2002 doesn't count since when the teams played they were both really good and I believe ISU may have been the favorite for that game. Obviously by seasons end Iowa was playing much better and ISU much worse. 2005's team went 7-5 so I wouldn't count them as a great team. 2001 game was played between two equal teams imo. In the other year's where ISU beat Iowa, Iowa has not been very good and I feel the same will hold true this year if that happens.
I'm pretty sure they've never been favorites for a game in kinnick, but that's besides the point.
You're wrong, I've already given you multiple examples for seasons where Iowa not only didn't struggle to get into a bowl game, they got into pretty good bowl games by Iowa standards.
I mean, I can't tell you how to feel but the statistics don't really back your feelings. Even allowing for last Fry season and first two awful Kirk seasons, it's still more likely that Iowa makes a bowl game than not after losing the ISU.