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Big 12 Tournament Seed Probabilities (Long)

HoopsTournament

HoopsTournament

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Apr 12, 2006
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I ran all 1024 possible scenarios remaining for the big 12 tournament along with the Massey predicted probability of wins to come up with the probability of seed for each team.

#1
Kansas - 99.97%
West Virginia - 0.03%

#2
West Virginia - 51.00%
Oklahoma - 33.84%
Texas - 13.83%
Baylor - 1.30%
Kansas - 0.03%

#3
Oklahoma - 39.93%
West Virginia - 31.66%
Texas - 18.46%
Baylor - 9.38%
Iowa State - 0.58%

#4
Texas - 37.25%
Baylor - 27.73%
Oklahoma - 17.59%
West Virginia - 12.29%
Iowa State - 5.14%

#5
Baylor - 54.52%
Iowa State - 17.48%
Texas - 16.85%
Oklahoma - 5.63%
West Virginia - 5.02%
Texas Tech - 0.49%

#6
Iowa State - 71.85%
Texas - 13.61%
Baylor - 6.60%
Texas Tech - 4.92%
Oklahoma - 3.01%

#7
Texas Tech - 94.59%
Iowa State - 4.94%
Baylor - 0.47%

#8
Kansas State - 91.36%
Oklahoma State - 7.99%
Texas Christian - 0.65%

#9
Oklahoma State - 91.09%
Kansas State - 7.99%
Texas Christian - 0.92%

#10
Texas Christian - 98.43%
Oklahoma State - 0.91%
Kansas State - 0.95%

For Iowa State, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:

#3 (0.58%)
Baylor - 0.49%
Texas Tech - 0.09%

#4 (5.14%)
Texas (4.74%)
Oklahoma (0.40%)

#5 (17.48%)
Baylor (12.10%)
Oklahoma (2.93%)
Texas (1.25%)
West Virginia (1.20%)

#6 (71.85%)
Oklahoma (31.88%)
West Virginia (18.86%)
Texas (15.79%)
Baylor (5.32%)

#7 (4.94%)
First Round Opponent:
Texas Christian (4.85%)
Kansas State (0.05%)
Oklahoma State (0.04%)

Quarterfinal Opponent:
Oklahoma (3.19%)
Texas (1.13%)
West Virginia (0.54%)
Baylor (0.09%)

So our most likely seed is #6, and the most likely opponent is Oklahoma. I will update the probabilities after the games on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and during the day on Saturday.
 
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Some other tidbits:

Our most likely scenario is a win against OSU and loss at KU. Here are the probabilities if that happens:

#4: 0.65%
#5: 16.86%
#6: 77.45%
#7: 5.03%

If we win both, here are the probabilities:

#3: 3.48%
#4: 27.88%
#5: 30.41%
#6: 38.23%

So even if we win both, our most likely seed is #6.

If we lose both, here are the probabilities:

#6: 87.22%
#7: 12.78%

So even if we lose both, our most likely seed is #6.
 
Well, given how OU has struggled lately, maybe they are a better match up than Baylor or WVU. Anyway you look at it, we need our fans to flood that arena Thursday and make it as much of a home game as possible ( and the 6 seed means many KU fans will probably sell their tickets to us)...
 
I really don't want to see WVU again. Hoping they end up on the other side of the bracket.
 
Here is the scenario where KU would be a #2 seed (and ISU would be a #6 seed in these scenarios):

Massey win probabilities in parenthesis.

ISU defeats OSU (88% chance)
UT defeats KU (40% chance)
BU defeats OU (18% chance)
WVU defeats TTU (82% chance)
OSU defeats UT (43% chance)
WVU defeats BU (48% chance)
ISU defeats KU (19% chance)
TCU defeats OU (14% chance)

Multiplying all the probabilities gets you a 0.03% chance of that happening. So if we are the #6 seed, we will most likely avoid KU until the title (if either of us get there) (and also may sell tickets to us on Thursday).
 
At the beginning of the season, if someone would have told me we had a better chance of being a 7 seed than a 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament, I would have said "Shyeah".

Also, I'm watching Wayne's World on netflix right now.
 
I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

No?
 
Either way, going to be a tough game. We match up well against OU. If buddy is the only one scoring we will win.
 
HoopsTournament said:
I ran all 1024 possible scenarios remaining for the big 12 tournament along with the Massey predicted probability of wins to come up with the probability of seed for each team.

#1
Kansas - 99.97%
West Virginia - 0.03%

#2
West Virginia - 51.00%
Oklahoma - 33.84%
Texas - 13.83%
Baylor - 1.30%
Kansas - 0.03%

#3
Oklahoma - 39.93%
West Virginia - 31.66%
Texas - 18.46%
Baylor - 9.38%
Iowa State - 0.58%

#4
Texas - 37.25%
Baylor - 27.73%
Oklahoma - 17.59%
West Virginia - 12.29%
Iowa State - 5.14%

#5
Baylor - 54.52%
Iowa State - 17.48%
Texas - 16.85%
Oklahoma - 5.63%
West Virginia - 5.02%
Texas Tech - 0.49%

#6
Iowa State - 71.85%
Texas - 13.61%
Baylor - 6.60%
Texas Tech - 4.92%
Oklahoma - 3.01%

#7
Texas Tech - 94.59%
Iowa State - 4.94%
Baylor - 0.47%

#8
Kansas State - 91.36%
Oklahoma State - 7.99%
Texas Christian - 0.65%

#9
Oklahoma State - 91.09%
Kansas State - 7.99%
Texas Christian - 0.92%

#10
Texas Christian - 98.43%
Oklahoma State - 0.91%
Kansas State - 0.95%

For Iowa State, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:

#3 (0.58%)
Baylor - 0.49%
Texas Tech - 0.09%

#4 (5.14%)
Texas (4.74%)
Oklahoma (0.40%)

#5 (17.48%)
Baylor (12.10%)
Oklahoma (2.93%)
Texas (1.25%)
West Virginia (1.20%)

#6 (71.85%)
Oklahoma (31.88%)
West Virginia (18.86%)
Texas (15.79%)
Baylor (5.32%)

#7 (4.94%)
First Round Opponent:
Texas Christian (4.85%)
Kansas State (0.05%)
Oklahoma State (0.04%)

Quarterfinal Opponent:
Oklahoma (3.19%)
Texas (1.13%)
West Virginia (0.54%)
Baylor (0.09%)

So our most likely seed is #6, and the most likely opponent is Oklahoma. I will update the probabilities after the games on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and during the day on Saturday.
Click to expand...


This is awesome! Was thinking about doing this, but I thought it would take too long lol. Thanks!
 
83Clone said:
I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

No?
Click to expand...

Here is the scenario where we end up #7 even if we win 1 of last 2:

Oklahoma beats Baylor
Tech beats West Virginia
West Virginia beats Baylor
Tech beats Kansas State

If all 4 of these happen we, will end up in a 3 or 4 way tie with Baylor or Texas and we lose the tiebreakers and finish 7th.

You are right that we win a two-way tiebreaker with Tech, but we don't win 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers.
 
83Clone said:
I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

No?
Click to expand...

3 Way tie with Baylor, Tech, and ISU... puts us at the 7 seed. That or if we lose both and Tech wins both.
 
83Clone said:
I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

No?
Click to expand...

There is another scenario where Tech, ISU and Baylor all finish 9-9, and we lose the 3 way tiebreaker.
 
83Clone said:
I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.
Click to expand...

A loss by Tech at WVU on Wednesday slots them at #7. An ISU win over OSU Monday doesn't necessarily mean the same.
 
theshadow said:
A loss by Tech at WVU on Wednesday slots them at #7. An ISU win over OSU Monday doesn't necessarily mean the same.
Click to expand...

Have to have 2 different things happen for ISU to not get 7 - Any 2 of the following:

ISU W over OSU
BU W @ OU
TTU L @ WVU
ISU W @ KU
BU W over WVU
TTU L to KSU

If only 1 of those things happen - ISU falls to the 7 seed.
 
Basically root for WVU over TT on Wednesday after we beat OSU tomorrow and we're no worse than 6 seed
 
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