They got lucky ONCE. But if we foul, they have to get lucky like THREE or FOUR times in a row. I will take my chances on the latter.
If we foul them, they have to make the 1st FT. Then they have to miss the next FT on purpose, which is difficult to do correctly. And then they have to hope one of their guys gets the rebound. If they get the rebound, then they have to then make another basket on top of that. If we get the rebound off the miss, then they have to foul us immediately. Then they have to hope we miss the first FT. Then hope we also miss the 2nd FT. And if we do, then they have to make a half court shot at the buzzer.
OR... if we don't foul them, they have to just hope their super hot shooting guy can make a guarded 3, which he's done all night long on us. Those odds are much better.