mikeiastat-We're still not connecting on this. My point was you can't say the Morgan trend was down based on one year when he did better his second year than his first. And you just can't discard GMac's first year because you want to, and if you did his conference winning percentage would actually be worse since he won more conference games his first year than any other. He's been below 6 ever since and is now at 4, so any way you slice it, that's going the wrong way.
I'm connecting just fine. I don't know how you aren't getting it. I'm not just discarding mac's first year because I want to. here are the trends. You can look at Conf wins if you want to. Then there isn't a trend for Morgan, but he went from 8 and last 6 and do you think he was going to do better or worse losing scholarships? Not a trend yet, but sure looking like it was going to be.
More importantly to the NCAA tourney hopes are his rpi's The numbers supported that he was less and less deserving of a bid to the NCAA. Yes they did get invited to the dance 04-05, but that was an inconsistancy that doesn't happen very offten. And today I don't think would happen.
I guess we'll see if Illinois gets in, but the NCAA is looking less and less at BCS conference record each year, and more and more at rpi, and OOC Scheduling. Fact is in the ouside world (outside of the BIG XII) the teams continued to get worse and were going to have a very hard time getting better, with the loss of schollies coming his way. And again not the only evidence of decline.
03-04 RPI Rank: 56
SOS Rank: 43
Record: 19-13 (8-10)
04-05 RPI Rank: 71
SOS Rank: 76
Record: 19-12 (10-8)
05-06 RPI Rank: 92
SOS Rank: 39
Record: 15-14 (6-11)
06-07 RPI Rank: 130
SOS Rank: 86
Record: 14-16 (6-11)
07-08 RPI Rank: 179
SOS Rank: 76
Record: 13-18 (4-13)
08-09 RPI Rank: 168
SOS Rank: 90
Record: 14-17 (4-13)
09-10 RPI Rank: 114
SOS Rank: 39
Record: 15-16 (4-12)
Mac's 4 year trend is down yes, I have acknowleged that, but if a company turns things around at some point you have to look at the most substantial trend. At worst, the most substantial trend is that of big xII wins as FLAT. And more importantly to the NCAA tournament hopes (RPI) is up for the last 3 years. Like you said one year does not make a trend.
If Google came on the market at 300 a share, was inflated and droped to 100 in year 2, then had 3 years of growth back up to say 250, do you think the market analysts would say that the company was trending down? No, none that knew what they were talking about would. the most dominant Trend for big XII wins only, is currently flat, but to the rest of the world our current RPI dominant trend is up significantly. I'm getting what you are saying, you just don't undersand outliers. The only true trend here is the three year for Mac and the RPI for morgan.
I get it and I hope you do too, now.