Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[AuH2O]

They're kind of like the southern Rutgers.

At some point, a cable company is going to say no to the Big Ten Network. Heck, up here in the Twin Cities (a Big Ten city with pretty good college support) something like 80% of the cable customers didn't want the Big Ten Network on the primary tier of channels but it was pushed through. I suppose that the Big Ten would do their research to see if the cable thing would still work in Atlanta. If not, Georgia Tech would probably be left out.

If the Big 10 thinks they are going to be able to easily jam BTN on every basic cable and Sat package in Georgia, or even the Atlanta metro because they have GT they are in for a rude awakening. GTs ratings were not very good in their recent success under Paul Johnson.

 

[KnappShack]

If the Big 10 thinks they are going to be able jam BTN on every basic cable and Sat package in Georgia, or even the Atlanta metro because they have GT they are in for a rude awakening. GTs ratings were not very good in their recent success under Paul Johnson.

Is the Superstation still around?

WTBS your home for Big Ten athletics. Stick around for the Four Horsemen vs the Road Warriors live from the Omni right after the Rutgers game

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If the Big 10 thinks they are going to be able to easily jam BTN on every basic cable and Sat package in Georgia, or even the Atlanta metro because they have GT they are in for a rude awakening. GTs ratings were not very good in their recent success under Paul Johnson.

Rutgers was not exactly a ratings juggernaut in Brooklyn and Manhattan circa 2012.

 

[jcyclonee]

If the Big 10 thinks they are going to be able to easily jam BTN on every basic cable and Sat package in Georgia, or even the Atlanta metro because they have GT they are in for a rude awakening. GTs ratings were not very good in their recent success under Paul Johnson.

I agree but they pulled a rabbit out of their hat with Rutgers and they managed to get it on DC cable which was only a little less miraculous. Getting people to pay for a product they don't want is part of what made Wells Fargo the biggest bank in the world.

 

[cykadelic2]

Yes, the SEC and their broker ESPN are driving this thing. I think it favors occurring in 5 years.
Clemson will never have a higher valuation (see FSU as a cautionary tale), UNC's ability to dictate the breakup decreases with each year, Duke post Coach K could make it harder for them to leverage their way into either.

Eventually the BIG will have to jump in, or it will be a P1 situation. Delaney would have had them exploiting this and getting with the times, adding 6 ACC schools if that is what it took to secure the BIGs footprint in the South and hedge the SEC's play. But Warren and current leadership are as good.

The BIG is going to have to rely on the "we promise to invite you in 10 years" slow play to 2-4 ACC members, and hope it doesn't get leaked. Once it is leaked, ESPN and fear would take it from there to finish off the ACC.

With things like the bathroom bill response by the ACC getting backlash in NC, politics will also have a say. Add in going to the BIG and having VT and NC St in the SEC is less than appealing, and the SEC being a much better brand in the South, and I fear we're looking at a SEC with OuT and the top 4-6 most valuable ACC brands. They may add KU to help the basketball bluebloods feel at home.

You are again omitting the fact that the ACC has a GOR thru 2035 and the schools are party to that, not ESPN. That GOR will not be blown up as you suggest here until 2032 at the earliest.

 

[AuH2O]

Rutgers was not exactly a ratings juggernaut in Brooklyn and Manhattan circa 2012.

The options for TV and media, comfort with alternatives to cable and sat, and sensitivity to price is drastically different than it was a decade ago.

 

[KnappShack]

I hate realignment. Some interesting takes here. Boise St might not want to jump to the AAC because of a possible Big 12 invite down the road. Memphis too.

CSU and AF to the AAC?

Conference realignment: The American could add new schools soon, and the Mountain West is a target

A western wing of Mountain West schools is believed to be among the top conference realignment targets for the AAC.

theathletic.com

 

[Win5002]

You are again omitting the fact that the ACC has a GOR thru 2035 and the schools are party to that, not ESPN. That GOR will not be blown up as you suggest here until 2032 at the earliest.

The ACC wouldn't be blown up for a 10-15M difference but when you start talking 40M+ I think they negotiate out of it.

 

[surly]

I hate realignment.

This. Fans seem more interested in the subject than discussing either football or basketball.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

This. Fans seem more interested in the subject than discussing either football or basketball.

Yeah its kinda like the NBA, more people talk about where certain players will end up and interteam drama then care about the games themselves. To be fair though there isn't much to talk about for football midweek.

 

[WhoISthis]

The state of North Carolina is culturally different in many pockets from "the South" and nowhere is this more true than the Triangle region that includes Chapel Hill. UVA and UNC are better cultural fits in the B1G than the SEC, before you even consider the academic prestige of either.

Checkout the response to the ACC pulling the tournament from NC due to the Bathroom bill.

The cultural argument is not conclusively in the favor of the BIG.

 

[WhoISthis]

You are again omitting the fact that the ACC has a GOR thru 2035 and the schools are party to that, not ESPN. That GOR will not be blown up as you suggest here until 2032 at the earliest.

You’re greatly overestimating when the extrinsic value diminishes. As soon as it’s known Clemson and Co are leaving TBD, there’s little value in riding out the GOR. Perhaps if 20+ years. But at 10, and with more money to be made, fear of not finding a spot by some, the leverage of the schools to dictate who/where approaching zero by 2031/2032, it’ll happen far earlier than OuT.

How many are needed to be left to collect on the GOR? What’s the clauses that ESPN put in for renegotiation based on departures?

And there’s always the option of litigation. We’ll see how much the Big 12 gets from OuT. If ESPN wanted 4 top brands to the SEC, and those 4 want to move, it would not be hard to move a few more to the Big 12. Then move the GOR to court, assuming that’s even needed.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You’re greatly overestimating when the extrinsic value diminishes. As soon as it’s known Clemson and Co are leaving TBD, there’s little value in riding out the GOR. Perhaps if 20+ years. But at 10, and with more money to be made, fear of not finding a spot by some, the leverage of the schools to dictate who/where approaching zero by 2031/2032, it’ll happen far earlier than OuT.

How many are needed to be left to collect on the GOR? What’s the clauses that ESPN put in for renegotiation based on departures?

And there’s always the option of litigation. We’ll see how much the Big 12 gets from OuT. If ESPN wanted 4 top brands to the SEC, and those 4 want to move, it would not be hard to move a few more to the Big 12. Then move the GOR to court, assuming that’s even needed.

This post shows just how little you understand about the ACC's ironclad GOR. No ACC team is going anywhere for at least 10 years. The SEC just hit their homerun and the big ten doesn't want anything to change. ESPN doesn't want to renegotiate when they have such an amazing deal already with the ACC. This isnt the NBA where people just demand to leave mid contract. The ACC signed a deal and they have to live with it.

 

[Itjustdoesn'tmatter]

This post shows just how little you understand about the ACC's ironclad GOR. No ACC team is going anywhere for at least 10 years. The SEC just hit their homerun and the big ten doesn't want anything to change. ESPN doesn't want to renegotiate when they have such an amazing deal already with the ACC. This isnt the NBA where people just demand to leave mid contract. The ACC signed a deal and they have to live with it.

I don't know the GOR contract. What happens if the ACC votes to disband?

I'm not suggesting it would happen, I'm just curious because people talked about how Espn would save a billion if the BIG XII had broken up.

 

[Itjustdoesn'tmatter]

On that note, if the ACC did break up, who would be a target for the BIG XII?

 

[Cyclones1969]

I don't know the GOR contract. What happens if the ACC votes to disband?

I'm not suggesting it would happen, I'm just curious because people talked about how Espn would save a billion if the BIG XII had broken up.

If you’re any team in the ACC not named Clemson, and maybe Florida state and Miami, maybe, why on earth would you vote to take less money?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I don't know the GOR contract. What happens if the ACC votes to disband?

I'm not suggesting it would happen, I'm just curious because people talked about how Espn would save a billion if the BIG XII had broken up.

The ACC would never vote to disband. Half the teams in the conference have almost no value and would never agree to such a thing. What you are asking for is a hypothetical that has no chance of ever happening.

 

[Itjustdoesn'tmatter]

If you’re any team in the ACC not named Clemson, and maybe Florida state and Miami, maybe, why on earth would you vote to take less money?

As I'm sure you know, I don't know what I'm talking about.

But I wonder if Clemson (& maybe some other school) signed an agreement to leave in 2036 to go to another conference, well... the clock would then be ticking on the ACC. Just like we heard the clock ticking when OuT said they are leaving in 2025. If the other schools put out feelers and thought they might have a landing place, why hang around. (if there's a way out that saves you the huge payout) If things change in 14 years you might not have a landing place and would be left out to dry. If most of the schools have an invite, to the B1G, PAC12 or BIG XII why not make the change now rather than hope the ACC will find a way to survive.

Of course, I don't think this will happen, but if Espn can try to kill us, anything CAN happen. ;-)

 

[FriendlySpartan]

As I'm sure you know, I don't know what I'm talking about.

But I wonder if Clemson (& maybe some other school) signed an agreement to leave in 2036 to go to another conference, well... the clock would then be ticking on the ACC. Just like we heard the clock ticking when OuT said they are leaving in 2025. If the other schools put out feelers and thought they might have a landing place, why hang around. (if there's a way out that saves you the huge payout) If things change in 14 years you might not have a landing place and would be left out to dry. If you most of the schools have an invite, to the B1G, PAC12 or BIG XII why not make the change now rather than hope the ACC will find a way to survive.

Of course, I don't think this will happen, but if Espn can try to kill us, anything CAN happen. ;-)

Totally fair but in that case if clemson and lets say FSU were to leave in 2036 they would most likely try to add 2 more schools. At this point close to half the conference wouldn't have a landing spot kinda like the big 12 which is why the big 12 added and didn't disband. Now in 2036 all bets are off and who knows what will happen then but speculating on something 14 years in the future is a fools errand.

 

[LLCoolCY]

I hate realignment. Some interesting takes here. Boise St might not want to jump to the AAC because of a possible Big 12 invite down the road. Memphis too.

CSU and AF to the AAC?

Conference realignment: The American could add new schools soon, and the Mountain West is a target

A western wing of Mountain West schools is believed to be among the top conference realignment targets for the AAC.

theathletic.com

Ooof, the AAC currently only makes 6 mil and change from their TV deal and likely to move down after losing Houston, Cinci and UCF. I am not sure where BSU and Memphis would end up if they don't take the AAC invite but I fully understand not tying themselves to that deal with a large leaving fee if other leagues expand.

Obviously the "new" big 12 wasn't our preferred option but looks far better then the potential alternative.