Weather Thread 1/30-2/2: Possible Major Storm
- Thread starter Iastfan112
- Start date
Officially 7.1" in DSM right now.
10-12" from Wayne to Monroe to Wappelo county (Corydon-Albia-Ottumwa)
12-15" Iowa City to Davenport. Ottumwa-Davenport numerous thundersnow/lightning strike reports last night.
Rockwell and Quaker as well as many small businesses are closed in Cedar Rapids. It's a mess. Anyone in CR been out yet?
I'm heading out in 20 mins. My work is not closed, and we have to take vacation if we don't come in. /sigh Guess I'll get to find out how bad it is on 380.
Golf clap for FDWxMan who pretty much nailed the total from the onset for DSM. You should be on TV dude. :wideeyed: :notworthy:
Thanks Blum, but I think the celebration will be a little curtailed though once the fiancee gets up and notices that not only did i get my car stuck in the driveway, but her's as well at the end of the driveway in the cul-de-sac (or gigantic drift) trying to get to the station this am.
And the little detail that I won't be there to help dig them out until 1:30 this afternoon.
Whoops.
Oh and thanks for the address. You'll get your fabulous save the date magnet any day now!
FDWxMan- nice job on pretty much nailing the totals for Des Moines, lots of 6-8 inch amounts I see measured around the metro.
For the longer range I think you here are heaping a bit too much praise though, in the short term he did a significantly better job than me. Longer range, I think I did a better job emphasizing there would be a decent storm for central Iowa.
Storm did in fact come north, and was a significant problem for the area.
Now for my forecasting difficulties. I was definitely high overall(SE corner was about right, if slightly on the low end of my range). I see 3 things that made my forecast wrong in order.
1. WAA advection snows- these were consistently forecaster to be persistent and strong enough to drop 4-6 inches of snow over northern Iowa, more like 1-4 over southern portions. Very few places was this true, all the decent snow producing bands stayed well north with a few decent snows in far northern Iowa(Emmetsburg, Esterville). I know I had been predicted to get 4-7 with that first amount but ended up with about 2.
2. Winds- the winds did a much more effective job than I anticipated shattering the nice big, faster accumulating snowflakes. The bufkit-cobb projections had figured 15-20 to 1 snowfall ratios for the storm but this did not occur, looking at the CoCoRaHS liquid equivs it looks like most areas were closer to 12 or 13 to 1.
3.Track- was slightly southeast of where I thought. I had pegged the Euro as my model of choice, and whereas I would say it did the best long term job of tracking this storm, its track was a bit too far to the NW than what actually happened by 20-30 miles.
For the longer range I think you here are heaping a bit too much praise though, in the short term he did a significantly better job than me. Longer range, I think I did a better job emphasizing there would be a decent storm for central Iowa.
Storm did in fact come north, and was a significant problem for the area.
Now for my forecasting difficulties. I was definitely high overall(SE corner was about right, if slightly on the low end of my range). I see 3 things that made my forecast wrong in order.
1. WAA advection snows- these were consistently forecaster to be persistent and strong enough to drop 4-6 inches of snow over northern Iowa, more like 1-4 over southern portions. Very few places was this true, all the decent snow producing bands stayed well north with a few decent snows in far northern Iowa(Emmetsburg, Esterville). I know I had been predicted to get 4-7 with that first amount but ended up with about 2.
2. Winds- the winds did a much more effective job than I anticipated shattering the nice big, faster accumulating snowflakes. The bufkit-cobb projections had figured 15-20 to 1 snowfall ratios for the storm but this did not occur, looking at the CoCoRaHS liquid equivs it looks like most areas were closer to 12 or 13 to 1.
3.Track- was slightly southeast of where I thought. I had pegged the Euro as my model of choice, and whereas I would say it did the best long term job of tracking this storm, its track was a bit too far to the NW than what actually happened by 20-30 miles.
Are many of the side streets open yet? If buses still aren't able to get to stops off the main arteries, what are they going to do, have school and "punish" people that are still stuck at home?
As I say this, I still can't get out because the side streets haven't been plowed yet.
Side streets in my U'dale are plowed....two passes now as of 11am. I was only referring to DSM metro schools too.
I know, but if they weren't passable at 830ish, then a two hour delay wasn't enough time to have school today. Buses start rounds for HS around 6-630 to get kids where they need to be by 730. So adding 2 hours, were the streets plowed and clear enough around 8/830?
Here are a couple of pictures of the wind at the Lakeshore taking the surface off the tennis court by my apartment building. Supposedly 70+mph and the way the building was creaking all last night I'd believe it.
Yes, I took the first picture around 5 last night and the 2nd this morning, but the court was in it's current state probably by 9 last night.
The winds originally won't supposed to die down until later today instead it seems as though they slowed down in the middle of the night.
DSM public closed last night, probably a good idea for those that needed to make other arrangements. In addition, the streets are probably doing better just because everyone planned on staying home today. Less traffic on the roads.
Plus, it's February 2nd and the metro schools haven't had a snow day yet. It's probably easier to call it off when they haven't had several days like they did last year.
FDWxMan, you did a good job, and I'm gonna let you finish, but I did the best job predicting the storm on this site.
