Big 12 Tournament Seed Probabilities (Long)

chuckd4735

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Kind of a related question. Are the game times on Thursday seed specific? I was looking on the Big 12 site and they just say TBA. If they are seed specific, when does the 6 play?

Yes.

4/5 is 11:30 AM
1/8-9 is 1:30 PM (or 30 mins after previous)
2/7-10 is 6 PM
3/6 is 8 PM (or 30 mins after previous game)
 

Cy$

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Texas and OSU play tonight. If ISU wants the 6 seed, then we want Texas to win tonight? If OSU wins it's 50/50 on what game they're on thursday
 

chuckd4735

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Texas and OSU play tonight. If ISU wants the 6 seed, then we want Texas to win tonight? If OSU wins it's 50/50 on what game they're on thursday

If OSU wins tonight, only 6 of the remaining 16 scenarios would put ISU in the 3/6 game, and 2 of those 6 include ISU beating KU.

If Texas wins tonight, 14 of the 16 scenarios have ISU in the 3/6 game.
 

VeloClone

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If OSU wins tonight, only 6 of the remaining 16 scenarios would put ISU in the 3/6 game, and 2 of those 6 include ISU beating KU.

If Texas wins tonight, 14 of the 16 scenarios have ISU in the 3/6 game.

I'm confused. Why do you want ISU as a 6 seed rather than getting a better seed?
 

chuckd4735

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I'm confused. Why do you want ISU as a 6 seed rather than getting a better seed?

I have tickets to the game and have a work meeting Thursday AM that I cant miss. Also would like to be on the lower half of the bracket and avoid a red hot KU until the Championship (if we get that far). ISU can still get the 3 seed, and I would love that if we could, but the 4/5 game, logistically, is a horrible game.
 

HornacekFan1414

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I have tickets to the game and have a work meeting Thursday AM that I cant miss. Also would like to be on the lower half of the bracket and avoid a red hot KU until the Championship (if we get that far). ISU can still get the 3 seed, and I would love that if we could, but the 4/5 game, logistically, is a horrible game.
I have no problem being in the 4/5...means we probably play Baylor as opposed to WVU or OK...and I don't fear KU in KC, only at Allen Field House....
 

CyKings

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I have no problem being in the 4/5...means we probably play Baylor as opposed to WVU or OK...and I don't fear KU in KC, only at Allen Field House....

I'd be happy with 4/5 vs. Texas and then play KU in semis. I think we match up better vs. those 2 teams than vs. BU or WVU. That and then if we were to somehow beat KU in Semis the Championship would be a ... to quote John Walters "DAMN HOME GAME"
 

chuckd4735

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So now, lose tomorrow and we are the 6 seed.

If Baylor beats WVU tomorrow, we are the 6 seed regardless of what happens in our game.

If WVU wins, and we beat KU, we are the 4 seed, unless TCU beats OU, and then we are the 3 seed.
 
Last edited:

HoopsTournament

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Here are new probabilities:

#1
Kansas - 100.00%
#2
West Virginia - 55.71%
Oklahoma - 44.29%
#3
Oklahoma - 54.49%
West Virginia - 44.29%
Iowa State - 1.22%
#4
Texas - 83.30%
Baylor - 7.97%
Iowa State - 7.51%
Oklahoma - 1.22%
#5
Baylor - 83.30%
Texas - 16.70%
#6
Iowa State - 91.27%
Baylor - 8.73%
#7
Texas Tech - 100.00%
#8
Kansas State - 100.00%
#9
Oklahoma State - 100.00%
#10
Texas Christian - 100.00%
For Iowa State, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:
#3 (1.22%)
Baylor - 1.22%
#4 (7.51%)
Texas - 7.51%
#6 (91.27%)
Oklahoma - 46.98%
West Virginia - 44.29%
 

HoopsTournament

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Scenarios

#3 Play Baylor

ISU beats KU, WVU beats BU, TCU beats OU

#4 Play Texas

ISU beats KU, WVU beats BU, OU beats TCU

#6 Play Oklahoma

BU beats WVU, TCU beats OU

OR

KU beats ISU, WVU beats BU

#6 Play West Virginia

BU beats WVU, OU beats TCU
 

chuckd4735

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Scenarios

#3 Play Baylor

ISU beats KU, WVU beats BU, TCU beats OU

#4 Play Texas

ISU beats KU, WVU beats BU, OU beats TCU

#6 Play Oklahoma

BU beats WVU, TCU beats OU

OR

KU beats ISU, WVU beats BU

#6 Play West Virginia

BU beats WVU, OU beats TCU

This is my pick.
 

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