don’t be silly. OU isn’t thinking 2/3. They are still in the playoff hunt. They need ALL 3. We will have their full attention.
2021 Big 12 Championship Computer Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
don’t be silly. OU isn’t thinking 2/3. They are still in the playoff hunt. They need ALL 3. We will have their full attention.
I think our guys were beat up from a seriously physical game vs OSU. Combine that with WV going Leroy Jenkins, Rose being out, and some quality reffing... not enough in the tank to dig deep from in a close game.
Full update tomorrow after Massey's rankings incorporate today's games, but this is the only way ISU makes the championship game now:
- Iowa State wins out.
- Baylor loses to both Kansas State and Texas Tech.
- Either and/or both:
- Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma -- then OSU's in first at 8-1, and ISU wins the tiebreaker over OU for second.
- OSU loses to Tech -- then (assuming OSU lost the game above) Oklahoma's in first at 7-2, and ISU wins the tiebreaker over OSU for second.
Last edited:
Cheering for Okie State to win out and take the title. Don’t want OU winning again and have refused to cheer for Baylor under almost any circumstance.
Plus Okie state might actually have a chance at the playoff now. Them getting in helps out bowl placement.
This scenario is not as crazy as I thought. Still not very likely, but not 100% impossible.
Not worth even thinking about unless it’s still alive after next week though.
The three ways I see:
A. Iowa State wins out, Baylor loses out, Oklahoma State wins out. We play Oklahoma State.
B. Iowa State wins out, Baylor loses out, Oklahoma State loses to Texas Tech. We play the Bedlam winner.
C. Iowa State wins out, Kansas State wins out, Oklahoma State loses out. We play Oklahoma.
Last edited:
What scenario happens if K state wins out past the Baylor game? I figured we needed Baylor to lose out no matter what. Another scenario left in there?
I edited my post. See above. Basically in addition to winning out, we need Kansas State to beat Baylor next week. If either of those things doesn’t happen, we’re eliminated. Beyond that, it’s complicated.
Say ISU beats Oklahoma, and Kansas State beats Baylor to keep our chances alive. We’ll want Texas Tech to beat Oklahoma State to increase our chances, but if the Cowboys win, we might still be ok. In the final week (assuming OSU beats Tech next week) we would need to beat TCU, have Texas Tech beat Baylor, and have Oklahoma State win Bedlam. This to me seems like our most realistic path.
But say Tech does beat Oklahoma State next week. Assuming we don’t get eliminated by losing or by Baylor beating Kansas State, we would have a couple different paths the final week. One would be beating TCU and Tech beating Baylor. Bedlam would determine our championship game opponent. The other path would be beating TCU, Oklahoma winning Bedlam, and Kansas State beating Texas. This path would allow us to survive a Baylor win over Texas Tech. (Kansas State needing to win out in this scenario is about making sure they’re one of the teams tied for 2nd at 6-3 with OSU, ISU, and BU. They and BU would be 1-2 against the other tied teams, ISU and OSU would be 2-1, and we would have the tiebreaker. If KSU were to lose to Texas, only ISU, OSU, and BU would be tied. We’d all be 1-1 against each other, so it would move to the next tiebreaker, which would eliminate OSU due to record against the 1st place team, then Baylor would be in over us due to head to head.)
Last edited:
What if Iowa state beats Iowa state which happens a lot this season
So basically there is a scenario where Baylor doesn’t lose out and we get in because then K State crashes into the tiebreakers?
Jfc, it's over, this team is Memphis bound to play in 40 degree weather in a game nobody will watch.
Lol, yeah, and if about 30 things happened last week in my fantasy football I would have won instead of losing 170-89.
Oklahoma St.: 87.8% (55.2% 1st, 32.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 65.6% (37.9% 1st, 27.7% 2nd)
Baylor: 42.8% (7.0% 1st, 35.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 3.7% (0.0% 1st, 3.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 53.5%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 31.9%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 10.9%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 2.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 1.2%
ISU record chances:
6-6: 12.1%
7-5: 53.9%
8-4: 34.0%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 10.8%
Oklahoma: 65.6% (37.9% 1st, 27.7% 2nd)
Baylor: 42.8% (7.0% 1st, 35.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 3.7% (0.0% 1st, 3.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 53.5%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 31.9%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 10.9%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 2.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 1.2%
ISU record chances:
6-6: 12.1%
7-5: 53.9%
8-4: 34.0%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 10.8%
Agree. The Fat Lady was singing as the 62 yarder went thru the uprights.
It always amazes me how people who can’t follow these scenarios assume that we’re talking about needing ten unlikely things to happen. I’m not getting my hopes up but if we beat Oklahoma next week it would be nice to have a chance going into the final week.
