2021 Big 12 Championship Computer Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
After yesterday's games:
Oklahoma: 78.6% (52.4% 1st, 26.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 72.5% (35.0% 1st, 37.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 29.9% (8.3% 1st, 21.6% 2nd)
Baylor: 18.7% (4.3% 1st, 14.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
TCU: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 53.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 17.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 10.0%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 9.0%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 7.3%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 2.4%
ISU record chances:
6-6: 3.5%
7-5: 24.2%
8-4: 48.5%
9-3: 23.9%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.3%
8-4: 15.2%
9-3: 93.9%
Oklahoma: 78.6% (52.4% 1st, 26.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 72.5% (35.0% 1st, 37.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 29.9% (8.3% 1st, 21.6% 2nd)
Baylor: 18.7% (4.3% 1st, 14.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
TCU: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 53.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 17.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 10.0%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 9.0%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 7.3%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 2.4%
ISU record chances:
6-6: 3.5%
7-5: 24.2%
8-4: 48.5%
9-3: 23.9%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.3%
8-4: 15.2%
9-3: 93.9%
Tech, OK, TCU.
We gotta win’em all. And we can.
This is gonna be fun.
We gotta win’em all. And we can.
This is gonna be fun.
using mred's site, I noticed Tech has ISU, Ok St and Baylor left. Tough stretch when you need one more to go bowling.
The game against Baylor would set up for them. In-State rivalry matchup with Baylor potentially being out of the conference race by then.
Time will tell, but I’m not sure Oklahoma can beat Oklahoma state right now. If we can beat ou, I think they probably finish with two losses.
The negative is they know if they beat us they make the championship game. Would love them looking forward.
Being the middle game for OU in their tough stretch could be to our benefit too. They know they need at least 2 of the 3, and with Bedlam being last they want that one most.
Wouldn’t surprise me to see them beat Baylor then have a bit of a letdown/look ahead game against us with the Pokes looming the next weekend.
Wouldn’t surprise me to see them beat Baylor then have a bit of a letdown/look ahead game against us with the Pokes looming the next weekend.
This week's games and how they affect ISU's championship game odds:
- Iowa St. over Texas Tech: 31.6% (6.9% to 38.5%)
- TCU over Oklahoma St.: 14.7% (26.4% to 41.1%)
- Oklahoma over Baylor: 9.9% (24.5% to 34.4%)
- Kansas St. over West Virginia: 1.4% (29.0% to 30.4%)
- Kansas over Texas: 0.3% (30.0% to 30.3%)
- TCU over Oklahoma St.: 14.7% (26.4% to 41.1%)
- Texas Tech over Oklahoma St.: 13.7% (26.0% to 39.7%)
- Oklahoma over Oklahoma St.: 12.3% (23.6% to 35.9%)
- Oklahoma over Baylor: 9.9% (24.5% to 34.4%)
- Kansas St. over Baylor: 9.4% (25.5% to 34.9%)
- Texas Tech over Baylor: 7.9% (27.7% to 35.6%)
- Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 53.4% (7.6% to 61.0%)
- Iowa St. over Texas Tech: 31.6% (6.9% to 38.5%)
- Iowa St. over TCU: 30.1% (6.4% to 36.5%)
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I couldn't intuitively figure out why OSU losing to TCU was the most important remaining outcome not involving ISU, so I looked into it more. This is pretty surprising to me:
Chances of making the title game at 6-3 with OSU beating TCU: 8.8%
Chances of making the title game at 6-3 with TCU beating OSU: 36.4%
Further, if OSU wins the next two weeks against TCU and Tech, the 6-3 odds drop all the way to 0.9% -- it becomes almost impossible for Iowa State if they don't win out.
Chances of making the title game at 6-3 with OSU beating TCU: 8.8%
Chances of making the title game at 6-3 with TCU beating OSU: 36.4%
Further, if OSU wins the next two weeks against TCU and Tech, the 6-3 odds drop all the way to 0.9% -- it becomes almost impossible for Iowa State if they don't win out.
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If we are being choosey, I wanted a second shot at Baylor. I’ll be satisfied with just making the champ game at this point, but I don’t feel confident we would beat OU or OSU a second time.
Clearly this team is a different team on the road for some reason. My expectations of the OU game are not high.
We did alright in Manhattan.
Maybe it's just in dead environments? Baylor is never much of a great environment and WVU seemed to not really turn out for our game either.
Between my program and mred's scenario generator, I think this is the only scenario where a 7-2 Iowa State wouldn't go to the championship game:
- ISU wins out.
- Baylor wins out.
- OSU beats OU and at least one of TCU or Tech:
- If OSU wins out, then 8-1 OSU wins the conference. ISU and Baylor are tied 7-2, with Baylor getting the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- If OSU loses to TCU, it depends on whether West Virginia finishes higher in the standings than TCU. If WV finishes higher, Iowa State loses the tiebreaker. If they are tied in the standings or TCU is ahead of WV, ISU is #1.
- If OSU loses to Tech, it depends on whether West Virginia finishes higher in the standings than Tech. If WV finishes higher, Iowa State loses the tiebreaker. If they are tied in the standings or Tech is ahead of WV, ISU is #1.
Put a different way: If Oklahoma beats Baylor this weekend, a 7-2 Iowa State is guaranteed to make the title game.
I’d love to see Oklahoma lose to us and Okie State so that we hold the tiebreaker over Oklahoma (taking into account that Oklahoma obviously takes care of Baylor). The championship game would be ISU v Oklahoma State with Oklahoma being on the outside.
