4/7 Weather Thread
- Thread starter Clones21
- Start date
Man did anyone see that weather yesterday? Freakin CRAZY it rained! can you believe that? it RAINED!!
Breezy too. 5 mph sustained with 12 mph gusts? Waiting for the hurricane to pop off Lake Laverne.
I ussually try not to pay attention to the weather until 1-2 days out. Normally they can't get a forcast right. It must be nice to be a Meteorologist, only having to be correct half the time. The only thing better would to be a teacher of meteorology. You would only have to work half the year, and get half of it right.
If it would be so nice...why don't you go to school and become a teacher of meteorology?
same i just hate that ames usually misses out on the worst of the storms. exception being august last year...that was a **** load of rain
Or play pro baseball. Get a hit a third of the time and you're an all-star. How hard can it be?
NWS Storm Prediction Center issued a Day 3 moderate risk for severe thunderstorms including eastern Iowa. They have issued a moderate risk on the Day 3 forecast only nine times (including this one) since 2000.
Storm Prediction Center Apr 8, 2011 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC Day 3 Moderates In Context | Ramblings of a Graduate Student
Storm Prediction Center Apr 8, 2011 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC Day 3 Moderates In Context | Ramblings of a Graduate Student
Saturday and Sunday are still looking explosive for much of Iowa. I am still liking Saturday from a chasing standpoint more than Sunday, although Sunday will likely be worse in terms of storm coverage/severity. Storms on Sunday will be nearly unchaseable as the storm speeds will be very fast. Saturday's storms should be in good chase terrain from roughly I-80 north.
Everyone in Iowa needs to pay attention to the weather this weekend, especially Sunday.
Everyone in Iowa needs to pay attention to the weather this weekend, especially Sunday.
I agree on Saturday, in fact I think Sunday has a greater risk of being a bust, at least around DSM/Metro, SW or Western Iowa.
Saturday dew points should be higher-->more low-level moisture to work with. Cap will be an issue, but what does go should be impressive.
I do have reservations about winds being more westerly on Sunday, cranking in more dry air and pushing the dryline through that will hinder the ability to break the cap...even as it weakens. I think a lot of the big-time action Sunday will be much more NE Iowa and into the Twin Cities/SW Wisc area. Still will be a risk along the dryline in central Iowa Sunday, especially if the moisture holds on into early evening as cap breaks.
I have read there is beginning to be signs that trough is going to be slower coming through, and although winds will start with a SSW component early....they will back to SSE by afternoon. And development will start just east of Mizzou river and not become a squall line until east of DSM metro area. This will leave the cental Iowa area in the bullseye for the individual super cells with very large hail and tornado's....before morphing into a squall line with damaging winds and hail in eastern Iowa. This is what I am thinking also considering how far south the trough is digging out west. If this pans out..........someone in this area is getting hammered!
Being in my particular location, I'm most concerned with Sunday at the moment (SE MN). Saturday's storms up my way should stay elevated with the main threat for large hail. Will need to watch any storm that fires in proximity to the warm front though. If that happens I could see an Isolated Tornado. The time I'm watching in my area is from sunset through the early part of Saturday night.
Sunday is an all or nothing scenario. If storms go they will be very explosive and become severe very quickly. Like others have mentioned there will be a strong cap set in place, it'll take a bit to break it but I think we will in my area. Watch out for large hail, damaging wind and strong tornadoes. The time I'm looking at for this would be 3pm-8pm in SE MN and No IA.
Everyone please be safe this weekend. Keep an eye on the weather and grab the forecast before you head out for the day. Looks like this could turn out being an outbreak type day if the forecast holds true.
Well I'm in Des Moines tonight. I'm going to head west to around Avoca, IA in the afternoon. I'm thinking storms will fire around the Missouri river by around 6 pm becoming quickly severe and moving northeast.
Will look things over in the morning.
Will look things over in the morning.
Not a bad spot but I think a bit further to the north is a better bet, Denison or so. Think I-80 might be a bit far south of the warm front.
Probably right. We'll see how it looks in the morning. I hope to at least put my new camera to work... haha.
Forecast seems to be holding for now. Western/NW Iowa at greatest risk today. SPC lining up with my earlier thoughts about dryline possibly killing storms in C. Iowa/Metro, nudging moderate risk slightly east for Sunday. Still looking quite active for your area.
If cap breaks early in Iowa on Sunday, then all bets are off, so stay tuned to forecast or a weather radio today and tomorrow, it will be one of those days where the weather can turn in about 15 minutes.
