Big 12 Tournament Seed Probabilities (Long)

[CloneinWDSM]

I do not want OU. They can get too hot and go off at any moment. Give me WVU or Texas. I realize we've lost both to WVU but I don't see anyway Paige can go off for 34 against us and the refs allow what they did the last time.

 

[allfourcy]

Scenario: WV wins tonight, but loses at Baylor Sat., and we lose at KU. We are the 6th seed playing the 3-seed WV. Is this correct?

 

[BeneventiCy28]

I want to kill West Virginia. Their "tough D" aka foul fest style of basketball makes me sick.

Also, revenge at Hilton South would be nice.

 

[cycfan1]

Give me WVU or Baylor please

 

[GBC]

If OU wins and WV loses we will play OU, they will be the three. WV would get the tie breaker due splitting with KU. So to make a long story short, WV = 2 and OU is going to be the 3.

 

[HoopsTournament]

I am going selfie on K-State. Combined with West Virginia's win and updated Massey ratings, things are starting to get a bit clearer:

#1
Kansas - 100.00%

#2
West Virginia - 54.42%
Oklahoma - 45.58%

#3
Oklahoma - 53.24%
West Virginia - 45.58%
Iowa State - 1.18%

#4
Texas - 50.00%
Baylor - 41.54%
Iowa State - 7.28%
Oklahoma - 1.18%

#5
Baylor - 50.00%
Texas - 28.80%
Iowa State - 21.20%

#6
Iowa State - 70.34%
Texas - 21.20%
Baylor - 8.46%

#7
Texas Tech - 100.00%

#8
Kansas State - 100.00%

#9
Oklahoma State - 100.00%

#10
Texas Christian - 100.00%

For Iowa State, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:

#3 (1.18%)
Baylor - 1.18%

#4 (7.28%)
Texas - 7.28%

#5 (21.20%)
Baylor - 21.20%

#6 (70.34%)
Oklahoma - 42.99%
West Virginia - 27.35%

If we win on Saturday, most likely seed is #4 against Texas, but #6 is still very possible even with a win.

#3 (6.58%)

Baylor - 6.58%

#4 (40.42%)

Texas - 40.42%

#5 (21.20%)

Baylor - 21.20%

#6 (31.80%)

West Virginia - 27.35%

Oklahoma - 4.45% If we lose on Saturday, most likely seed is #6 against

#5 (21.20%)

Baylor - 21.20%

#6 (78.80%)

Oklahoma - 51.45%

West Virginia - 27.35%

 

[theshadow]

If OU wins and WV loses we will play OU, they will be the three. WV would get the tie breaker due splitting with KU.

Except that OU swept WV, so record vs KU is moot. OU W + WV L = OU 2, WV 3.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Our Seed Scenarios:

#3 (1.18% chance)

Beat KU, WVU beats BU, TCU beats OU

We would play Baylor

#4 (7.28% chance)

Beat KU, WVU beats BU, OU beats TCU

We would play Texas

#5 (21.20% chance)

OSU beats UT, BU beats WVU (our game does not matter in this case)

We would play Baylor

#6 (70.34% chance)

UT beats OSU, BU beats WVU (our game does not matter in this case)

OR

lose to KU, WVU beats BU

First scenario, we would play WVU if OU beats TCU, play OU if they lose to TCU.
Second scenario, we would play OU.

 

[thisISnextyear]

This per the twitter:

Possible ISU #Big12MBB seeds, and the resultant Thursday opponent:
3 vs Baylor
4 vs Texas
5 vs Baylor
6 vs OU or WVU

 

[Hacksaw]

Nice work Hoops! This thread has been great. For a visual representation of the final seeding possibilities, I've created this chart (the weighted odds I use are from Sagarin instead of Massey however):

 

[Wesley]

Sounds like we play either the Pitbulls or the Jolly Green Giants, boith teams that swept us. Or we play the Hellds. Big games all around.

 

[LindenCy]

Sounds like we play either the Pitbulls or the Jolly Green Giants, boith teams that swept us. Or we play the Hellds. Big games all around.

I just don't want to play WV, because even if we win, we lose.

 

[LLCoolCY]

I just don't want to play WV, because even if we win, we lose.

I agree, there physical style causes a lot of exertion of energy by ISU's top 7. One of the reasons I don't expect WV to win 3 straight games in KC either. Playing the next day is a short turn around is difficult to get the player body's back to normal game form.

 

[andyokstate]

This is impressive. 4 pages of nitpicking about tournament seedings. I know I sound like a broken record, but I miss our fans being excited enough to chat about these things. Of my friends who still go to the tournament, they talk about wow, I bet we can pay for our trip if KU and ISU meet in the finals - we'll make a killing when we sell our tickets Friday.

As far as OSU, if we get past KSU, I like our chances against KU. That is, if they get shin splints, dengue fever, and miss the buss.

 

[niangstermvp]

This is impressive. 4 pages of nitpicking about tournament seedings. I know I sound like a broken record, but I miss our fans being excited enough to chat about these things. Of my friends who still go to the tournament, they talk about wow, I bet we can pay for our trip if KU and ISU meet in the finals - we'll make a killing when we sell our tickets Friday.

As far as OSU, if we get past KSU, I like our chances against KU. That is, if they get shin splints, dengue fever, and miss the buss.

Speaking of Okie State - Has Mitchell Solomon been able to get that Spalding tattoo removed from his forehead yet?

 

[andyokstate]

Yes, but Allen's dreadlocks still haven't recovered from their well-timed block of McKay.

 

[2020cy]

Yes, but Allen's dreadlocks still haven't recovered from their well-timed block of McKay.

I was wondering what that was, nice block.

 

[carvers4math]

I like andyokstate and surly. However, even with him on ignore, Tuco just ruins any week we play KU.

 

[chuckd4735]

Big game tonight to determine seeding. If Texas wins, we are the 6th seed unless we beat Kansas. If OSU beats Texas, the chances at a 6 seed take a huge hit. I have had a bad feeling all week that OSU is going to pull this upset, although I had the same feeling about TT/WV, and WV killed TT.

 

[MuseumFaux]

Kind of a related question. Are the game times on Thursday seed specific? I was looking on the Big 12 site and they just say TBA. If they are seed specific, when does the 6 play?