Weather Thread 1/30-2/2: Possible Major Storm

jsmith86

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Dec 5, 2006
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Cedar Rapids
I might just turn into a serious weather junkie. I was looking around on the NOAA site and realized just how similar it is to the CFD stuff I do research on.
 

scyclonekid

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Feb 13, 2008
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Winter storm watch for story county, The wind is going to make this storm a pain in the butt. I think we will see 8-12 inches here, so stock up on booze it is going to be a fun one!!
 
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Iastfan112

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Apr 14, 2006
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Even if we get a bunch of snow everyone should feel fortunate that we're not getting the ice, there is likely going to be an Ice storm in line with what happened in Iowa in the 1991 Halloween ice storm, just liable to cripple some parts of MO, IL, IN and OH for days.
 
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brentblum

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Jul 26, 2007
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Thanks to the weather gurus on the board. The info is much appreciated.
 
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ddisu

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Nov 11, 2009
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This storm is extra sucky. I live in Toledo and my wife has a scheduled C-section on Wed in Cedar Rapids. Real fun to drive an hour if she goes into labor on her own.
 
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AirWalke

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Aug 7, 2006
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Des Moines
Here's the NWS's snowfall forecast, essentially from now until 6 AM Wednesday.

EDIT: Didn't see it'd been posted earlier in the thread. D'OH
 

kingcy

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Sep 16, 2006
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Menlo, Iowa
Do you have a link that proves your local weather bunny's forecast was off, or are you just revising history in order to fall in line with the other sheep? See, the weather predictions in my area have been pretty much spot on, so I'm wondering what makes your area so hard to analyze. Thing is, I don't think they are making as many mistakes as you say they are. You were probably burned once, and now you have a bias grudge against the weather people.

They have been off on every storm this year. They have been off on the amounts the day of the storm. Its just not 13 either. I keep a close eye on this stuff because I have to be prepaired for bad storms.
 

Iastfan112

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Apr 14, 2006
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After seeing the nights runs and how things are unfolding I feel confident enough to make a snow map. Tried to blend the Euro/Canadian and GFS/NAM. If your in the darker colors its likely that the first 2-5 inches of your snowfall comes from the WAA snows today into early tuesday with the primary storm providing the rest. In the lightest blue most of that snow comes from the WAA with very little from the primary.
View attachment 8858
 
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FDWxMan

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Jan 31, 2009
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Des Moines
Do you have a link that proves your local weather bunny's forecast was off, or are you just revising history in order to fall in line with the other sheep? See, the weather predictions in my area have been pretty much spot on, so I'm wondering what makes your area so hard to analyze. Thing is, I don't think they are making as many mistakes as you say they are. You were probably burned once, and now you have a bias grudge against the weather people.

We aren't perfect, but...

Last Time

Weather thread needed for 1/9-1/11?

For this storm, there really isn't a difference between "Winter Weather Advisory" and "Winter Storm Warning" as far as snow totals go.

The reason that the NWS went with ADV over warning is because of the the gradual accumulation you were talking about earlier.

Technically to meet warning criteria according to the NWS, there must be 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours. Basically there will be enough snow, just not fast enough.

More like 6-8 for DSM in 36 hours or 8-11" for western Iowa over 48 hours. Thus, not meeting the time requirements to "technically" be a warning.

For the 10th-11th, DSM got 8.1". Did fall 0.1" outside of my/13's range.
 
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garn91

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Jun 1, 2006
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Ankeny
After seeing the nights runs and how things are unfolding I feel confident enough to make a snow map. Tried to blend the Euro/Canadian and GFS/NAM. If your in the darker colors its likely that the first 2-5 inches of your snowfall comes from the WAA snows today into early tuesday with the primary storm providing the rest. In the lightest blue most of that snow comes from the WAA with very little from the primary.
View attachment 8858

Good job on the map and it seems to go with with the 10-16 total inches that the NWS is saying for those in the Winter Storm Watch.

Of note, The local mets all seem to be down playing the total storm amounts. Channel 13 via KXNO is saying 8-9 total inches and Channel 5 on their website is saying 7-11 inches and Jason Parkin on his independent website is going with 7-11 inches for the metro..
 

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