more skeptical of those other claims” because the chances that those other women are making it up is low.

To be clear, I understand why someone would be more skeptical. I just don’t think they should be more skeptical

I don't think you are correct with your statement of "The probability that all of the other women are lying is .1%".

This is a prior probability/Bayes Theorem situation.

If we didn't know that the first woman lied, then, yes, we could calculate that the probability of all three women lying is 10% x 10% x 10% = 0.1% (this assumes that each woman's probability is independent of the others).

But we have new information - the first woman lied (at least, that's how things look). So the new question is:

Given that the first woman lied, what is the probability that all the other women lied?​

The Bayes Theorem states

P(A | B) = P(A) × P(B | A) / P(B)

where:
P(A | B)= the conditional probability of all women lying given the first woman lied
P(A) = the prior probability of all women lying (0.1%)
P(B | A) = the conditional probability that the first woman lied given that all the women lied
P(B) = the probability that the first woman lied (10%)

We don't really know P(B | A) but we could guesstimate. Maybe Bauer just attracts women who tend to lie in order to get money? We could set it at 90%.

The calculation would then be:

P(A | B) = 0.1% x 90% / 10% = 0.9%

Now you can go 2 ways with this result.

One way is that 0.9% is still a pretty small probability that all women are lying.

The other way is that the fact that the first woman lied means that it's now 9 times more likely that all of the other women are lying.

I'm just a lowly mathematician. Feel free to critique my work.

 

[Drew0311]

I don't think you are correct with your statement of "The probability that all of the other women are lying is .1%".

This is a prior probability/Bayes Theorem situation.

If we didn't know that the first woman lied, then, yes, we could calculate that the probability of all three women lying is 10% x 10% x 10% = 0.1% (this assumes that each woman's probability is independent of the others).

But we have new information - the first woman lied (at least, that's how things look). So the new question is:

Given that the first woman lied, what is the probability that all the other women lied?​

The Bayes Theorem states

P(A | B) = P(A) × P(B | A) / P(B)

where:
P(A | B)= the conditional probability of all women lying given the first woman lied
P(A) = the prior probability of all women lying (0.1%)
P(B | A) = the conditional probability that the first woman lied given that all the women lied
P(B) = the probability that the first woman lied (10%)

We don't really know P(B | A) but we could guesstimate. Maybe Bauer just attracts women who tend to lie in order to get money? We could set it at 90%.

The calculation would then be:

P(A | B) = 0.1% x 90% / 10% = 0.9%

Now you can go 2 ways with this result.

One way is that 0.9% is still a pretty small probability that all women are lying.

The other way is that the fact that the first woman lied means that it's now 9 times more likely that all of the other women are lying.

I'm just a lowly mathematician. Feel free to critique my work.

I was gonna say the same thing

 

[ISUCubswin]

Why is it that just the best, most standup guys you know all get accused of sexual assault? Totally unfair.

Even if he's a total, complete *******, which by many accounts, he is, that doesn't make what happened acceptable.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Even if he's a total, complete *******, which by many accounts, he is, that doesn't make what happened acceptable.

But it sure as **** makes it more likely.

 

[ISUCubswin]

I'm confused why some people believe Bauer can't sue the MLB. Kaepernick sued the NFL for being blackballed and made money off of it. Bauer was suspended for 2 years and will more than likely never play in the league again and was by every measure much better at his profession than Kaepernick.

 

[Bigman38]

The text messages she sent to her friends and stuff show she was trying to get money. She was taking videos the morning after the encounter showing her laying in bed smiling with Bauer sleeping. If you read the text messages between her and her friends, she basically plotted the whole thing.

Thanks, I looked those up. I don't see anything that points to her planning a scheme to beat herself up for a lawsuit. But easy to see how the court looked at it and decided to drop it as it's just a he said/she said.