Weather Thread 1/30-2/2: Possible Major Storm

[Iastfan112]

A few people have said latest models scewing heavier fir DSM. Any updates from our experts? Hoping for over 10.

2 of the models showing the lightest precip for Des Moines(NAM and GFS) have gone slightly heavier, GFS probably 7-10(but the 18z run is less reliable), NAM perhaps 4-8. The Canadian and Euro haven't run since this morning at won't be in until later but both were show around a foot of snow.

I'll give a fuller update of my take after midnight once I get the Euro info in.

 

[cloneluke80]

9.4 in in 48 hr forecast:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dmx/fxc/48hourforecastsnowfall.png

 

[Kitkat]

You'll see it come from the deep southwest before moving upstream gathering moisture from the gulf is my guess. It won't start showing up on radar til I'm guessing tomorrow am?

Thanks for the tip, scottie33; that helps a lot.

 

[BigBake]

John Macglaughin sticking close with 5" for DSM metro on 10 pm news.

Any other stations adjust forecast yet or are they holding firm like 8?

 

[MNCYWX]

I think we need a CyBookie request on how much total snowfall DSM will see by Tuesday night. :smile:


I'm sticking with my previous post... 4-8" total (today-tomorrow) snowfall for DSM.

Parts of MO, IL and Extreme SE IA like Keokuk have the chance to see a couple feet of snow.

Even with the lower snowfall expected, winds will be howling making travel very difficult for those in the blizzard warning, impossible in the areas mentioned above.

Lots of Ice around Indianapolis, St. Louis. When you look at it all together we're talking about a infrastructure crippling storm. However... I just don't see it in Des Moines.

Goodnight all! Stay safe tomorrow!

 

[wxman1]

everyone is going with 5

 

[CycloneYoda]

I'm going to get walloped. I'm right on that SE line. My wife has her bag packed, for she won't be coming home from Iowa City tomorrow night. Just me, the kid, some animals, and an insane amount of high quality booze. And of course, a shovel.

 

[RING4CY]

Come on no classes tomorrow!

 

[Iastfan112]

Euro came in lighter, only .68 more of precip. My guess is 6-10 for Des Moines with that being the case. Both the GFS and NAM to varying degrees look like they initialized too weak with the Texas low and too strong or far east with the Montana high so I still place more credence with the Euro but I do think its significantly less likely DSM receives a foot. SE Iowa still looks to be on track for very high amounts though.

 

[Iastfan112]

One comment before I head to bed is I still think there is a chance at higher amounts, the short range RUC has the precip axis farther westward. This could be a situation the global models aren't handling cyclone genesis very well and that the RUC is a better model to use for this particular situation. I'm not experienced enough to make that call.

 

[ISUAgronomist]

Well, that Gulf moisture you need to feed the storm is here. It's pretty intense here in Texas. Just rain where I am but 40mph sustained winds with gusts approaching 60mph. Dallas area is getting winter mix so that area will shut down completely. Stay safe everyone.

 

[jay moe]

No school here today, gonna sit back and watch it snow, already limbering up my back for the expected shoveling.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Doesn't look like we've had much snow in Indianola at all. My boy is going to be ******, because he was talking snow day all last night. Bet he gets tomorrow off though.

 

[cstrunk]

SNOW DAY!! I'm in Dallas for work and we've got a decent amount of sleet. Shut down for the day.

To me, it looks like the slug of precip is trending farther east/south. It also looks like the squall line in east Texas is robbing some of the moisture for the winter precip to the north and west of it. Not a good sign for those of you up north wanting a big storm. Oklahoma, SE Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and points NE of there still look to get the big show.

 

[CONEClone]

KU, KSU, and Mizzou have all canceled class today. I'm in Missouri and I generally think they blow out of proportion all of the weather...but they're forecasting where I live to get 29" of snow. If that turns out to be the case this will be worse than any storm I encountered while in Iowa in the 23 years I was there.

Just to put this into perspective, the Kansas City area was issued a blizzard warning. This is only the second blizzard warning ever that's been issued for this area.

 

[cstrunk]

KU, KSU, and Mizzou have all canceled class today. I'm in Missouri and I generally think they blow out of proportion all of the weather...but they're forecasting where I live to get 29" of snow. If that turns out to be the case this will be worse than any storm I encountered while in Iowa in the 23 years I was there.

Just to put this into perspective, the Kansas City area was issued a blizzard warning. This is only the second blizzard warning ever that's been issued for this area.

Dang, 29"? Who is forecasting that? I haven't seen anyone mention quite that high, but when they forecast almost two feet, what's another half a foot?

That's pretty crazy if it's true that this is only the 2nd blizzard warning issued for KC. I kind of find that one hard to believe.

 

[Iastfan112]

From the Davenport NWS:
National Weather Service Text Product Display

VERIFICATION AT 12Z INDICATES STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
AT A RATE AS FAST OR FASTER THAN PROJECTIONS. COMPARING DATA...PLUS
USING NUMEROUS TECHNIQUES SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY NOT ONLY BE
STRONGER...BUT COULD OCCLUDE OR WRAP UP MORE THAN PLANNED BACK
TOWARD OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS...SNOW-FALL RATES AND POSSIBLE THUNDER-SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT ALSO MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR MORE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
THIS RISK SHOULD BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

Could mean a bit more precip in Des Moines as well.

 

[dmclone]

America **** yeah!

 

[Iastfan112]

Okay I had my doubts last night but yeah looking at trends at the surface and how badly some of the models are doing, as well as a few pro mets take, I'm going out on a limb and saying this storm is coming more west than forecasted, perhaps north as well but that depends on when the low occludes. Higher totals for I-80 south at least.

 

[cyfanatic]

According to this site...United is cancelling all flights in and out of Chicago on Wednesday. That is going to be a mess!

UA Cancel All Operations At ORD 2/2 — Civil Aviation Forum | Airliners.net