Big 12 Tournament Seed Probabilities (Long)

[jsb]

Either way, going to be a tough game. We match up well against OU. If buddy is the only one scoring we will win.

No matter where we end up 4, 5, or 6 it will be a tough matchup against a good team. But I'll be honest that right now I'd take our chances against Oklahoma over Baylor.

 

[chuckd4735]

And that would include Baylor forfeiting a previous game. They already have 10 wins.

Probably easy for you to figure out I meant 10.

 

[Spanky]

This is awesome! Was thinking about doing this, but I thought it would take too long lol. Thanks!

Meh.
I did the math in my head, looks right.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Updated after ISU-OSU game (and updated Massey Ratings):

#1
Kansas - 99.96%
West Virginia - 0.04%

#2
West Virginia - 51.87%
Oklahoma - 30.69%
Texas - 16.04%
Baylor - 1.36%
Kansas - 0.04%

#3
Oklahoma - 38.78%
West Virginia - 29.11%
Texas - 20.28%
Baylor - 11.20%
Iowa State - 0.63%

#4
Texas - 37.25%
Baylor - 27.73%
Oklahoma - 17.59%
West Virginia - 12.29%
Iowa State - 5.14%

#5
Baylor - 54.74%
Iowa State - 18.06%
Texas - 15.61%
Oklahoma - 6.73%
West Virginia - 4.86%
Texas Tech - 0.00% (ISU win eliminates chance of Tech getting #5 seed)

#6
Iowa State - 71.68%
Texas - 12.88%
Baylor - 7.06%
Texas Tech - 4.29%
Oklahoma - 4.09%

#7
Texas Tech - 95.71%
Iowa State - 3.76%
Baylor - 0.52%

#8
Kansas State - 95.56%
Oklahoma State - 3.62%
Texas Christian - 0.82%

#9
Oklahoma State - 95.25%
Kansas State - 3.93%
Texas Christian - 0.82%

#10
Texas Christian - 98.36%
Oklahoma State - 1.13%
Kansas State - 0.52%

For Iowa State, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:

#3 (0.63%)
Baylor - 0.54%
Texas Tech - 0.09%

#4 (5.86%)
Texas (5.40%)
Oklahoma (0.46%)

#5 (18.06%)
Baylor (11.44%)
Oklahoma (3.55%)
West Virginia (1.60%)
Texas (1.47%)

#6 (71.68%)
Oklahoma (30.47%)
West Virginia (17.75%)
Texas (17.26%)
Baylor (6.21%)

#7 (3.76%)
First Round Opponent:
Texas Christian (3.70%)
Oklahoma State (0.04%)
Kansas State (0.02%)

Quarterfinal Opponent:
Oklahoma (2.37%)
Texas (1.00%)
West Virginia (0.39%)
Baylor (0%) - We now can't play Baylor in a 7-2 game.

This game didn't decide a whole lot as you can see.

 

[Clonehomer]

So now we have to root for Texas tonight? This is assuming we want them as the 3 seed against our likely 6 seed.

 

[cstrunk]

I just hope we play OU first. WVU, Baylor, and UT all scare me as a first round opponent.

 

[CycloneDaddy]

I just hope we play OU first. WVU, Baylor, and UT all scare me as a first round opponent.

UT scares you, really? They shot out of their arse to beat us in Austin. Give me UT any day in KC.

 

[cstrunk]

UT scares you, really? They shot out of their arse to beat us in Austin. Give me UT any day in KC.

To be honest, they all scare me as a first round opponent, the Big 12 is just that good. But OU hasn't been shooting as good as they have been, and jump shots are their strength. It seems like the OU of the past few weeks isn't the same OU as earlier in the season.

 

[HoopsTournament]

I am going selfie on KU, so here are updated probabilities:

#1
Kansas - 100.00% (KU clinches #1 seed)
West Virginia - 0.00%

#2
West Virginia - 56.29%
Oklahoma - 41.85%
Baylor - 1.86%
Texas - 0.00% (Texas cannot be a #2 seed)
Kansas - 0.00%

#3
Oklahoma - 39.33%
West Virginia - 37.62%
Baylor - 11.36%
Texas - 10.63%
Iowa State - 1.06%

#4
Texas - 41.91%
Baylor - 38.58%
Oklahoma - 9.38%
Iowa State - 9.36%
West Virginia - 0.77%

#5
Baylor - 40.61%
Texas - 24.86%
Iowa State - 23.55%
Oklahoma - 5.66%
West Virginia - 5.32%

#6
Iowa State - 62.27%
Texas - 22.60%
Baylor - 7.14%
Texas Tech - 4.20%
Oklahoma - 3.78%

#7
Texas Tech - 95.80%
Iowa State - 3.76%
Baylor - 0.44%

#8
Kansas State - 95.55%
Oklahoma State - 3.62%
Texas Christian - 0.82%

#9
Oklahoma State - 95.25%
Kansas State - 3.93%
Texas Christian - 0.83%

#10
Texas Christian - 98.35%
Oklahoma State - 1.13%
Kansas State - 0.52%

For Iowa State, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:

#3 (1.06%)
Baylor - 0.93%
Texas Tech - 0.13%

#4 (9.36%)
Texas - 8.64%
Oklahoma - 0.72%

#5 (23.55%)
Baylor - 19.09%
Oklahoma - 3.03%
West Virginia - 0.77%
Texas - 0.66%

#6 (62.27%)
Oklahoma - 28.33%
West Virginia - 19.38%
Texas - 9.62%
Baylor - 4.94%

#7 (3.76%)
First Round Opponent:
Texas Christian - 3.70%
Oklahoma State - 0.04%
Kansas State - 0.03%

Quarterfinal Opponent:
Oklahoma - 3.24%
West Virginia - 0.53%
Texas - 0.00%

 

[HoopsTournament]

Here are conditional probabilities and opponents if we lose on Saturday:

#4 (1.12%)
Texas - 0.99%
Oklahoma - 0.13%

#5 (24.30%)
Baylor - 19.78%
Oklahoma - 2.96%
Texas - 0.79%
West Virginia - 0.77%

#6 (69.88%)
Oklahoma - 34.68%
West Virginia - 19.68%
Texas - 10.69%
Baylor - 4.83%

#7 (4.71%)
First Round Opponent:
Texas Christian - 4.62%
Oklahoma State - 0.05%
Kansas State - 0.03%

Quarterfinal Opponent:
Oklahoma - 4.05%
West Virginia - 0.66%

 

[HoopsTournament]

Here are the conditional probabilities if we win on Saturday:

#3 (5.31%)
Baylor -4.65%
Texas Tech -0.66%

#4 (42.31%)
Texas -39.24%
Oklahoma -3.07%

#5 (20.55%)
Baylor -16.34%
Oklahoma -3.29%
WestVirginia - 0.77%
Texas -0.15%

#6 (31.83%)
Oklahoma -2.96%
WestVirginia - 18.18%
Baylor -5.37%
Texas -5.32%

 

[HoopsTournament]

With Oklahoma’s victory over Baylor (after choking) andupdated Massey ratings, here are the new probabilities:
#1
Kansas -100.00%

#2
Oklahoma -53.22%
WestVirginia - 46.78%
Baylor -0.00% (#2 is now down to West Virginia and Oklahoma with Oklahoma now having the higher probability)

#3
WestVirginia - 47.85%
Oklahoma -45.57%
Texas -5.37%
Iowa State -1.21%
Baylor -0.00% (Baylor can now do now better than #4)

#4
Baylor -46.74% (Baylor now has the highest probability of both the #4 and #5. 91.36% chance of playing in 4/5 game)
Texas -44.62%
Iowa State -7.43%
Oklahoma -1.21%
WestVirginia - 0.00% (West Virginia cannot be #4, but they can be #5)

#5
Baylor -44.62%
Texas -28.70%
Iowa State -21.32%
WestVirginia - 5.37%
Oklahoma -0.00% (Oklahoma has clinched Top 4 seed)

#6
Iowa State -65.01% (Not much change – still about 2/3 chance)
Texas -21.32%
Baylor -8.10%
Texas Tech -5.57%
Oklahoma -0.00% (See above)

#7
Texas Tech -94.43%
Iowa State -5.03%
Baylor -0.54%

#8
Kansas State- 95.33%
OklahomaState - 3.89%
TexasChristian - 0.78%

#9
OklahomaState - 95.04%
Kansas State- 4.13%
TexasChristian - 0.83%

#10
TexasChristian - 98.38%
OklahomaState - 1.07%
Kansas State- 0.54%

For IowaState, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:

#3 (1.21%)
Baylor -1.06%
Texas Tech -0.15%

#4 (7.43%)
Texas -7.43% (If we are #4, we will play Texas)
Oklahoma -0.00%

#5 (21.32%)
Baylor -21.32% (If we are #5, we will play Baylor)
Oklahoma -0.00%
WestVirginia - 0.00%
Texas -0.00%

#6 (65.01%)
Oklahoma -36.28% (still most likely scenario)
WestVirginia - 23.37%
Texas -5.37%
Baylor -0.00%

#7 (5.03%)
First RoundOpponent:
TexasChristian - 4.94%
OklahomaState - 0.05%
Kansas State- 0.04%

QuarterfinalOpponent:
Oklahoma -4.32%
WestVirginia - 0.70%

If we win onSaturday, most likely opponent is Texas in 4/5 game, but only at 41%.

#3 (6.72%)
Baylor -5.86%
Texas Tech -0.86%

#4 (41.28%)
Texas -41.28%

#5 (21.32%)
Baylor -21.32%

#6 (30.68%)
WestVirginia - 21.77%
Texas -5.37%
Oklahoma -3.54%

If we lose on Saturday, most likely opponent is still Oklahoma in 3/6 game.
#5 (21.32%)
Baylor -21.32%

#6 (72.55%)
Oklahoma -43.46%
WestVirginia - 23.72%
Texas -5.37%

#7 (6.13%)
First RoundOpponent:
TexasChristian - 6.02%
OklahomaState - 0.07%
Kansas State- 0.05%

QuarterfinalOpponent:
Oklahoma -5.27%
WestVirginia - 0.86%

 

[Cyclonepride]

Still can't see how TT can beat us for seeding now. Best case scenario for them is a tie. First tie breaker is head to head (split). Second is record vs First place (KU, we beat them once, TT was swept)

 

[CyKings]

If Tech wins tomorrow, I assume our odds change, and the 7 seed gets much more realistic.

 

[CyKings]

Still can't see how TT can beat us for seeding now. Best case scenario for them is a tie. First tie breaker is head to head (split). Second is record vs First place (KU, we beat them once, TT was swept)

We lose a 3 way tie with tech and baylor.

 

[Cyclonepride]

We lose a 3 way tie with tech and baylor.

Ah, never thought of that, thanks

 

[BeneventiCy28]

If Tech wins tomorrow, I assume our odds change, and the 7 seed gets much more realistic.

For the sake of getting the 6 seed, I will be looking for West Virginia to win. Now excuse me while I throw up for wanting them to ever win a game.

 

[cyclonpediaJoe]

For the sake of getting the 6 seed, I will be looking for West Virginia to win. Now excuse me while I throw up for wanting them to ever win a game.

That would make everything so much easier! We play on Thursday instead of Wednesday. In the words of Craig: That would make me so happy.

 

[niangstermvp]

No Baylor please - That Motley Crew guy gives me nightmares

 

[chuckd4735]

If we end up playing OU, that would mean WV beats Baylor in Waco, and Im just not sure thats going to happen (although Baylor has lost each conference home game played on a Saturday). I think our most likely opponent is WV in the 3/6 game.

Out of our possible opponents, I want OU because i think we match up the best with them, and they are not the same team we played early in conference play. After that, my order would be Texas, WV, Baylor.