Weather Thread 1/30-2/2: Possible Major Storm

[wxman1]

I'm not completely buying the lower totals yet...

 

[erikbj]

I am hoping for 20 inches.

 

[CYEATHAWK]

If all elements phase(artic air, gulf moisture, northern steam disturbance, southern stream low)......could this be the midwest version of the "perfect storm"?

 

[statsaholic]

I am in Harrison County (north of Omaha) and we have had some significant freezing rain since about 7 am. I drove down I-29 55 miles between 7 and 8, and then the Interstate was a tad greasy, but side state roads (141 and 127 both) were a bit dicier. Local Schools here are closing at 11 to 12. The temperature an hour ago was 24 F. I heard that central Iowa wasnt getting much yet about an hour ago.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Indianola has had a bit of freezing drizzle followed just enough light snow to cover the ground. Sounds like roads around are getting a bit slick.

 

[gocubs2118]

Chicago is supposed to get 18 inches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

[cyfanatic]

Here is a weather cam from the Des Moines area...is it really this bad in Des Moines? I have never seen ice on the camera before:

http://images.ibsys.com/des/images/weather/auto/towercam4_640x480.jpg?3179000656

 

[clones26]

I am hoping for 20 inches.

thats what she said

Chicago is supposed to get 18 inches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

How did you know your girl has me call her Chicago



Sorry, Couldnt stop myself

 

[Wesley]

Good job on the map and it seems to go with with the 10-16 total inches that the NWS is saying for those in the Winter Storm Watch.

Of note, The local mets all seem to be down playing the total storm amounts. Channel 13 via KXNO is saying 8-9 total inches and Channel 5 on their website is saying 7-11 inches and Jason Parkin on his independent website is going with 7-11 inches for the metro..

That seems to be common.:v_SPIN: How many times do locals say 2-4 and it goes 6-8 inches?

 

[chuckd4735]

I'm going to go ahead and predict somewhere between 3 and 18 inches, with winds picking up from a certain direction anywhere from 5 to 50 MPH.

 

[Wesley]

If all elements phase(artic air, gulf moisture, northern steam disturbance, southern stream low)......could this be the midwest version of the "perfect storm"?

It has IC(e) written all over it. Herkey better start shoveling.

 

[garn91]

Updated AFD from DSM. Not sure if this is just a reash of the early morning AFD. Looks like the Winter Storm Watch now extends clear up to the Waterloo area, yesterday, Des Moines was as far north as the watch went.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1[/url]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1041 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM SET TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL US. INTENSE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM
DEEPENS QUICKLY. SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY
EVENING. ATMOSHPERE BECOME WEAKLY STRATIFIED IN THE MID LEVELS BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. SNOWFALL RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 2 OR 3
INCHES PER HOUR BY BLOOMFIELD/OTTUMWA. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WILL BE
COMPACT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1050MB
HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE SOUNDING IN SOUTHEAST IA
HAD 61KTS AT ABOUT 4KFT ON OTM SOUNDING AT 00Z WED BUT LOWER POTION
OF THE SOUNDING WAS NOT ADIABATIC WHICH WILL MAKE IT HARDER FOR
HIGHER WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND. NONE-THE-LESS... SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE NEAR BLIZZARD TO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CWA
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM
RAPIDLY DEPARTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BUT SUBSIDENCE AND ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD HAVE THE SUN TAKING OVER IN
MOST LOCATION BY MIDDAY.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND MODIFIED IN TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR BEST THREAT AREA AND TO NARROW IN ON TIMING OF
GREATEST THREAT. TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE STORM SHOULD RANGE FROM
ABOUT 6 INCHES ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE WATCH TO 12 TO 16 INCHES
NEAR BLOOMFIELD AND OTM. THIS WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS AND
CRIPPLING STORM GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND WINDS WITH TRAVEL
BECOMING DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE EAST OF A TAMA-DES
MOINES-BEDFORD LINE. DRIFTS WILL BE SEVERAL FEET DEEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. IF
WINDS SHOW ANY TENDENCY TO BE HIGHER WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...A
BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED.

 

[EddieISU]

I am hoping for 20 inches.

I'm taking the over, hoping for 20+.

 

[Wesley]

Freezing rain in Omaha for the past hour or so too.

Six crashes on I-80 and three other major roads blocked for wrecks.

 

[1100011CS]

Ugh, I'm supposed to drive to Iowa City tomorrow and Wed. Might end up getting stuck in that crap hole.

 

[garn91]

DSM NWS just issued updated statements on the Winter Storm Watch, no changes were made. 8-14 inches expected from Ames north; 10-16 inches from Des Moines south.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

 

[vortex]

Ugh, I'm supposed to drive to Iowa ****** tomorrow and Wed. Might end up getting stuck in that crap hole.

Definition of ironic. Somone from Marshalltown calling another town in Iowa a crap hole.

 

[FDWxMan]

DSM NWS just issued updated statements on the Winter Storm Watch, no changes were made. 8-14 inches expected from Ames north; 10-16 inches from Des Moines south.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

The NWS likely won't change anything in those until the 4pm updates.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Any gurus that can give me an update on Cedar Rapids?

 

[alarson]

Any gurus that can give me an update on Cedar Rapids?

Conditions will be cold and icy if you forget the kid at school again. :spinny: