Where Will ISU End Up if the Big 12 Implodes?

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I went over to the Ohio State forum. Both Baylor and OkieSt (there is only one OSU on that forum) were mentioned possibilities for expansion. Baylor is seen as a good basketball school and based in Texas with great recruiting. TCU was also mentioned in regards to the Texas recruiting and good football program. I never saw any mention of Texas Tech or Kansas State as expansion possibilities.

No way in hell the Big 10 takes a small religious school like Baylor with its scandal history no matter how good their bb teams are. I have thought all along, the two school positioned worst for a breakup of the conference are Baylor and WV.

Okie State would be an interesting choice, but they are NOT an AAU school, the Big 10 has always maintain that was a deal breaker, not sure why that would change now, but who knows.

TCU is an interesting school, small religious school, but not crazy like Baylor about it. Located in the Metroplex, would be good for recruiting. Decent football history and and up and comer in BB. But a very small fan base, and with cord cutting how many TCU fans are going to pay to stream their games?

 

[CyCrazy]

Wendy will look out for K-State too - that's her school.

She will not go out of her way to save them if it meant tying us to KSU. Get real.

 

[Tornado man]

"The B1G is a little about sports and mostly about shared research and shared funds. The schools in the SEC do not measure up when it comes to the massive budgets of Midwestern land grant institutions. Most schools in the SEC couldn’t get into the B1G if they wanted to because they don’t offer as much in this arena. The B1G academic alliance is the main reason for the BIG existence, sports are secondary. Most people don’t seem to get that. While OSU is the big dog for football in the conference, they gain a lot from sharing research with Northwestern, TSUN, and other elite Midwestern universities."

Well, I assume the Big 10 would take SEC Florida though - in that they're a much higher-ranked public university than Ohio State.

 

[Cloneon]

Interesting. I'm not a premium member, but I did manage to get a comment in just after CW's most recent report. Funny though. I can't find or edit that comment unless I change to premium. I'm not complaining, I'm simply pointing out Wordpress has a bug in their comment / membership logic.

 

[Gonzo]

No way in hell the Big 10 takes a small religious school like Baylor with its scandal history no matter how good their bb teams are. I have thought all along, the two school positioned worst for a breakup of the conference are Baylor and WV.

Okie State would be an interesting choice, but they are NOT an AAU school, the Big 10 has always maintain that was a deal breaker, not sure why that would change now, but who knows.

TCU is an interesting school, small religious school, but not crazy like Baylor about it. Located in the Metroplex, would be good for recruiting. Decent football history and and up and comer in BB. But a very small fan base, and with cord cutting how many TCU fans are going to pay to stream their games?

This has always been the case but with the way things are shifting, I wouldn't be shocked if this wasn't a deal breaker any more. Nebby hasn't been an AAU school for a decade now and they haven't been shown the door by the B1G. I think ISU could still be positioned ok for a B1G invite, but I'd be a little worried about Okie St. I'd bet they'd jump at a B1G invite over a Pac invite every day of the week.

 

[clonedude]

Thinking about the best case scenario within the worst case scenario (that ISU doesn't latch on elsewhere).

Say all 8 teams stick together as no other league expands. The most valuable addition options are probably BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF. Say that we get all of them (BYU would not be sure thing to join this league).

Iowa State would be in a Big 12 East with TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and West Virginia, with a protected crossover rivalry against K-State. The West Division includes Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, K-State, and BYU. Other than K-State, we'd play 3 of those 5 teams every year in football.

I wonder how much money that league is worth. It is not a great league by any means. But it is hard to see a much better outcome available if the B1G, Pac-12, and ACC are all off the table.

It is imperative that JP and WW get this university into one of those three conferences.

That sounds horrible to me. Not interested at all in adding any of the teams you mentioned. I understand those are probably the best we could get.... but they don't do anything for me whatsoever. Would MUCH rather play teams from the PAC 12.

 

[Hestia_Abnegation11]

Anyone else thinking that tomorrow will be a big day? I'm not sure why but it feels like this is the calm before the storm - i.e maybe TX/OU gives notice of formally leaving, more rumors about B1G, PAC, etc. The weekend has seemed quite a bit calmer than Thurs./Fri., and I think it could pick back up on a Monday. Maybe we'll hear a statement (even if vague) from ISU and a few other schools that haven't said much.

 

[awd4cy]

I’m really starting to believe we make it in the Pac 12 with KSU, OSU, and Tech. Not ideal, but I will accept that and it could still at least be interesting.

Edit: Forgot about KU. Think they do as well. Then add 1 more to get to 18. 2 nine team divisions. Play everyone in division once and 1-2 out of division.

 

[Rods79]

The offer I spoke of is reportedly on the table. It'd be short sighted to think they just tossed a number out there. The number, very likely, was arrived at to 'entice' TX and OK into rethinking their position. 1.5 times is a significant boost. SO, I think your 99% may be a bit exaggerated. I'm thinking 60-75% which are both probabilities to start strategizing around. In absence of any plan, the B12 is relegated to the same thing happening if not prepared.

Money both is and isn’t the issue with that deal. Big 12 was a ceiling for them, where the SEC has much greater potential. The Big 12’s money distribution was down for 2 years and the networks didn’t want to renegotiate early (which may or may not have been because of the OU/TX deal months ago). Not to mention the unequal revenue model would destabilize the rest of the teams in the Big 12 making that new “home” likely to fall down in the near future as it takes another huge hit to the conference brand.

Exploring the Big 12/SEC Timeline: Here's How Oklahoma and Texas Got Here

Since last December, after watching unfavorable events unfold around them, the Sooners and Longhorns have teamed up, got proactive — and will move to the SEC.

www.si.com

Amount of money per team in 2019:
B1G - $55.6 million.
SEC - $45.3 million
Big 12 - Base of $34.5 million, but varied from $38.2 million - $42 million (b/c of Third Tier rights)
ACC - Varied from $27.6 million to $34 million
PAC - $32.2 million, but was lower than that because of the expenses each team had for the PAC Network failure.

So at 1.5, that puts their share at (pre-negotiations) at $63 million and everyone else at $36 million…not going to cut it when you’ve got new deals coming through in other conferences that will surely make up that $8 million gap pretty fast and create an absolute chasm with the other member schools. Now who knows what renegotiation would have gotten us, but trending down it seems likely we wouldn’t be landing a huge deal…so 1.5 of what, actually? Also, it is clear ESPN only wanted to pay OU/TX (they pumped up those brands and destroyed the rest for years) so why not just make a deal with them to switch conferences and take away all our money to give to their other inventory that they’ve spent years cultivating? Why do they need to pay us for OU/TX when they could just pay them and their preferred brands more?

 

[Turn2]

I’m really starting to believe we make it in the Pac 12 with KSU, OSU, and Tech. Not ideal, but I will accept that and it could still at least be interesting.

Edit: Forgot about KU. Think they do as well. Then add 1 more to get to 18. 2 nine team divisions. Play everyone in division once and 1-2 out of division.

Can’t happen.

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[MeanDean]

Can’t happen.

California bans state-funded travel to five new states over anti-LGBTQ laws

California will ban state-funded travel to five new states over their “discriminatory” LGBTQ laws, state Attorney General Rob Bonta announced Monday, citing the importance of “ali…

www.mercurynews.com

This was already mentioned elsewhere. The funds from athletics earnings are not considered to be from State of CA coffers. So does not apply in this case.

 

[Turn2]

This was already mentioned elsewhere. The funds from athletics earnings are not considered to be from State of CA coffers. So does not apply in this case.

Joining a Conference takes it to a whole new level. PAC 10/12 + x will not happen with any Big XII teams.

 

[Arch484]

Many choices, some good, some disastrous.

The only school the BIG would take from the Big 12 is KU

 

[AuH2O]

Money both is and isn’t the issue with that deal. Big 12 was a ceiling for them, where the SEC has much greater potential. The Big 12’s money distribution was down for 2 years and the networks didn’t want to renegotiate early (which may or may not have been because of the OU/TX deal months ago). Not to mention the unequal revenue model would destabilize the rest of the teams in the Big 12 making that new “home” likely to fall down in the near future as it takes another huge hit to the conference brand.

Exploring the Big 12/SEC Timeline: Here's How Oklahoma and Texas Got Here

Since last December, after watching unfavorable events unfold around them, the Sooners and Longhorns have teamed up, got proactive — and will move to the SEC.

www.si.com

Amount of money per team in 2019:
B1G - $55.6 million.
SEC - $45.3 million
Big 12 - Base of $34.5 million, but varied from $38.2 million - $42 million (b/c of Third Tier rights)
ACC - Varied from $27.6 million to $34 million
PAC - $32.2 million, but was lower than that because of the expenses each team had for the PAC Network failure.

So at 1.5, that puts their share at (pre-negotiations) at $63 million and everyone else at $36 million…not going to cut it when you’ve got new deals coming through in other conferences that will surely make up that $8 million gap pretty fast and create an absolute chasm with the other member schools. Now who knows what renegotiation would have gotten us, but trending down it seems likely we wouldn’t be landing a huge deal…so 1.5 of what, actually? Also, it is clear ESPN only wanted to pay OU/TX (they pumped up those brands and destroyed the rest for years) so why not just make a deal with them to switch conferences and take away all our money to give to their other inventory that they’ve spent years cultivating? Why do they need to pay us for OU/TX when they could just pay them and their preferred brands more?

So dumb question, but do we know the SEC contract this time around is going to be bigger? Ratings tanked last year, and even prior to COVID attendance and ratings had been trending the wrong way.

 

[cyclonemagic]

I reviewed a few other B12 fanbase forums to see how they view the TX and OU move to the SEC. I also live in Texas and talk to many different friends and co-workers that went to those schools. Here is a summary of my findings:

Baylor: Very concerned there is not a P5 landing spot for them, even though they have many new facilities, a good football program, and a great basketball program with a coach who wants to stay at Baylor. A new basketball arena may need to be put on hold. There is a new development on the Brazos river that may need to be put on hold also (this was similar to the planned development near Jack Trice and Hilton).

Kansas: Not worried at all. They should land in the B10, Pac 12, or even ACC due to their basketball program, recent strong football coach hire, and academics / AAU affiliation. Would need to improve the football stadium and non-basketball facilities if there is a move to another conference, especially B10.

Kansas State: Pac 12 is a possibility. Fans are concerned that there may not be a P5 landing spot. Acknowledge that they are not tied to Kansas in conference alignment. Wish this round of realignment had occurred while Synder was enjoying coaching success.

OSU: Pac 12 most realistic option. Opened up a discussion with Big Ten. Could possibly move with OU to SEC if TX goes to the Big Ten. Fans acknowledge that they are not tied to OU for conference alignment. David Boren pushed for both schools as a package in alignment in the previous times, but he is not OU Chancellor anymore. OSU believes it offers great facilities and programs, but no longer has T Boone Pickens to depend on. OSU also has a rich athletic history with national championships in many sports (believe they're in the top 5 of all schools).

TCU: Concerned there is not a P5 landing spot for them, even though they have a new stadium/facilities and a great football program thanks to Gary Patterson. They believe they offer Texas recruiting (especially Dallas / Ft. Worth). TCU downgraded conferences after the SW Conference break-up and hasn't forgotten the conference purgatory they were in until they joined the Big 12. They would have been in the Big East if the Big 12 had not picked them up.

Texas Tech: Tech fans believe they are headed for the Pac 12. They would bring a larger Texas school and Texas recruiting to the Pac 12. There are remote possibilities for Big 10 and ACC. All Tech fans remind me that they are a top 25 valued school. The biggest concern is the ineptitude of the Tech Athletic Dept. over the past 10 years. The last 5 years have been garbage football (below .500), so bad timing for conference realignment.

West Virginia: ACC is the best route. Big Ten and even SEC is a remote possibility. ACC and SEC have never wanted WV in their conferences in the past so there is concern that this still holds true. Academics and a small population state are also a concern. Others believe that their facilities upgrades are on par with the ACC. WV is a top 25 brand that we add value to the ACC TV contract.

 

[Rods79]

So dumb question, but do we know the SEC contract this time around is going to be bigger? Ratings tanked last year, and even prior to COVID attendance and ratings had been trending the wrong way.

It already was:

Analysis: New ESPN/ABC TV deal will give SEC even more resources to dominate college sports

Southeastern Conference football games will air exclusively on ABC and ESPN starting in 2024. The deal will only add to the conference's revenue gap.

www.usatoday.com

Now that they don’t have to pay the rest of us, there’s a pretty good chance that money is going to go their way.

The ACC got a crazy deal from ESPN to 2036 which is hitting paydirt (funny the source for this is ESPN…more pumping their brand):

ACC sees record revenue distribution in 2019-20

The ACC distributed a record $497.2 million for the 2019-20 financial year, the highest gross revenue ever reported for the league, according to tax documents released Friday.

www.espn.com

So it’s pretty clear to me ESPN cares about the SEC and the ACC, while Fox deals with the B1G and the PAC. If B1G/PAC strike an exclusive Fox deal, ESPN will have even more money to pump into the SEC/ACC. Fox will need those conferences up to 16 for content though now that SEC is there with two heavy hitters.

 

[cyclonemagic]

It already was:

Analysis: New ESPN/ABC TV deal will give SEC even more resources to dominate college sports

Southeastern Conference football games will air exclusively on ABC and ESPN starting in 2024. The deal will only add to the conference's revenue gap.

www.usatoday.com

Now that they don’t have to pay the rest of us, there’s a pretty good chance that money is going to go their way.

The ACC got a crazy deal from ESPN to 2036 which is hitting paydirt (funny the source for this is ESPN…more pumping their brand):

ACC sees record revenue distribution in 2019-20

The ACC distributed a record $497.2 million for the 2019-20 financial year, the highest gross revenue ever reported for the league, according to tax documents released Friday.

www.espn.com

So it’s pretty clear to me ESPN cares about the SEC and the ACC, while Fox deals with the B1G and the PAC. If B1G/PAC strike an exclusive Fox deal, ESPN will have even more money to pump into the SEC/ACC. Fox will need those conferences up to 16 for content though now that SEC is there with two heavy hitters.

I am wondering if the conferences can re-negotiate their current TV contracts to accommodate the pending realignments (?).

I also saw an article where the Big 12 would propose to give TX and OU more funds (say 10% more) while the other schools accept a smaller cut (say 10% less). This would be done to keep TX and OU in the Big 12. This may work for the remainder of the contract. But, TX and OU will ultimately leave after that IMHO.

 

[Gonzo]

It already was:

Analysis: New ESPN/ABC TV deal will give SEC even more resources to dominate college sports

Southeastern Conference football games will air exclusively on ABC and ESPN starting in 2024. The deal will only add to the conference's revenue gap.

www.usatoday.com

Now that they don’t have to pay the rest of us, there’s a pretty good chance that money is going to go their way.

The ACC got a crazy deal from ESPN to 2036 which is hitting paydirt (funny the source for this is ESPN…more pumping their brand):

ACC sees record revenue distribution in 2019-20

The ACC distributed a record $497.2 million for the 2019-20 financial year, the highest gross revenue ever reported for the league, according to tax documents released Friday.

www.espn.com

So it’s pretty clear to me ESPN cares about the SEC and the ACC, while Fox deals with the B1G and the PAC. If B1G/PAC strike an exclusive Fox deal, ESPN will have even more money to pump into the SEC/ACC. Fox will need those conferences up to 16 for content though now that SEC is there with two heavy hitters.

ACC schools still way behind B1G, SEC payouts even with that record deal.

 

[Rods79]

I am wondering if the conferences can re-negotiate their current TV contracts to accommodate the pending realignments (?).

I also saw an article where the Big 12 would propose to give TX and OU more funds (say 10% more) while the other schools accept a smaller cut (say 10% less). This would be done to keep TX and OU in the Big 12. This may work for the remainder of the contract. But, TX and OU will ultimately leave after that IMHO.

I haven’t read the contracts, but I’m sure there is some rider or clause in there that extra teams will mean extra dollars or a renegotiation period. These don’t go into effect for 3-4 years yet. So there is time.

As for that (terrible) idea, I kind of dissected that in the post above (#929)

Where Will ISU End Up if the Big 12 Implodes?

I went over to the Ohio State forum. Both Baylor and OkieSt (there is only one OSU on that forum) were mentioned possibilities for expansion. Baylor is seen as a good basketball school and based in Texas with great recruiting. TCU was also mentioned in regards to the Texas recruiting and good...

cyclonefanatic.com

 

[Rods79]

ACC schools still way behind B1G, SEC payouts even with that record deal.

Ok…I think the point is that ESPN has them locked up tight through 2036…so they’re ride or die with them.

I found this general layout interesting. 2024 especially. ESPN is likely going to need to shell out more to keep the rights to the college playoffs, and even more with expansion likely. One would think they’re planning on shifting funds from the B1G/Big 12/PAC to prepare for that. It all makes sense with what they’ve been touting on the air for years against more teams in the playoff (until last year really). I know the sentiment with B1G/Big 12/PAC teams have moved mostly anti-ESPN with the way they’ve treated them on-air.

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