After much thought, my best-case, realistic realignment scenario.

[t-noah]

PAC-12 goes with safety in #'s and adds remaining Big members (minus West Va) + BYU to form the PAC-20

They do 5, 4-team PODS that look something like this:
Oregon, Oregon St, Wash, Wash St
USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford
CU, BYU, Utah, & Kansas
Texas Tech, TCU, Arizona, ASU
Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Okie St

You'd have to get a FOX Sports TV deal and all sign an astronomically long (20+ years) and penalty filled Grant of Rights to build trust and stability.

Then, your FB schedule looks something like: Play everyone in your pod (3 games) Play 2 other pods (8 games) every other year Play 1 FCS game. Iowa games goes away. It sucks but we need long-term stability more than that game. The scheduling is workable. Maybe you play 1.5 pods every year so you play 9 conferences games. Whatever.

11 conference games is a lot but it makes scheduling easier and creates unity and a unique brand. "We're going to play each other." Embrace PAC-20 after dark and get auto bid plus 1 at-large every year into 12 team playoff. Avoid irrelevancy.

Championship game in Vegas.

Don't mind you starting another thread. Happy (sort of) to read it. But it's been a tough week and am getting a bit tired of it all.

NFL jr is suicide. If they do that, college sports in general are dead as we know it. I don't think that will happen.

Who is going to step in to stop it? That is what worries me. Literally think Government will need to intervene at some point or else it is headed that direction.

The only ones probably going to stop it would be the blueblood schools believing they'd be killing the golden goose. However, I think they are out of touch enough, as is ESPN, that they simply think fans of the other teams relegated to a lower division will just pick a horse in the blueblood league, because it would absolutely require that for such a league to not completely tank.

I would never support college nfl lite. Would still follow ISU but we'd be out of big time college football. Half of the country would agree with me (not supporting big college football anymore).

of course they are. (Fox)

ONLY IF YOU'RE FORCED TO MAKE A DECISION TODAY. My all caps is sarcasm indicating it's not the end of the world. In fact, this could be an opportunity that otherwise wouldn't have arisen. It's all a matter of perspective. And EVERY SINGLE move going forward is a strategic move for realignment for EVERY P5 and G5 team which has to be reassessed and restrategized at each turn.

Thanks for the pep talk guys. I'm glad you are around. Maybe college football will be salvaged. If it is, it will take time.

 

[clonedude]

My ideal new conference. B12 2.0
Northeast: ISU, KU, KsU, Cincinnati, WVU, Navy.
Southwest: OSU, Tech, TCU, Airforce, BYU Houston.

No offense at all, but I'm just tired of seeing people bring up all these possibilities that have no chance of keeping ISU football viable whatsoever.

We either get an invite to the B1G, or we join some kind of Big 12 PAC 12 merger.... those are basically the ONLY two options for the survival of ISU football folks.

Yes, it's VERY depressing to think about, but it's the cold hard truth.

I would NEVER advocate any kind of violence whatsoever, but the position that OU and TX have put their fans and players in for the next several years is going to be absolutely horrible for them. They are going to be treated really badly. The bad thing is, it's not their fault at all (it's the presidents and AD's), but their fans and players will take the brunt of this.

 

[Rural]

No offense at all, but I'm just tired of seeing people bring up all these possibilities that have no chance of keeping ISU football viable whatsoever.

We either get an invite to the B1G, or we join some kind of Big 12 PAC 12 merger.... those are basically the ONLY two options for the survival of ISU football folks.

Yes, it's VERY depressing to think about, but it's the cold hard truth.

I would NEVER advocate any kind of violence whatsoever, but the position that OU and TX have put their fans and players in for the next several years is going to be absolutely horrible for them. They are going to be treated really badly. The bad thing is, it's not their fault at all (it's the presidents and AD's), but their fans and players will take the brunt of this.

They're not planning to be here next year.

 

[Clonehomer]

They're not planning to be here next year.

Once they make those intentions known officially, it'll be interesting how that goes. There's a lot more than just the Big12 that would be against setting a precedence of breaking a GOR. In fact, if the Big10 were sniffing around the ACC teams, ESPN may not want to completely discredit the effectiveness of GOR's to keep those teams from jumping and dropping the value of their entity.

 

[isucy86]

No offense at all, but I'm just tired of seeing people bring up all these possibilities that have no chance of keeping ISU football viable whatsoever.

We either get an invite to the B1G, or we join some kind of Big 12 PAC 12 merger.... those are basically the ONLY two options for the survival of ISU football folks.

Yes, it's VERY depressing to think about, but it's the cold hard truth.

I would NEVER advocate any kind of violence whatsoever, but the position that OU and TX have put their fans and players in for the next several years is going to be absolutely horrible for them. They are going to be treated really badly. The bad thing is, it's not their fault at all (it's the presidents and AD's), but their fans and players will take the brunt of this.

Totally agree that some type of merger with AAC is a non-starter. I think we may be better off as an independent. It may sound outlandish with the current talk between the Big12 eight and OU/UT, but the SEC may be a landing spot for schools like Okie State, KU, WVU and ISU. Maybe the SEC is done at 16, but maybe their vision is a 20-32 team League.

My hope is there is a pause. Sounds like there is going to be an NCAA re-imagine initiative that will start this fall. The NCAA President has mentioned decentralization. Hopefully, that doesn't mean an every conference for themselves approach. I hope it means the P5/G5 conferences can jointly develop a governance structure run by the conferences for the betterment/stability of ALL P5/G5 schools.

I wholeheartedly agree about your statement on the treatment of OU/UT when they visit Ames. Hope people can keep things in perspective and they are treated respectfully!

 

[Cloneon]

Totally agree that some type of merger with AAC is a non-starter. I think we may be better off as an independent. It may sound outlandish with the current talk between the Big12 eight and OU/UT, but the SEC may be a landing spot for schools like Okie State, KU, WVU and ISU. Maybe the SEC is done at 16, but maybe their vision is a 20-32 team League.

My hope is there is a pause. Sounds like there is going to be an NCAA re-imagine initiative that will start this fall. The NCAA President has mentioned decentralization. Hopefully, that doesn't mean an every conference for themselves approach. I hope it means the P5/G5 conferences can jointly develop a governance structure run by the conferences for the betterment/stability of ALL P5/G5 schools.

I wholeheartedly agree about your statement on the treatment of OU/UT when they visit Ames. Hope people can keep things in perspective and they are treated respectfully!

No offense, but to become an independent requires quality scheduling. With restructuring, I see those in power not needing out-of-conference scheduling. Thus reducing the demand significantly. As disappointing as it is to many, I'm preparing myself for many scenarios. Some very stable. And some appearing to be less stable, but with much greater upward mobility. I like upward mobility ala SEC's rise to power.

 

[isucy86]

They're not planning to be here next year.

They might not be planning, but then their conversations with ESPN were pretty indepth.

The new SEC agreement with ESPN for the CBS games doesn't become effective for 2-3 years. The Big12 threat of litigation is very impactful. If ESPN still has to pay the Big12 it's current media rights- where do the incremental monies come from to keep current SEC schools whole?

Lastly, OU/UT to the SEC is largely based in going to a 12 team playoff. If it only goes to 8, there will be some nervous people in the SEC if they can only get 2-3 playoff teams.

 

[isucy86]

No offense, but to become an independent requires quality scheduling. With restructuring, I see those in power not needing out-of-conference scheduling. Thus reducing the demand significantly. As disappointing as it is to many, I'm preparing myself for many scenarios. Some very stable. And some appearing to be less stable, but with much greater upward mobility. I like upward mobility ala SEC's rise to power.

Is ISU better off financially as an independent?

AAC schools currently make around $9M annually with their ESPN deal. Not sure what the MWC contract is.

Scheduling would be tough, because we could see P5 teams forced to play 10 conference games. But current independents make it work. We just might find ourselves flying around the country.

 

[Cloneon]

Is ISU better off financially as an independent?

AAC schools currently make around $9M annually with their ESPN deal. Not sure what the MWC contract is.

Scheduling would be tough, because we could see P5 teams forced to play 10 conference games. But current independents make it work. We just might find ourselves flying around the country.

Current independents work because there are conferences willing to schedule them. But, the SEC model is justifying phasing that need out entirely. Even Notre Dame will, eventually, be squeezed to join a conference if the SEC's plan pans out.

 

[Cyched]

Be patient, none of this is going to happen anytime soon.

 

[MeanDean]

I would NEVER advocate any kind of violence whatsoever, but the position that OU and TX have put their fans and players in for the next several years is going to be absolutely horrible for them. They are going to be treated really badly. The bad thing is, it's not their fault at all (it's the presidents and AD's), but their fans and players will take the brunt of this.

I haven't researched or even heard much of how the OU and UT fan bases are reacting to this move. But I am going to go ahead and assume what few things I've seen reflect the vast majority of them.

That seems to be along the lines of "About time, those losers (the rest of us) have been riding our coat-tails long enough. Let's go beat the big big boys make some great $$$!"

So though I don't think it will get violent I also won't feel sorry for their fans if they get some **** from the rest of us. They don't care about us, obviously, so f-em, I say.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

We either get an invite to the B1G, or we join some kind of Big 12 PAC 12 merger.... those are basically the ONLY two options for the survival of ISU football folks.

I completely disagree with this. Yes, those are two of the best options (along with a surprise ACC invite) but Iowa State football will “survive” and even thrive in as situation where the 8 leftovers stick together and add something like BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF.

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.

sports.usatoday.com

Our AD budget is $95M. Those four schools are around $70-75M (BYU is my guess as they don’t appear). The league I just described would lose about $20M in TV revenue and perhaps a bit more in bowl revenue etc. at first. There is no doubt we would be behind the B1G and ACC in money. But we would still have something like $60-70M a year.

Texas already has a budget $130M larger than ours and we have beat them on the field and on the court over the past decade.

A 12-team playoff with autobids for the 6 top conference champs would get our league winner into the playoff pretty much every year. We would be relevant and playing for things that matter.

And hoops? Think about the success Baylor, Tech, Houston, OU have had in March Madness. Plus WVU with Huggins. And did I mention Kansas? That’s still one of the top hoops leagues in the country.

It’s so Chicken Little to say that we can’t “survive” without getting into another league. I’ll still be going to games and watching us play Cincinnati for the chance to get a 9-seed in the CFP if it comes to that.

 

[IceCyIce]

So what is up with CA schools not being able to travel to certain states?

 

[cyclones500]

So what is up with CA schools not being able to travel to certain states?

Basics here. (It doesn't prohibit travel using private funding sources)

California bans government travel to states with laws deemed discriminatory to LGBTQ people

The new states added to the sanctions list are Florida, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas and North Dakota, according to California Atty. General Rob Bonta.

www.latimes.com

 

[Clonedogg]

What would happen if the big8 stayed together but as part of the negotiations to let OuT leave early required the SEC to schedule all 8 remaining big12 teams twice with their teams every year for the next 15 years. Meaning every sec team plays a big8 team every year and big8 teams get 2 SEC games every year (a home and away)

we negotiate a separate TV deal and an equal revenue split between conferences for those games. that TV deal would probably be worth around 40-50% of the current big12 deal (16 games per year compared to 45 but with all the big name schools involved) and You’d expect everyone would tune in for those games because of the new hateful relationship between conferences so it would get great tv audiences.

big8 teams get about 25% of their existing revenue from this deal. SEC gets a 10% bump in revenue and when we renegotiate the big8 deal in 2025 with a stable conference and a stable rv contract with the sec I think we could expect 60-75% of existing revenue in a new TV deal. We wouldn’t go up like everyone else but we would stay close to our current revenue and stay a power conference.

you know the SEC, ESPN and OuT all want out of the big12 early and they want it pretty badly so let’s make a deal!

I like this idea, it actually makes sense and is mutually beneficial, so that means it will never happen...

 

[CyBobby]

NFL jr is suicide. If they do that, college sports in general are dead as we know it. I don't think that will happen.

Accordint to Kirk Herbstreit NFL JUNIOR IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SEC HAS IN MIND FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL....

I expect this ALL TO END UP IN THE COURT SYSTEM...& the remaining Big 12 teams to get money from good old espn.....

 

[CyBobby]

My ideal new conference. B12 2.0
Northeast: ISU, KU, KsU, Cincinnati, WVU, Navy.
Southwest: OSU, Tech, TCU, Airforce, BYU Houston.

If we can't get into the B1G then I agree with most of your choices esp HOUSTON.....

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

So we can expect TCU to get picked up anytime then? DFW metro is 3x and 6x that of Pitt and Louisville.

And ISU -Okie st on Fox drew more viewers than Pitt vs the great White Whale of Notre Dame.

So no, Pitt and Louisville aren’t valuable. They aren’t horrible, but these aren’t big markets, don’t draw eyeballs if not playing ND or Clemson, and have attendance in the 40s.

People need to get past this idea of TV market size, its the outdated way of thinking. Going forward its going to be about butts in the seats, because as we move to streaming, that gives a network an idea of the interest of the fan base.
I would bet there are 10 to 15 teams that actually move the needle ratings wise the rest of us are stuck with the concept that when we are on one of the major platforms, the ratings are good, but when they are on one of the side platforms, BTN+, FS1, LHN, the ratings dip.
The last full season 2019, Pitt averaged 43,372, a game, Louisville 49,913, compare that to ISU 59,974 and OSU 54,817 in total attendence.

New game, New rules, its really that simple.

2019.pdf (ncaa.org)

 

[Rods79]

I completely disagree with this. Yes, those are two of the best options (along with a surprise ACC invite) but Iowa State football will “survive” and even thrive in as situation where the 8 leftovers stick together and add something like BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF.

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.

sports.usatoday.com

Our AD budget is $95M. Those four schools are around $70-75M (BYU is my guess as they don’t appear). The league I just described would lose about $20M in TV revenue and perhaps a bit more in bowl revenue etc. at first. There is no doubt we would be behind the B1G and ACC in money. But we would still have something like $60-70M a year.

Texas already has a budget $130M larger than ours and we have beat them on the field and on the court over the past decade.

A 12-team playoff with autobids for the 6 top conference champs would get our league winner into the playoff pretty much every year. We would be relevant and playing for things that matter.

And hoops? Think about the success Baylor, Tech, Houston, OU have had in March Madness. Plus WVU with Huggins. And did I mention Kansas? That’s still one of the top hoops leagues in the country.

It’s so Chicken Little to say that we can’t “survive” without getting into another league. I’ll still be going to games and watching us play Cincinnati for the chance to get a 9-seed in the CFP if it comes to that.

Lots of assumptions here (but lots of assumptions everywhere, sigh). We already get dinged on national perception the polls with TX/OU in the league. We could very easily, and would IMO, slip below the PAC in national perception…and the PAC would have missed out of the playoffs last year by a long shot under the proposed 12-team model for UC and Coastal. Our conference never grew out of the negative sentiment from Realignment 2011, so it’s pretty bold to think we’d out-live it this go around with no “anchor brands”. We would be the joke conference, the one where everyone would look to point out their issues with college football realignment.

Also, I think a lot of people are really underestimating what a 27%-37%(!) revenue reduction does to the books. Would we survive, sure, but not nearly at the level where we are now to be relevant…while the other conferences just zoom by us exponentially in value by simply being in one of the “traditional” conferences. It is the wealth consolidation model, 99% vs. 1%, at the college football level.

 

[Cloneon]

They're not planning to be here next year.

They can plan all they want. The B12 is 100% in control of that.